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Thread: New Georgia, Florida polls 1/17-1/18, Rand @ 3%, 4%

  1. #1

    New Georgia, Florida polls 1/17-1/18, Rand @ 3%, 4%

    Per RCP:

    Georgia:
    Poll Date Sample Trump Cruz Rubio Carson Bush Fiorina Kasich Paul Huckabee Christie Santorum Spread
    FOX 5 Atlanta 1/18 - 1/18 803 LV 33 23 8 7 7 4 4 4 3 4 0 Trump +10


    Florida:
    Poll Date Sample Trump Cruz Rubio Bush Carson Christie Fiorina Kasich Paul Huckabee Santorum Spread
    Florida Times-Union 1/17 - 1/17 838 LV 31 19 12 13 7 4 4 3 3 2 0 Trump +12



    Not much news here. The polls were entirely conducted on 1/17 and 1/18 so obviously as recent as it gets. Sample size is above average, so margin of error is about 3.5% for each.

    Also, the Georgia crosstabs show Rand polling at 10% among ages less than 45, and 0.5% above age 65. Also, 11.2% among cell phones vs. 2.4% among landlines.
    Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. -Douglas Hofstadter

    Life, Liberty, Logic



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  3. #2
    The cell phone numbers look good. That shows that they poll a lot more landlines than cellphones. Rand's support is obviously under estimated in the polls.

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Brett85 View Post
    The cell phone numbers look good. That shows that they poll a lot more landlines than cellphones. Rand's support is obviously under estimated in the polls.
    They do, but it is also almost certainly true that more landline respondents will actually vote than cellphone respondents.
    Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. -Douglas Hofstadter

    Life, Liberty, Logic

  5. #4
    Although they did not provide the crosstab for how many landlines vs cell phones were polled, there is enough info to calculate it --

    (11.2x + 2.4y)/2 = 3.5
    x+y=100
    y=100-x
    11.2x+2.4(100-x) = 7
    11.2x+240-2.4x = 7
    11.2x-2.4x=233
    8.8x = 233
    x=233/8.8
    x=26.5

    Yay algebra.

    So, it was 26.5% cell phones, 73.5% landlines

    The correlation is probably more strongly related to age though, than phone type.
    Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. -Douglas Hofstadter

    Life, Liberty, Logic

  6. #5
    The only real story here is Rubio slipping vs Bush. He was up 17% to 9% back in early December in Florida and 11% to 5% in Georgia. Neither candidate can win without consolidating the other's support. Christie/Fiorina/Kasich will clear out after New Hampshire, but if both Bush/Rubio go to South Carolina and they should have plenty of money, neither can win the state. Even if one drops out after South Carolina, they'll have to try to win Virginia/Michigan/Florida/Ohio while suffering losses in two dozen other states.

  7. #6
    No real change in being and not being in the debates.

    Really goes to show that Rand isn't doing well because people don't like him but that because he is not being considered in the upper tiers with his low numbers so people just count him out.

    I think if he really started pulling up, he could SHOOT up rather quickly.
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  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    No real change in being and not being in the debates.

    Really goes to show that Rand isn't doing well because people don't like him but that because he is not being considered in the upper tiers with his low numbers so people just count him out.

    I think if he really started pulling up, he could SHOOT up rather quickly.
    That's why it's so important for him to do well in Iowa. He needs a top three finish. If he could do at least that well it would make his campaign look more viable to people.

  9. #8
    Rubio is out, Bush surge incoming.



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    No real change in being and not being in the debates.

    Really goes to show that Rand isn't doing well because people don't like him but that because he is not being considered in the upper tiers with his low numbers so people just count him out.

    I think if he really started pulling up, he could SHOOT up rather quickly.
    That's the entire point of rigging the polls with inaccurate samples. These two polls are simply more rigging. Now that the IA numbers are coming up, they had to produce some other rigged polls that show Rand's numbers to be as low as possible, which has exactly the effect you describe.
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  12. #10
    Untrustworthy polling company. The guy who runs the company is a partisan Republican and the name "InsiderAdvantage" seems to ring true.

