Results 1 to 21 of 21

Thread: The big thread full of stock picks

  1. #1

    The big thread full of stock picks

    This is the thread in which you can discuss your latest buys and your reasoning behind why you think they will excell and try to defend your reasoning in a good old discussion.

    First up, my latest buy: Blackberry

    Yes I think bright days are back for this relic of the past. Blackberry has tumbled from a high of 140 something in 2007ish to a recent low of 8 CAD. Now trading at 12,47 it has broken out of a trading range after posting a result beat in the last quarter.

    Three things I like about the company:

    - A new man in charge with a background of turning has-beens around.
    - they ditched their unspoken rule of having all phones using the blackberry's own Operating System and have recently unveiled an Android phone.
    - three they are very well positioned to reap benefits from the internet of things as they have started out as a software company and still are very capable in that domain. Their software revenue is also rapidly rising with triple digit percentage figures yoy.
    - i know this makes four but they have a decent pile of cash vs their market cap.

    I hope we'll see 30 plus within two years.



  2. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  3. #2
    Maxlinear (MXL)trading at 15.45
    Semiconductor stock founded 2003 by former Broadcom employees. IPO'd 2010

    Pros:
    Big earnings surprise .40 EPS last quarter. Guided up on Rev. which would put this qtrs earnings above .40
    Forward PE at around 10
    Low/no debt. Plenty of cash where dilution isn't a risk
    Super high margin business over 50%
    Soros and Royce major shareholders
    Lean operation. Employees complain on internet about sharing cubes benefits, yet company still attracts top people. Long hours. Acquired another company and had no problem firing redundant employees

    Cons:
    Not a lot of analyst or investor enthusiasm now or when the company went public. All time high was right when it went public at $19
    A lot of stock options outstanding. Seem a little too interested in the stock price. No insider buys. Some converting options
    Huge earnings and sales growth in large part due to an acquisition. Tends to be sketchier and harder to decipher accounting on revenue recognition

  4. #3
    Buying individual stocks is nothing more than speculation (gambling)... the current price already contains all of the known information about the company. Even most people inside the company don't understand where their company is in relation to the market so the idea that one has special insight or knowledge is nonsense.


    I mean yes some people day trade and make educated guesses, but in the end it is unlikely to be as successful as a long term strategy.



    The best bet is to buy long-term investments in things that move in dissimilar motions and you will get an average of 14% per year if it is done correctly.
    __________________________________________________ ________________
    "A politician will do almost anything to keep their job, even become a patriot" - Hearst

  5. #4
    investments in things that move in dissimilar motions and you will get an average of 14% per year if it is done correctly.
    Please explain

  6. #5
    O'Reilly Automotives: ORLY

    Compare to AutoZone and also their performance through the recession. They have a competitive advantage over AutoZone as well that allows them to deliver parts on order to the stores faster than AutoZone can. They also have a lot of market penetration to make, as they don't have distribution centers that cover the entire U.S. last I checked.
    "Those who slumber on the path to tyranny, sink on the river to freedom." - Brett D.

    "I am not attacking you Eric. I am stating historical fact. Leon Trotsky taught Leo Straus everything he knew about Communism. Leo Straus set up shop at the University of Chicago. There Straus mentored and educated the godfather of the neoconservative movement, Kristol the Elder. See? It is not an attack, it is a statement of historical fact." - Random RP Supporter Spreading Some Love

  7. #6
    Keep it coming!

    MXL seems interesting, i looked at the P/e of competitors and its quite varying. 15 for intel, 20 for broadcom and high 20's for nvidia. Do you know why these large differences? Well at least MXL looks cheap compared to them.

    About O'reilly automotives. I think the best might be over no? Times five in five years and a P/E of 29. This makes me cautious to jump in but hey if you already hold it try and ride the momentum till the end.

    I'll throw in another one that I am contemplating.

    Satellite operator SES:

    Pro's:

    Biggest dog on the block and close competitor Intelsat likely to go bankrupt due to excessive debt leaving behind a 20%+ hole in the market to be filled up.
    Pushing the edge technology wise, the first to take the risk to ride on new cheaper rockets like SpaceX's Falcon series, the first to try out electrical propulsion for their satellites.
    Owns 45% and have said to become majority owner of O3b, the first low latency satellite internet provider. This daughter company is really on fire providing internet to cruise ships, island nations and the navy.
    Stock is at a two year low after havin fallen 20+ percent from its high.
    Oh and for you americans, the euro.

