2016 GOP Primary Schedule

[CPUd]

Delegates to the convention: 2,470*

Delegates needed to win the nomination (50%+1): 1,236*

*Some of the delegate totals may fluctuate, because (among other things) the number of bonus delegates are not finalized yet.


Early states:

Iowa Caucuses (30 delegates): February 1, 2016 — Delegates awarded proportionally, rounded to the nearest whole number.
New Hampshire Primary (23 delegates, 20 bound): February 9, 2016 — Delegates awarded proportionally statewide to candidates earning at least 10% of the vote.
South Carolina Primary (50 delegates): February 20, 2016 — Delegates awarded as “winner take all” statewide and by congressional district.
Nevada Caucuses (30 delegates): February 23, 2016 — Delegates awarded proportionally

March 1 will be the biggest day:

SuperDuper Tuesday: March 1, 2016 (Delegates/Bound delegates) 565 bound delegates

Also known as the ‘SEC Primary,’ more delegates are bound on this day than any other in the primary race, all by some form of proportional allocation.** Many of the states are deeply conservative, and are being eyed by candidates appealing to such voters as an opportunity to build momentum. But there will be plenty of opportunities for more moderate candidates to come away with delegates, and maybe some victories too.

Alabama Primary (50 total delegates/47 bound) — Proportional with 20% threshold
Alaska Caucuses (28/25) — Proportional with 13% threshold
Arkansas Primary (40/37) *— Proportional with 15% threshold
Georgia Primary (76) — Proportional with 20% threshold
Massachusetts Primary (42/39) — Proportional with 5% threshold
Minnesota Caucuses (38/35) — Proportional with 10% threshold
North Dakota Caucuses (28/0) — The state does not have a presidential preference poll and all delegates are officially unbound. Caucuses can be flexibly scheduled
Oklahoma Primary (43/40) — Proportional with 15% threshold
Tennessee Primary (58/55) — Proportional with 20% threshold
Texas Primary (155/152) — Proportional with 20% threshold
Vermont Primary (16/13) — Proportional with 20% threshold
Virginia Primary (49/46) — Proportional
Wyoming Caucuses (29/0) — The state does not have a presidential preference poll and all delegates are officially unbound

March 5, 2016 (145 bound delegates)

Kansas Caucuses (40) — Proportional with 10% threshold
Kentucky Caucuses (45/42) — Proportional with 5% threshold
Louisiana Primary (46/43) — Proportional with 20% threshold statewide, no threshold for congressional district delegates
Maine Caucuses (23/20) — Proportional with 10% threshold

March 6, 2016 (23 bound delegates)

Puerto Rico Primary (23) — Proportional with 20% threshold

March 8, 2016 (140 bound delegates)

Hawaii Caucuses (19/16) — Proportional
Idaho Primary (32) — Proportional with 20% threshold
Michigan Primary (59/56) — Proportional with 15% threshold
Mississippi Primary (39/36) — Proportional with 15% threshold

March 12, 2016 (19 bound delegates)

District of Columbia Convention (19) — Proportional with 15% threshold
Guam Convention (9/0) — Delegates elected at convention and unbound

Super Tuesday: March 15, 2016 (361 bound delegates)

This is the first day that states may begin to award delegates on a winner-take-all basis and where favorite sons are looking to score big. It’s also the date at which a majority (56%) of delegates will have been already bound—an important milestone that was reached nearly a month later in 2012.

Florida Primary (99) — Winner take all
Illinois Primary (69) — Statewide delegates are winner take all, congressional district delegates elected directly on ballot and bound as they declare
Missouri Primary (52/49) – Winner take all above 50%, otherwise winter take all by congressional district
North Carolina Primary (72/69) – Proportional
Northern Mariana Islands Caucuses (9) – Winner take all
Ohio Primary (66) –Winner take all

March 19, 2016 (9 bound delegates)

U.S. Virgin Islands (9) — Winner take all

March 22, 2016 (107 bound delegates)

American Samoa Convention (9) — Delegates elected and bound at convention
Arizona Primary (58) — Winner take all
Utah Caucuses (40) — Proportional with 15% threshold

Spring Break

After a month of intense voting, the calendar slows with just 134 delegates bound over the course of a month. This could sap candidates’ momentum, either elongating a close race for the nomination or forcing underperforming and underfunded candidates from the race before the home stretch.

April 5, 2016 (42 bound)

Wisconsin Primary (42) — Winner take all statewide and by congressional district

April 9, 2016 (0 bound)

Colorado Convention (37/0) — Delegates elected at district and state conventions, and bound as they declare

April 19, 2016 (92 bound)

New York Primary (95/92) — Proportional with 20% threshold

If Rubio and Christie are still in, one will drop out after this day:

Northeast Primary: April 26, 2016 (109 bound)

More moderate Republicans have an opportunity to be heard at a critical juncture.