    A Bush surge is not happening. I would take that to the bank.
    Trump hates liberty.

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by invisible View Post
    That's the entire point of rigging the polls with inaccurate samples. These two polls are simply more rigging. Now that the IA numbers are coming up, they had to produce some other rigged polls that show Rand's numbers to be as low as possible, which has exactly the effect you describe.
    The Georgia poll is actually the highest Rand has polled in that state since May which was 9 polls ago.
    Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. -Douglas Hofstadter

    Life, Liberty, Logic

  14. #12
    So, the same Boomer luddites who almost destroyed America want to finish the job eh?

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Crashland View Post
    The Georgia poll is actually the highest Rand has polled in that state since May which was 9 polls ago.
    Rand is surging in Georgia. Went from 1 to 4 percent. That is with the under polling of cell phones. Rand will win Georgia.

  16. #14
    This looked to me like an improvement actually, previously I recall him being 1% or less in Florida (a few 0 even). I would think if he's at 4% there he would poll much higher in IA or NH where he is actually campaigning. Looking forward to new polls this week!

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Crashland View Post
    Although they did not provide the crosstab for how many landlines vs cell phones were polled, there is enough info to calculate it --

    (11.2x + 2.4y)/2 = 3.5
    Ughhh,you should not be dividing by 2 and the right side needs to be *100 otherwise you will end up with a negative number

    (11.2x + 2.4y) = 350
    x+y=100
    y=100-x
    11.2x+2.4(100-x) = 350
    11.2x+240-2.4x = 350
    11.2x-2.4x=110
    8.8x = 110
    x=110/8.8
    x=12.5

    Yay algebra.

    So, it was only 12.5% cell phones, 87.5% landlines

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    Ughhh,you should not be dividing by 2 and the right side needs to be *100 otherwise you will end up with a negative number

    (11.2x + 2.4y) = 350
    x+y=100
    y=100-x
    11.2x+2.4(100-x) = 350
    11.2x+240-2.4x = 350
    11.2x-2.4x=110
    8.8x = 110
    x=110/8.8
    x=12.5

    Yay algebra.

    So, it was only 12.5% cell phones, 87.5% landlines


    Kids, that's what happens when we rush through problems and don't check our work. This is also why open source solutions are better. I meant to show that, as an illustration...
    Last edited by Crashland; 01-19-2016 at 02:23 AM.
    Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. -Douglas Hofstadter

    Life, Liberty, Logic



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Crashland View Post


    Kids, that's what happens when we rush through problems and don't check our work. This is also why open source solutions are better. I meant to show that, as an illustration...
    Oh jeez, I should have checked your work before repping you.

  21. #18
    A lot of people don't know anything about Rand, that's what I am finding out....that's because of the media not talking about him.

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by squirl22 View Post
    A lot of people don't know anything about Rand, that's what I am finding out....that's because of the media not talking about him.
    Worse. My mom thought Rand had dropped out because he wasn't in the last debate. Don't be mad at her. She's in her 80s. And while she votes democrat in the general election, she voted for Ron Paul in the 2012 GOP primary. (Thanks in part to me.) That's why we gotta make those calls folks!
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  23. #20
    It's interesting how little support Cruz has among younger people in these polls.

  24. #21
    These numbers are actual pretty good for Georgia and Florida. We are usually under 2%

  25. #22
    GA has a 20% threshold and FL is winner-take-all.
    I dont think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president, he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. Hes the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Rudeman View Post
    Oh jeez, I should have checked your work before repping you.
    This is actually a great example of how easy people we trust can lead us astray by pushing false narratives.
    Your government works in a very similar way.

  27. #24
    Prediction -- Rand Paul will dominate Colorado as long as he comes in the top 3 in Iowa.



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Joeinmo View Post
    Prediction -- Rand Paul will dominate Colorado as long as he comes in the top 3 in Iowa.


  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    I just registered republican here to help him. We have a closed primary from what I read ;0



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