    Negatives:

    The big one. Main business is providing satellites for satellite TV. This could get crushed by netflix and amazon prime in the coming decade. Main geography is Europe though which is always a bit behind the curve on internet applications. This really irks me a bit.

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Collins View Post
    Buying individual stocks is nothing more than speculation (gambling)... the current price already contains all of the known information about the company. Even most people inside the company don't understand where their company is in relation to the market so the idea that one has special insight or knowledge is nonsense.


    I mean yes some people day trade and make educated guesses, but in the end it is unlikely to be as successful as a long term strategy.



    The best bet is to buy long-term investments in things that move in dissimilar motions and you will get an average of 14% per year if it is done correctly.

    Tell that to buffet, or any rich person for that matter.

  9. #8
    Account Restricted. Admin to review account standing


    Posts
    1,125
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Tell that to buffet, or any rich person for that matter.


    (yeah, and try telling any mega-buck$ lootery winner that 'buying stock' in the lootery was a poor choice!.....)



  10. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Collins View Post
    Buying individual stocks is nothing more than speculation (gambling)... the current price already contains all of the known information about the company. Even most people inside the company don't understand where their company is in relation to the market so the idea that one has special insight or knowledge is nonsense.
    This is largely true, especially for us average schnooks.. This is why the majority of my equity investments are in in index funds..

    The best bet is to buy long-term investments in things that move in dissimilar motions and you will get an average of 14% per year if it is done correctly.
    There is no formula for getting a reliable 14%apr.. Broad market index funds, with dividend re-investment have gotten you, historically, something in the neighborhood of 8, with a large standard dev...

    The blackberry call is interesting.. Definitely not the sexy pic in this day in age.

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by fatjohn View Post
    Tell that to buffet, or any rich person for that matter.
    They take extraordinarily high risks, or are well connected and have inside knowledge. Super wealthy have very different investment opportunities than everyone else.
    __________________________________________________ ________________
    "A politician will do almost anything to keep their job, even become a patriot" - Hearst

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Collins View Post
    They take extraordinarily high risks, or are well connected and have inside knowledge. Super wealthy have very different investment opportunities than everyone else.
    Inside knowledge, research teams, etc..
    It's tough on the ego, but the average investor is better off dollar cost averaging and indexing...
    You are never as smart as you think you are...

    I do still dabble in individual stocks and commodities, more as a hobby than anything else...

  14. #12

    Lightbulb

    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    This is largely true, especially for us average schnooks.. This is why the majority of my equity investments are in in index funds..


    There is no formula for getting a reliable 14%apr.. Broad market index funds, with dividend re-investment have gotten you, historically, something in the neighborhood of 8, with a large standard dev...

    The following mix from 1973-2007 has given a 14.4% annualized average rate of return (dev of 17.7):

    5% cash
    7.5% large US stocks
    15% large US value stocks
    15% small US stocks
    12.5% small US value stocks
    15.75% large international stocks
    29.25% small international stocks
    __________________________________________________ ________________
    "A politician will do almost anything to keep their job, even become a patriot" - Hearst

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Collins View Post
    The following mix from 1973-2007 has given a 14.4% annualized average rate of return (dev of 17.7):

    5% cash
    7.5% large US stocks
    15% large US value stocks
    15% small US stocks
    12.5% small US value stocks
    15.75% large international stocks
    29.25% small international stocks
    Nice.

    Can I get a source Matt?

  16. #14
    Other than Rand Paul, is there any candidate on either side of the aisle, who isn't calling for war. I would suspect leading up to the next election, the safer bets of market pics would be:

    Lockheed Martin Corporation
    The Boeing Company
    Raytheon Company
    General Dynamics Corporation
    Bechtel Group Inc.

    Each of these companies maintain government contracts, and would greatly profit from war.
    Last edited by Leaning Libertarian; 12-24-2015 at 12:46 AM.

  17. #15
    i charge for stock picks .

  18. #16
    I invest in penny stocks. So far I've gained -$1278.00 in the last 3 years



  19. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by TheNewYorker View Post
    I invest in penny stocks. So far I've gained -$1278.00 in the last 3 years
    TKOI might be of interest to you.

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by The Northbreather View Post
    Nice.

    Can I get a source Matt?
    His book..... listen to his radio show, he is exceptionally brilliant:


    http://www.paulwinkler.net/
    __________________________________________________ ________________
    "A politician will do almost anything to keep their job, even become a patriot" - Hearst

  22. #19
    I bought some Ruger (RGR) a few weeks ago after some shooting. It's gone up 10% since then.

  23. #20
    BUY and HOLD conditions not companies.