Connecticut Primary (28/25) — Winner take all above 50%, otherwise proportional with 20% threshold statewide and winner take all by congressional district
Delaware Primary (16) — Winner take all
Maryland Primary (38) — Winner take all
Pennsylvania Primary (71/14) — Winner take all statewide, remaining delegates elected on ballot and unbound
Rhode Island Primary (19/16) — Proportional with 10% threshold

May 3, 2016 (54 bound)

Indiana Primary (57/54) — Winner take all statewide and by congressional district

May 10, 2016 (67 bound)

Nebraska Primary (36) — Winner take all
West Virginia Primary (34/31) — Delegates elected directly on ballot and bound by preference

May 17, 2016 (25 bound)

Oregon Primary (28/25) — Proportional

May 27, 2016 (41 bound)

Washington Primary (44/41) — Proportional with 20% threshold

Last Call: June 7, 2016 (294 bound)

The final primary day, with a large crop of delegates up for grabs.

California Primary (172/169) — Winner take all statewide and by congressional district
Montana Primary (27) — Winner take all
New Jersey Primary (51) — Winner take all
New Mexico Primary (24/21) — Proportional with 15% threshold
South Dakota Primary (29/26) — Winner take all

THE CONVENTION: July 18, 2016 — Cleveland, Ohio

If no candidate has the required number of delegates on the first ballot, balloting will continue until a nominee emerges with a majority of delegates. Most delegates are freed from their bindings after the first ballot or if released by the candidate. Others are held for longer.

ripped shamelessly from: http://time.com/4059030/republican-p...on-convention/

other good info that stays current:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R-Alloc.phtml
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republ...s_and_caucuses

[Crashland]

It feels like navigating a minefield.

[dusman]

Yikes, some of those proportional thresholds are fairly high. I wonder what happens if no one reaches the threshold and you have the leader being like 19% in those that are 20%? Would all the delegates go to the one person?

[CPUd]

Yikes, some of those proportional thresholds are fairly high. I wonder what happens if no one reaches the threshold and you have the leader being like 19% in those that are 20%? Would all the delegates go to the one person?

Such a scenario would be rare, but from what I gather, the threshold could be subject to change, depending on how many people are on the ballot. They will know this around the time they print the ballots. Like for a 20% threshold with 7 candidates, they may drop it to 10-13%

[derek4ever]

Yikes, some of those proportional thresholds are fairly high. I wonder what happens if no one reaches the threshold and you have the leader being like 19% in those that are 20%? Would all the delegates go to the one person?

In several states, if no candidate passes a threshold, either the threshold is lowered or eliminated. And there are states that are proportional with a majority trigger (like ny)

[CPUd]

I made some projections of some states Rand could perform well in. They are based on some proportional states he could meet the threshold in, wide open caucus states, winner-take-all states in the NW, and states he could at least grab a few unbound. other than that, I pulled them out of my ass.


LOW: He should at least be able to get this many, he will need some surprise wins in states not listed to stay in the race.
NEED: Optimistic outlook, this should be enough to keep him in the race.
MAX: The most anyone can get from that state.
ALL: All delegates from all states, including ones not listed. Superdelegate counts are backloaded.
BLUE numbers are a running total.


Note: some of the the dates below might be in the wrong place. Everything above the date should have happened by that date.


Assuming 4 candidates go all the way to the RNC, hitting the NEED numbers should give him a slight edge WRT leverage. With 3 candidates, he could still have leverage to get on the ticket. With 2 candidates, the other candidate would be the presumptive nominee by the end of April.

[derek4ever]

I made some projections of some states Rand could perform well in. They are based on some proportional states he could meet the threshold in, wide open caucus states, winner-take-all states in the NW, and states he could at least grab a few unbound. other than that, I pulled them out of my ass.


LOW: He should at least be able to get this many, he will need some surprise wins in states not listed to stay in the race.
NEED: Optimistic outlook, this should be enough to keep him in the race.
MAX: The most anyone can get from that state.
ALL: All delegates from all states, including ones not listed. Superdelegate counts are backloaded.
BLUE numbers are a running total.


Note: some of the the dates below might be in the wrong place. Everything above the date should have happened by that date.


Assuming 4 candidates go all the way to the RNC, hitting the NEED numbers should give him a slight edge WRT leverage. With 3 candidates, he could still have leverage to get on the ticket. With 2 candidates, the other candidate would be the presumptive nominee by the end of April.

Rand might get some luck in states like IL, IN and PA, because the voters choose the delegates directly. The KY neighboring states could rub some good luck for him in all of them, so he should get a decent showing in TN, IL, IN and WV. And you don't want to discount the Northeastern states, since Ron did quite well and it could be interesting!

[r3volution 3.0]

Just noticed this thread, good work CPUd.

And you don't want to discount the Northeastern states, since Ron did quite well and it could be interesting!

Agreed.

Ron did well enough in some of those states that, had there still been 3-4 candidates splitting the vote (rather than Romney getting well over 50% in every state), he probably would have gotten some delegates.