Rand might be at the kids table for the next debate

[Jonderdonk]

This is already decided imo. Faux news has been showing a Comercial
for a couple weeks for the kiddie debate where they flash the faces of
those involved and Rand is one of those faces.

Fox is advertising CNN's debate?

[liveandletlive]

its a damn shame what this has come down to. The electorate is hungry for blood right now and it has sunk Rand. Cruz played his cards right and Rand didnt.

[Anti Federalist]

I was there.

If the "official" campaign had done just a few things different and came out forcefully on few local issues (that Ron had already commented on) he could have won NH.

Rand has been going full Ron for the last 3 months.

Ron's chances of getting 20%+ now would be zero. If Newt or Romney had wanted to keep him from getting 20% in 2012 they could have. Ron would not be keeping Ron's base. Ron never had a 20% base in 2012. Ron had a 10% base that Trump, Carson, Cruz, and Sanders are eating into.

And to see why your signature is wrong, think about Mike Huckabee and Santorum. If Mike Huckabee kept his evangelical base from 2008, he would be at 35%. He is at 4%. If Rick Santorum kept his base, he would be at 25% not 1%.

[jmdrake]

Just caught a bit of the Rachel Maddow show. She mentioned that CNN will be tracking the polls until this Sunday but as of right now, she said that Rand will be at the kids table if his polling numbers don't rise.

I'm sure that gave her a mini orgasm. Anyway if he is he'll get to beat up on LIndsey Graham and that should be entertaining. "Hey Lindsey. I predicted if we armed the Syrian rebels terrorists would overrun Syria. Ready to admit I was right?"

[r3volution 3.0]

What are you talking about? Millions of people have watched the debates. Some of them have been the highest rated programs on the networks.

The voting behavior of the masses is determined by daily repetition of names and narratives on the news.

Rand (or anyone else) could have the greatest performance in American history and, if they don't talk about it through the next week's news cycle, it won't matter.

RED!!!
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...which color do you best remember?

[derek4ever]

are you a cruz supporter?

No way am I a Cruz supporter. I think he's a weasel just sucking off Rand's ideas and wrapping them up in a new wrapping paper and then calling it his plan. I do think it would be a worst case scenario if he were to win Iowa just in case Rand can't do it (I do think he can still finish in the top tier if he plays his cards right) so Trump can be put away in the freezer.

[Krugminator2]

I was there.

If the "official" campaign had done just a few things different and came out forcefully on few local issues (that Ron had already commented on) he could have won NH.

Romney got 40% in NH and it hard to imagine Ron catching that. He actually outperformed the polls on election night.

But assuming you are right. if Mitt Romney wanted to napalm Ron Paul into oblivion, there are an endless loop of clips he could run that would melt away any non-base support. Ron didn't get the Newt treatment because Newt had a non-zero chance of winning. Ron had zero chance and was treated as such. In fact, Ron doing well was mutually beneficial to he and Romney.

[statist slayer]

One point that people haven't mentioned, perhaps because it's obvious: The kiddie table debate is half the time of the grown ups debate, so with four participants, Rand will have roughly the same amount of time to speak (only ~4 minutes more).

[dusman]

One point that people haven't mentioned, perhaps because it's obvious: The kiddie table debate is half the time of the grown ups debate, so with four participants, Rand will have roughly the same amount of time to speak (only ~4 minutes more).

Well.. that assumes equal time talking between candidates which we know isn't realistic. If Rand doesn't pretty much forcefully control the stage, I'll be annoyed because he will need to and there's no doubt he'll outgun every one of them if he so chooses to do so. He's going to need to show some balls and provide his position in contrast to the others like a boss of the stage, while as minimally as possible acknowledging the presence of the other candidates beneath him.

[derek4ever]

Well.. that assumes equal time talking between candidates which we know isn't realistic. If Rand doesn't pretty much forcefully control the stage, I'll be annoyed because he will need to and there's no doubt he'll outgun every one of them if he so chooses to do so. He's going to need to show some balls and provide his position in contrast to the others like a boss of the stage, while as minimally as possible acknowledging the presence of the other candidates beneath him.

Agreed! Rand has tried to play Goldilocks here and it's been proving to be a failure... He needs to play aggressive and just throw everything he has to try to turn this ship around, it won't be easy but it can be done! I love Rand but I think he hurt himself at the beginning when he went after Trump (maybe he was expecting the neocons to start coalescing around him, in order to stop Trump, I don't know) and he should've tackled Cruz, Jeb and Rubio. Good thing is that we still have time until Iowa but he needs to just risk it all!!

[carlton]

Rand's at 3.66 in NH, I say he makes it to the big debate. He will get the 6 he needs in NH

[devil21]

Lots of notorious RPF debbie downers popping up all over poll and debate threads lately.....hmmm.....

[dusman]

As many have pointed out, CNN has *previously* included duplicate polls from individual pollsters. However, although their stated inclusion rules for this (5th) debate were clearly intended to be quite explicit, this is one point that they failed to include explicitly. They were clear about which polls would be excluded, but they don't actually say in the rules that any specific polls will definitely be included in the average.

If I were with the Paul campaign, I would definitely be arguing this point. Considering that the only thing holding him back in Iowa (as of 12/8) is an old, duplicate poll from CNN, this seems to me a pretty strong argument. I'm' not sure how likely they are to press the issue.
Of course, if another IA poll comes out showing him at 2, then even this argument won't save him.

This is a discussion going on on PredictIt.org over Paul's inclusion. I thought this was a pretty good point. Certainly worth the campaign making an effort this direction. Apparently, CNN made an exception in a prior debate for Fiorina as well, which I didn't know.

[Thor]

I saw this commercial tonight on CNN, but the end was a little different. They had 2 times shown instead of the one. So it implied 2 debates. I assume the candidates they did not show their names in the ad will be in the first debate.

[CPUd]

I saw this commercial tonight on CNN, but the end was a little different. They had 2 times shown instead of the one. So it implied 2 debates. I assume the candidates they did not show their names in the ad will be in the first debate.

They don't know who will be in the first debate yet. The ones whose names are shown are the top 5 in the RCP average, though the order has changed since they made the commercial, or after applying their own criteria: