Polls will start to get closer to reality:
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Polls will start to get closer to reality:
Last edited by limequat; 01-12-2016 at 08:50 AM.
Non-violence is the creed of those that maintain a monopoly on force.
Yeah, I'm really hoping he can get into the next debate. They're probably gonna try to have only 5 people in the next one. I don't see how he doesn't make it though. I don't think missing this debate will affect his poll numbers. His numbers should go up significantly, starting now.
Also check out the Cruz crash. Watch out, here it comes.
Non-violence is the creed of those that maintain a monopoly on force.
If you're referring to the steep decline of the black line, that's Cruz, not Trump, which, in my opinion, is even better.Originally Posted by limequat
I'm totally shocked Trump hasn't tanked already.
I see no Rand surge. Just a blimp on a graph within the margin of error. If Rand pops to 10% in the week or two in Iowa, then watch out. That's a surge. And the media will be flipping out especially right wing talk radio.
Then you just don't get it.
https://counterpsy.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/democracy_will_come_to_you.jpg?w=430
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
click on the original image, not what you see here and you will see Rand shooting straight up in brown and Cruz and Trump going down.
Needs a bit more data.
Why not post the link to that as well?
Is this it?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ucus-3194.html
OK, that spike is due to the Gravis poll falling out of the average.
No it is more than that. The last 4 polls before this last 4 had no 4 or 5's
War; everything in the world wrong, evil and immoral combined into one and multiplied by millions.
Yeah, those help, too.
I wouldn't call it a real surge but starting that meme is not a bad thing. It can do wonders to a ailing campaign...santorum....
Last edited by klamath; 01-12-2016 at 10:53 AM.
War; everything in the world wrong, evil and immoral combined into one and multiplied by millions.
I'll call it a surge if he can poll a 7
I did click on the link. Still a blimp within the margin of error. Outside the margin would be a real surge say around 10%. Rand has been around the 3, 4, 5% mark in Iowa for a long time.
He'll probably break past the 6% ceiling once the pollsters begin polling more people under the age of 50, unless they want to be massively embarrassed when the Iowa caucus occurs. I'd say there is a very real possibility that come next week his numbers will either crack double digits in Iowa or get really close.
I meant to type "wouldn't"
War; everything in the world wrong, evil and immoral combined into one and multiplied by millions.
All you have to do is look at those in the circle, they are about the same - margins of error mean nothing what matters are trends, only Rand and Rubio are trending up and it's a pretty good upward trend
I really like the trend line of Rand vs Cruz.
Good thread but don't hold such high expectations people, hit the phone bank and don't stop!!
THE SQUAD of RPF
1. enhanced_deficit - Paid Troll / John Bolton book promoter
2. Devil21 - LARPing Wizard, fake magical script reader
3. Firestarter - Tax Troll; anti-tax = "criminal behavior"
4. TheCount - Comet Pizza Pedo Denier <-- sick
@Ehanced_Deficit's real agenda on RPF =troll:
Who spends this much time copy/pasting the same recycled links, photos/talking points.
7 yrs/25k posts later RPF'ers still respond to this troll
He's 20 points out with 2.5 weeks to go in an 11 person field. Sure he might get 7 or 8 but a win is not going to happen. I've accepted it.
Two weeks out in 2012, Santorum was polling in the mid single digits.
Its almost as if Trump is the one whose paying the pollsters and he wheels them as he see fits. I am starting to believe that now.
Look. Realistically. Even if the precinct chairmen only bring 2 people each. That's 3000 people. Lets suppose only a quarter of 10.000 students shows up, that's 2500. Total you've got 5500 right there. If 130.000 people show up, this alone is 4.2%.
And I'd have to say these are pretty pessimistic numbers. IDK about the students but I bet the precinct chairs bring more people each.
Then you've also got people who will just show up and people who will change their minds at the caucus. How many of these people there are, IDK.
But it's completely unrealistic for him to poll lower than 4% in Iowa.
"I am a bird"
True, but there were also a lot less candidates, and not one single person dominating the polls like Trump is.
Who knows how this can go? It's really a first in history
And it was CNN and the entire media pushing a FAKE poll - republican only when Iowa is an open caucus - to give them a story to push Ron out of first place.
Rand is not going to get a media push. Something else is going to have to give. Rand is going to have to make something happened. As I've said from the very beginning against much resistant at RPF, the person who wins the old and religious vote WINS Iowa. What's Rand going to do about that?
The governor is preparing for a record turnout due to the Trump factor. Rand is going to need those 10K students if he has any chance in hell. He has to go after and compete for the old religious vote in the next 2 weeks. Has to be competitive with that demo.
Ron didn't win the evangelical vote, and he came within 3,804 votes of winning.
They're very important, but not everything.
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