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Thread: CNN/ORC: Rand 6th Bush 7th nationally

  1. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Jan2017 View Post
    If there was a population of only 5,000 that you wanted to describe with only 438 random samples,
    the margin of error (at 95% confidence) is +/- 5% at least in this online calculator . . .
    https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/marg...or-calculator/
    It is not a linear scale. The sample size to keep ~5% margin of error for 5000 (357) is not much different from the sample size needed for 50000000 (385).



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  3. #32
    Jan2017
    Member

    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    It is not a linear scale. The sample size to keep ~5% margin of error for 5000 (357) is not much different from the sample size needed for 50000000 (385).
    The sample proportion, ρ (rho)(using 438 people to describe 55,000,000) is a ridiculously small number that gets square-rooted -
    I agree not linear and making it worse of a prediction than say using 438 samples to predict the opinion of 50,000



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  5. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by Jan2017 View Post
    The sample proportion, ρ (rho)(using 438 people to describe 55,000,000) is a ridiculously small number that gets square-rooted -
    I agree not linear and making it worse of a prediction than say using 438 samples to predict the opinion of 50,000
    The problem with the polls are due to experimental design and sample methods. If you are having a problem with the math, take it up with Bayes.

  6. #34
    Jan2017
    Member

    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    The problem with the polls are due to experimental design and sample methods. If you are having a problem with the math, take it up with Bayes.
    No problem with the math at all - 438/55,000,00 is a sample proportion too low for a MoE of 4%

  7. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Jan2017 View Post
    No problem with the math at all - 438/55,000,00 is a sample proportion too low for a MoE of 4%
    Agree. For 55,000,000 at 4%, they should use around 600. The best they could get from 438 is 4.68%.

  8. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by supermario21 View Post
    If anything we can now say that regardless of the style campaign Rand ran he'd be where he's at now...I think he's done a great job the last 2 debates in terms of being closer to Ron and it really hasn't done that much...But the trend is good. If someone drops out Rand will be in position to definitely make the stage. And to be honest, he has no incentive to drop out before Kentucky so he'll be around even if he misses the main stage for a debate or two.
    I think rand will try to stretch it out until the end. I see that passion had at the beginning pop up in the last month. I'm sure ron will give him some pointers and rand will start 2016 in a great way! Just wait and see!

  9. #37
    A few more of these and Rand should be eligible for the debate? When is the start date and cut off for the polls to count?
    THE SQUAD of RPF
    1. enhanced_deficit - Paid Troll / John Bolton book promoter
    2. Devil21 - LARPing Wizard, fake magical script reader
    3. Firestarter - Tax Troll; anti-tax = "criminal behavior"
    4. TheCount - Comet Pizza Pedo Denier <-- sick

    @Ehanced_Deficit's real agenda on RPF =troll:

    Who spends this much time copy/pasting the same recycled links, photos/talking points.

    7 yrs/25k posts later RPF'ers still respond to this troll

  10. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    A few more of these and Rand should be eligible for the debate? When is the start date and cut off for the polls to count?
    They're using the five (I think) most recent polls released prior a certain date, so that depends on how many polls come out...

  11. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by Chieppa1 View Post
    Wow. They showed Rand ahead of Bush. Actually showed his face. Someone is getting fired at CNN.
    Well, if you take Rand Paul out of this, Bush is the real 6th.

    Signed,

    Lawrence O'Donnell

  12. #40



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  14. #41
    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/im...22/cnnpoll.pdf

    [quote]Interviews with 1,018 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORCInternational on December 17-21, 2015. The margin of sampling error forresults based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points.The sample also includes 927 interviews among registered voters (plus orminus 3 percentage points).This sample includes 618 interviews among landline respondents and 400interviews among cell phone respondents.[/qute]

    60% landline / 40% cell phone

    I'll wait for the usual trumpeters of "The polls are fair" to show up again...

  15. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post

    this is why Paul has been working to create soundbites that are repeated the following days all over...much more effective.

  16. #43
    I was born in a welfare state/Ruled by bureaucracy/Controlled by civil servants/And people dressed in grey/Got no privacy, got no liberty/Cos the twentieth century people took it all away from me - Ray Davies

  17. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    It is not a linear scale. The sample size to keep ~5% margin of error for 5000 (357) is not much different from the sample size needed for 50000000 (385).
    Which is absolutely true in case the sample taken is in fact a genuine cross section of society selected completely at random within the set parameters. We know this practically never happen so there's always a bias in some way or another beyond the common MOE. A list of likely republican voters might not include people who've suddenly become interested. It's science but it's definitely not hard science.

    Also, there's a big difference between a poll that asks people about their political leanings and one that asks which flavor of ice-cream they like. Here in the Netherlands polls are notoriously unreliable. This is because traditionally people don't really talk about who they vote for and may even lie in polls.
    "I am a bird"

  18. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by Liberty74 View Post
    Placement does not matter folks. It's the percentage.


    Just hope no one gets majority.

  19. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post

    That is frightening. I always tell myself that people like the ones in Luntz's focus groups don't really exist, but I guess they have to.

  20. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post


    I saw that and completely disregarded it. All the internet on who won the debate gave Rand between 10-50%. In Fox's online poll he even beat out Trump.

    2% think Rand won the debate? Really? Charles $#@!ing Krauthammer thought he won the debate. Newt $#@!ing Gingrich thought he won the debate.

    Then it occurred to me. There were literally zero Rand supporters over the age of 50 in this poll. The people that watched the debate, watched it on the their cable TV, watched the MSM conclusion afterwards and obviously concurred 100%. This is CNN's core demographic, and the MSM still has absolute control over them.
    Non-violence is the creed of those that maintain a monopoly on force.

  21. #48



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  23. #49
    I don't have the screenshot but last night I saw CNN show top 5 last night. Paul wasn't even up there and Bush was 5th at 3%.

    Same old bullsheet.

  24. #50
    Anyone have the screenshot of the latest poll blackout? It had a comment 'shopped in indicating where Rand actually was.

  25. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by grizzums View Post
    I don't have the screenshot but last night I saw CNN show top 5 last night. Paul wasn't even up there and Bush was 5th at 3%.

    Same old bullsheet.
    Damn we need this screenshot, what program did it air on at least?
    THE SQUAD of RPF
    1. enhanced_deficit - Paid Troll / John Bolton book promoter
    2. Devil21 - LARPing Wizard, fake magical script reader
    3. Firestarter - Tax Troll; anti-tax = "criminal behavior"
    4. TheCount - Comet Pizza Pedo Denier <-- sick

    @Ehanced_Deficit's real agenda on RPF =troll:

    Who spends this much time copy/pasting the same recycled links, photos/talking points.

    7 yrs/25k posts later RPF'ers still respond to this troll

  26. #52
    It aired on CNN.. not sure which program. Was around 630p est on Dec 23rd. I wish I'd captured it. Disgusting.
    Last edited by grizzums; 12-25-2015 at 10:35 AM.

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