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Rand Paul for Peace
That's great and I hope 10,000 do turn out but if they did it wouldn't matter.
120,000 turned out last time. Rand is polling a couple percent. Even if the predicted 10,000 kids show up, which I doubt since kids don't vote, them plus the say 5% is not enough to win.
It will take about 30,000 to win the Caucus.Originally Posted by 69360
This negative $#@! has got to go.
It took less than that last time with fewer candidates.
Almost 29k, and the top 3 (Santorum, Mitt and Ron) took about 70% of the vote. I think it will take about 25% to win and there will be 120000 caucusgoers will probably be exceeded. 30k is a safe number. 25k will fall short. The 10k would be great but we would need another 15-20k to have a chance.
Trump will only get around 5K. He is only just now realizing he needs an actual campaign there to keep from being embarrassed. Unfortunately, it's too late for him.
If 10,000 college students vote for Rand, he will win with ease. How can you even question that? They'd almost certainly bring friends, parents, grandparents, and siblings with them. If 10,000 kids can be motivated to vote, and brought to the polls, the ground game that Rand has in place will certainly be able to beat the polling numbers for other age groups in sufficient-enough numbers to win Iowa.
You've also got to consider how widely the vote may be split this time with Trump, Cruz, Carson, Rubio and Paul all pushing for the top spot, as opposed to Santorum, Mittens, and Ron last time.
#1 Rand's polling numbers will be far better than they are parading. I would project Rand in the top 3. At our caucus in the 3rd biggest county in Missouri in 2012 half were under 30.
Most young voters don't show, but the exception is Liberty youth, they show, they are educated and they produce.
the person with the biggest fail will be Trump, why because reality show type voters never show.
Rand's poll numbers lag SIGNIFICANTLY behind Ron's 30 days out from the caucus. At 30 days out from the 2012 Iowa caucus, Ron was at 13% Real Clear Politics average. Rand is at 2.6%.
This thread is about real people voting next month, not polls.from 4 years ago.
Electoral politics. Absolute gauge of who is voting. Don't be deluded and think polls don't mean anything, they mean everything. Rons final RCP average was within a couple % points of his actually percentage. Polls are spot on
You are clueless...
Rand Paul for Peace
As much as people will fight you on this forum, this is a valid point. We can't pretend that polls mean nothing. They aren't precise by any means, but even Ron polled well in IA and NH.
Why would 2-month old polling be a good indicator of how accurate the polls are when there are plenty of polls right before the primary to compare instead? Polls are just a snapshot in time...You are clueless...
Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. -Douglas Hofstadter
Life, Liberty, Logic
We're just tired of hearing it from him and the same 2 or 3 others; there are plenty of other places to argue about how accurate (or not) the polling is. This thread isn't even about polling, it is about turning out 10,000 students to caucus for Rand.
That's about right IMO.
10,000 allegedly unpolled college kids turning out plus the 3% or so Rand is currently polling is only 13,000 votes. The caucus can not be won with that. And that is if every single one of these kids shows up. Kids are notoriously unreliable voters, it's old people that vote in primaries and caucuses.
Go ahead an neg rep me again those who did, but you are denying grade school math here. Honestly I would be surprised if Rand breaks 10,000 votes total.
I will be SHOCKED if Rand gets LESS than the 26,036 votes, Ron's 2012 Iowa Caucus total votes. Rand's ground game is twice as good as Ron's 2012 campaign in Iowa.
Rand Paul for Peace
Is it that difficult for you to see that many of Herman Cain's supporters switched from him to Santorum?You are clueless...
Sanity Check Radio Show
http://www.SanityCheckRadioShow.com
Iowa is all about turnout and polling can't really capture that as much as they try to. If 10,000 students show up then Rand will far exceed his polling numbers and will be in the running to win the caucus.
I think you are a bit too emotionally invested in this. Rand has about no chance as of now to get 26,000 votes.
I'd like Rand to win too, but realize he most likely won't.
Id be surprised if Rand gets 1/2 of what Ron did.
Somebody went all out with the kinetic typography in that video lol
Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. -Douglas Hofstadter
Life, Liberty, Logic
Amen. The polling companies do a great job 99% of the time knowing who is voting, who is not, and for whom.
Too many people are delusional in here. Rand has a few weeks to turn things around or hope for some type of shake up by the other candidates. If the election was today, I would be surprised if Rand got a total of 10,000 votes, not from students but total from all demographics.
If Rand does not win the Republican nomination, he should buck the controlled two party system and run as an Independent for President in 2016 and give Americans a real option to vote for.
We are all born libertarians then something goes really wrong. Despite this truth, most people are still libertarians yet not know it.
You don't believe Rand will win. We get that. This forum was created for people who support Rand's campaign for POTUS. Whether intentional or not, you are actively working against that purpose by discouraging new supporters and lurkers. If you are a Rand soft supporter like you claim, you should at the very least refrain from posting in the Rand forum, because you're not helping..
As it has been explained multiple times, coming into Rand's support forum and calling Rand supporters delusional is not an acceptable way to show support for Rand. You are actively discouraging new support and antagonizing the members. We (the real Rand supporters) do understand it is not going to be easy getting a true liberty candidate elected POTUS. We also understand not everyone on here is on the Randwagon, but if you don't respect what people are in here trying to do, you probably don't need to be posting in here.
I feel you. We've all seen the posts across the forum. I don't agree with him all the time, but he has a point here.
Please guys. Don't disregard this. Last time when Ron got what he got the motto of this forum turned into, "THOSE DAMN KIDS." The kids didn't come out last time like we thought they would; we can organize, and fundraise, and hope, and pray as much as we want but at the end of the day it is up to a college kid's free will.
I've asked you about this on another part of the forum. To us last time, Ron's ground game was incredible. I fail to see what makes Rand's so much better.
Another thing I will bring up here is that Ron was polling well in IA at this point. He was first. He had an upward trend the entire campaign until the fooey Santorum poll, along with the other poll that PPP called out on twitter that showed Romney at 1st. Ron got 26,036 votes, and they weren't all a bunch of kids or followers of von Mises. Some of those 26K we have to realize are probably in Trump's corner now, or Ben Carson's, or Ted Cruz's, or Bernie's! We can't just count on "if they voted for Ron, then they'll vote for Rand," like a lot of people seem to be doing because we also have to realize a good chunk of people in Ron's corner are not backing Rand--not because they have another candidate, just because he is not Ron.
I agree. Rand has a couple weeks to turn it around and make a stand. I'm optimistic he will do better than people think he will. I think if Rand gets his father's total in 2008 it would be good considering how things have gone for him the campaign. On the best possible day I'm still only seeing 15,000 votes. Guys, I WANT to be wrong. I'm donating to the campaign, and I'm still trying to be as positive and supportive as I can with all of this, but blindly saying that we'll easily win IA and that'll we'll get more than Ron got...
I hope the 10,000 students show up for Rand, and I hope his debate performances along with the inevitable implosion of the other candidates, helps boost Rand's poll numbers, and allow him for a solid top 3 finish.
Rand is doing a much better job of registering supporters to vote in the Republican Caucus than Ron's campaign did and for at least the last 6 months, Rand's Super PAC, Concerned American Voters, Religious Liberty PAC, has spent over 2.5 million dollars on making phone calls, paying field canvassers and printing door hangers to find new supporters. There are more positives but shouldn't be disclosed in a public forum. Whether this is enough to get Rand more votes than Ron did in Iowa, no one knows until Feb. 1. But, the campaign strongly believes they will get more.
Is that enough to win? I don't know but it should be enough to either win, place or show.
Rand Paul for Peace
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