    The daily 10/90

    Z=1.0 # range 0.5 to 2.0 works best for most

    pick any stock, any forex, pork bellies...

    if the 10*Z period simple moving average on daily candles crosses above 90*Z daily sma, then invest.
    if the 10*Z period simple moving average on daily candles crosses below 90*Z daily sma, then divest.


    EVERY asset/asset, asset/currency, currency/currency pair has an optimized Z relative to its historical performance. For EVERY pair you can find a Z that has beaten buy and hold. EVERY ONE.

    For any pair that Z is changing slowly over time; usually getting slightly bigger but in log(x) fashion; but also somewhat cyclic sin(x)/x. Take from that take: Z changes over time; but slowly.

    Step 1) find something you think you should buy and hold
    Step 2) <<< most people miss this step >>> Find the optimized Z for your security.

    A very wise and rich man once told me: "BUY, HOLD; but SELL when it gets vertical."

    Stick to the program place orders on the day of the Z * 10/90 cross, read: Not 2 weeks later when you realize the cross was right and price has already moved. Sometimes the algo will win, sometimes it will lose. Every few months re optimize Z. Make no other trades.

    but just like picking good companies each year... picking good conditions each time means ultimately:

    WIN.

    Now you're a quant.

    The big boys pay quants big money to manage hedge funds because quants are winners.

    Why?

    because buy and hold solid companies that move up or down 10 percent annually = 1.10X max at the end of the year.

    buy and hold solid conditions that move up or down 2% every week = 1.02^52 = 2.8X max at the end of the year

    If you think you can pick good stocks to hold,
    I want you to see that you can just as easily pick good conditions to hold.



    luck = random 1 or -1

    skill = range 0 to 1

    crudely:

    ROI_good_stock_pick = 100*(1+(luck+skill)*1.1^1)


    or

    ROI_ good_condition_pick = 100*(1+(luck+skill)*1.1^trades_per_year)






    If you're a quant that wants even less drawdown than buy and hold and even less than the simple 90/10 cross, then you learn


    if:
    elif:
    else:



    disclosure: I'm a freelance quant managing cryptocurrency by algo for about 40 individuals. about half with 50k usd equity limits and half with 5k limits; 2 additional users unlimited. I charge 1 btc annually for my 5k black box service which sends signals on average every 10 days. We're just over 2.3X usd terms; 1.75X btc for 2015. I post all my trades shortly after they occur at tradewave.net and the litepresence report here at rpf. Details: http://i.imgur.com/sB3KbJU.png http://pastebin.com/VLkKUniQ rpfpresence@gmail.com
    Last edited by presence; 12-24-2015 at 12:08 PM.

    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...


  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Leaning Libertarian View Post
    Other than Rand Paul, is there any candidate on either side of the aisle, who isn't calling for war. I would suspect leading up to the next election, the safer bets of market pics would be:

    Lockheed Martin Corporation
    The Boeing Company
    Raytheon Company
    General Dynamics Corporation
    Bechtel Group Inc.

    Each of these companies maintain government contracts, and would greatly profit from war.
    ^this^

    and don't forget Huntington Ingalls.

    General Dynamics just got a bid for a Bazillion dollar ship the Navy didn't even ask for.

    http://www.foxbusiness.com/investing...te-to-us-navy/

    Chalk up another win for the lobbyists -- and get ready to write a $4 billion check, Mr. and Mrs. Taxpayer. Because the U.S. Navy is about to get two new warships -- that it didn't even ask for.

    On Dec. 4, military shipbuilder Huntington Ingalls won a $200 million award to begin purchases of long-lead parts needed to build a new San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock, to be designated "LPD 28." The "undefinitized" award, whose ultimate cost remains to be seen, is likely to rise as high as $2 billion over the course of the warship's construction, the Navy has said. And because of a quirk in how the Navy builds its ships, that won't be the end of the spending.

    Under the terms of a 13-year-old agreement among the Navy, Huntington Ingalls, and rival shipbuilder General Dynamics , whenever one of these contractors wins a shipbuilding contract, the Navy awards another contract of roughly equal value to its rival. Construction of LPD 28 will round out the originally planned fleet of 12 San Antonio-class ships that the Navy had envisioned, however. So instead of an LPD, the Navy has elected to award a contract to General Dynamics to build another Arleigh Burke-class destroyer -- valued roughly equally at $1.9 billion -- instead.

    (This destroyer contract, however, has yet to be authorized and funded by Congress).
    - SUPPORT FREE TRADE, SMUGGLE -

    2 + 2 = 5.



Select a tag for more discussion on that topic

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •