Rand Paul campaign has 2,000 pledges from Iowa State University.. Look at how huge this is!

[Rudeman]

Ron got 26k in 2012 when the Democrats didn't have a contest, so some of Ron's supporters are surely going for Bernie this time. The bigger defection though will be to all the Republican outsiders that were not there in '12, Trump in particular. The fatal conceit is to believe all of those 26k in 2012 were 'true believers' like those of us who are/have been activists for the Pauls. For Rand, 15k out of 125k votes would be quite an accomplishment that would be 12% and make him a big story coming out of Iowa.

Say half of the Ron Paul supporters stick with Rand (with the rest either not voting, or going to Bernie, Trump, or Cruz) that's 13k and half of the 10k students show up, so 5k. That's 18k, maybe Rand picks up another 1 or 2k elsewhere and he's around 20k which would likely be a top 3 finish. 20k is doable and who knows if his polling starts to shift upwards that could attract some of the undecideds or soft supporters from the other candidates.

[dancjm]

Ron got 26k in 2012 when the Democrats didn't have a contest, so some of Ron's supporters are surely going for Bernie this time. The bigger defection though will be to all the Republican outsiders that were not there in '12, Trump in particular. The fatal conceit is to believe all of those 26k in 2012 were 'true believers' like those of us who are/have been activists for the Pauls. For Rand, 15k out of 125k votes would be quite an accomplishment that would be 12% and make him a big story coming out of Iowa.

Now consider all those people who felt they could not support Ron in 2012, those people who bought into the "unelectable" narrative. Those people who felt they could not listen to or support a candidate who wasn't particularly "polished" for TV viewing. Those people who felt that Ron Paul did not reflect the GOP.

I'm pretty sure there will be a significant number of people on the flip side of what you are saying. You are talking about people who supported Ron who may not support Rand, and I guess that is somewhat valid, although I'm yet to hear from anyone who supported Ron in 2012 and this time is supporting establishment candidate x or y. You should remember though that there will be a significant number of people for whom the opposite is true. They were not onboard for whatever reason in 2012, but feel differently this time around, when it comes to a young senator with a more effective delivery style and who seems more relevant as a GOP candidate.

Wrong or right, the prevailing attitude was that Ron didn't actually stand a chance of winning, and we had the success that we had despite that attitude.

Hard as they try to convince people that the same is true of Rand, it clearly doesn't stick. Show me a straw poll Rand has not won. Show me another GOP candidate who beats the Dem candidates in a match-up poll. Rand is entirely electable, and it shows. I imagine that if this had been a 2 or 3 horse race as in previous years, we'd be strolling to the nomination.

It will end up being a 2 or 3 horse race pretty soon, and when it is, and people can see that Rand is in the race, then peoples minds will focus. Who is the least electable candidate in a general - Trump. And the most - Rand. Who is actually a real conservative?

I actually don't believe that this will come down to the die hard Ron supporters in the end. To get us there they will be vital. But in the end, when Republican voters have a clear cut choice, and they know who is in and who is out of the race and what those candidates stand for, I think then we'll find that we end up with more support from more quarters than we could have imagined. All we need is for the field to narrow to 2 or 3 candidates, I think then we will win a decent proportion of your average Joe GOP voter (whom everyone seems to be discounting) along side the youth and minority support which we already have.

[rich34]

The one poll where they polled 5% of Ron's caucus goers all going to Rand is a big silver lining for me. If that's a trend that can carry over to where Rand is able to maintain and turnout even 90% of Ron's voters from 2012 added in with the fact that college will be in session with caucuses being held on campus and I think it's very easy to see why the Rand campaign is very excited. Ron only needed another 3,000 votes or so to win in 2012 and had college been in session with caucuses being held on campus he could have easily won. Now I understand that the enthusiasm may not be as strong for Rand, but supposedly Rand's ground game is far superior to what Ron had. Assuming (I know) all this cancels each other out the college strategy "should" put Rand's vote total higher than Ron's. How much so will be the telling factor as to whether he wins or not. I still think a late surprise visit by Ron to Iowa to make sure those college kids get out to vote would be a good thing for Rand. I would't worry what the media says because they're going to spin it regardless. Hell Glen Beck is supposedly going to head there to campaign for Cruz why can't Ron not do the same for Rand? To hell with what they say.

[Liberty74]

Lets hope you are wrong... Have you ever been wrong before??

Yes! I thought Trump would have imploded by September/October. I was wrong. But I did predict Carson would tank which he certainly did. I do think Cruz will suffer a blow to his support in the next 2 weeks in Iowa due to several issues like his eligibility, etc. One can only hope Rand benefits. Who else would Cruz's supporters go to? Highly doubt they will go back to Carson.

[squirl22]

I do think Cruz will suffer a blow to his support in the next 2 weeks in Iowa due to several issues like his eligibility, etc. One can only hope Rand benefits. Who else would Cruz's supporters go to? Highly doubt they will go back to Carson.

Doing phone calling and Cruz is definitely taking away supporters from Rand....I think Cruz will be losing support to some extent....hope so.

[Mani]

Yes! I thought Trump would have imploded by September/October. I was wrong. But I did predict Carson would tank which he certainly did. I do think Cruz will suffer a blow to his support in the next 2 weeks in Iowa due to several issues like his eligibility, etc. One can only hope Rand benefits. Who else would Cruz's supporters go to? Highly doubt they will go back to Carson.

Unfortunately I think some of them go to Rubio.

[derek4ever]

Unfortunately I think some of them go to Rubio.

The beltway are really hoping Rufio can pull off the same thing Kerry did in Iowa '04. Let's see how this plays out for Rand!!

[idiom]

I'm here! LOL

Rage? Dear god, stop being so delusional. It's old people that vote. And unless Rand is competitive with that old vote which accounts for like 65% of the vote for god sake, the 2K above isn't going to help Rand place in the top 3. It's very basic math. 95% of you failed that simple equation in 2012. We shall see what happens in 2 weeks.

If held today with 10K student votes, Rand would be around 8-12%. For some reason Trump is killing it with the old and evangelicals which I don't get. That's how a person wins Iowa. Rand knows this and so does Chip. Ron found that out as well.