According to Time ...Santorum was just at 4% this far out of the caucus while others were polling much higher.
Rand is
http://time.com/4184449/iowa-caucus-election-polls/
I'm hoping for top 3. What I really pray for is him to at least beat Terd.
Rand Paul for Peace
I can't wait! It's going to be a shocker for the beltway! As hard as it is, i won't give my iowa prediction. I want it to be a great surprise!
I can't wait to see the media's heads spinning in $#@!ing circles, tbh.
Me too!!Originally Posted by mit26chell
Oh no, they will just down play the results and belittle the significance of Iowa; like why the straw poll went the way of the do do bird and how CPAC results don't get mentioned unless an establishment wins it.
i tell you though, if Rand doesn't place in the top three, I am sure your Fauxes will be drilling in to the heads of viewers how his candidacy is over.
Last edited by KEEF; 01-20-2016 at 06:47 PM.
Yes, at 13 days before the caucus, even in Iowa Santorum was averaging about 6-7% just prior to that. In the 2 weeks before the caucus he surged to an average of 16%, and he actually won 25% in the final vote. Ron Paul though only saw a modest bump in the final 2 weeks, and his final result was spot on with the final polling average.
Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. -Douglas Hofstadter
Life, Liberty, Logic
If Rand beats Cruz they will use it to trash Cruz but will ignore that Rand beat him.
If Rand were to somehow finish higher than Cruz then we'd really be talking. It would require a santorum-like surge for Rand, and a withering collapse for Cruz. anything can happen
Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. -Douglas Hofstadter
Life, Liberty, Logic
Exactly, that would be a huge upset from the media pov but they would find a way to ignore mentioning Rand and the narrative would be the collapse of Cruz. They'll also use it as an opportunity to prop up one of Bush, Rubio, Kasich or Christie, knowing that NH and SC tend to be more favorable towards establishment/moderate types.
If Rand wins, then no amount of spinning will be able to cover up how utterly fail the MSM is.
And watchout with the Randicane!!
Just thinking about that makes me smile....
If Rand beats Cruz in Iowa it's over for Cruz. His campaign is banking on a win there.
To be more realistic(I'm a realist) than the other posters on this thread, I think it will still be quite hard for Rand to get a Santorum-like surge(2012) this time around. But he(Rand) needs to finish top 3 in IA in order to have a chance in NH and, for the nomination. I think it's unlikely but he DOES have a ground/grassroots there(or so he says...).
the caucus system is tough, there are a lot of deals made. I remember back in the day, Buchanan and Alan Keyes people worked together to beat Dole. Then again in 2012, we worked with Romney backers to keep down the Santorum folk and came out with a 70% of the delegates vs 30% for Romney and beat out Santorum who had more than each of us but not more of both slates put together.
it could be that Rand folks come together with Carson backers and put Cruz in 3rd and Trump in fourth. You just don't know how everything will work out, that's why having over 1000 trained leaders makes a difference
Last edited by Joeinmo; 01-20-2016 at 10:53 PM.
If we put Trump in 4th, it could seriously damage his campaign, if not end his chances of winning the nomination. You need top 3 in IA to win NH. If you win either, you have really low chances of winning the GOP nomination.
Rand's iowa campaign manager gave dole a win in the 96 contest and saw forbes get second in 2k! I think we're in good company!!
there are so many possible ways to win, that's what 8 years of hardened caucus goers do for a campaign, the Rand supporters know what to do, you'll have AJ Spiker there leading the thing, he knows how to win. No other campaign has that, it's a huge advantage, and for people to think Rand will be at 5% when the caucus concludes, well they are just idiots. It's not going to happen, Rand knows he has a chance at first for good reason, two election cycles of Ron Paul supporters, this is Iowa folks, they will be there again, a state GOP organization run by half Ron Paul supporters, a voter list that is incredible --- 8 years in the making, an election held when class is in, that is huge, and most importantly a digital communication system that will be incredible --- I don't know for sure but I'm guessing Rand has an app or something similar he is going to roll out for the caucus goers backing him
If we look at how Ron did in IA in 2008 and 2012, which was 10% and 21%, Rand should get at least 16% of the vote. The Iowa Straw Poll showed him 2nd with 18%. So I think this is where Rand SHOULD stand. Let's see what happens!!
Wait a minute... what was Rand's IA campaign manager's intention in the 96 contest that got those results?Rand's iowa campaign manager gave dole a win in the 96 contest and saw forbes get second in 2k! I think we're in good company!!
If Rand has such a good shot at it like the last few posters here are saying, how come his pollings in IA are so low?
On the call with the campaign today they said they were expecting a "decent" placing, with the "gold standard" being "1st - 5th". The numbers they put forth in the call were: expect about 120,000 to turn out (not counting weather, of course), with 20,000+ votes to place in top two, 15,000-20,000 for 3rd.
I'm thinking that they expect close to 30,000 votes, hence the campaign is now pushing to regain Ron's supporters. You see that with the introduction of Ron making calls, the attack on Cruz lately, and a "special guest" to appear in Iowa near the end of the month (which is probably Ron). Cruz might have videos, but we have the real thing. I remarked that it's a checkmate move by Rand. If you look at his strategy, he spent a year attracting non-Ron supporters, now he's calling the liberty vote home.
If Rand wins Iowa, it's going to be a landslide that's going to sweep the early states. Good news is also coming out of NV, too. Not sure that the status of SC is, but remember this:
Worst case scenario is 3rd, by all estimates.
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Because polling is highly inaccurate and as each year passes by it becomes harder to poll. It is illegal to numerically auto dial cell phones for example. So what you basically have in polling now is land line polling with a smattering of cell phones lines dialed by data packs. Well land lines are generally owned by older voters than watch traditional news sources, some of these people get polled a dozen times, while most cell phone owners get zero polls. I remember when I had a business in 2012 getting polled on my business land line a couple times, but nothing on my cell phone.
Very true.. When calling for Rand in Iowa, I get many business lines!
No idea! But he has a track record of doing very well with candidates that have at least been on the ballot in Iowa. Tommy Thompson and Herman Cain don't count because they didn't make it to the caucus. So, he's a campaign manager that knows how the IA caucus works and can help us propel Rand to infinity!!
land lines are allowed to use numerical auto dialers, but I'm sure Rand has data packs of Ron Paul supporters with cell phones too, but I'm just guessing
very interesting info ...thanks
I posted this in the ongoing thread regarding the DMR poll but seems applicable to repost here:
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