CBS/YouGov Poll Counts

[carlton]

According to joeinmo at Popular Liberty:

In NH, a total of 6 CNN-recognized polls have been released since October 29 : Monmouth(3%), WBUR(3%), WBUR(5%), Fox(3%), CBS(6%) Monmouth 2nd poll (4%) Rand's average = 4

There is some mis-information on the cbs poll that it doesn't qualify because it's an online poll, but that's not true. It's part online and part telephone so it does qualify.

From the polling sample:

"YouGov/CBS also randomly selected persons from voter registration lists who had previously voted in primary elections and contacted them by phone. A total of 20017 registeredvoters were contacted by phone and the YouGov sample includes 1290 phone recruits."

What this means:

Paul is within striking distance in NH.

Monmouth:3%
WBUR: 3%
WBUR: 5%
FOX: 3%
CBS/YOUGOV: 6%
Monmouth 4%
CNN 2%

Avg: 3.71

Needs another 6% to get in

OR two 5's

OR two 5's one four

OR a 6 and a 4

etc etc etc

[derek4ever]

I've got a quick question... What happens if a pollster has more than 1 poll? Does CNN use the latest poll? An average of the pollster's polls? Or do all of the pollster's polls count? Sorry for the doubt, but I'm not sure.

[William Tell]

I think joe is speculating.

[Crashland]

Assuming they will include the YouGov poll...
I'm not sure if they will include the first WBUR poll. Even without the first WBUR poll though Rand would be at 3.83, in which case he would need one 5 to bring his average to exactly 4. Assuming they are all weighted equally. If they weight according to sample size (unlikely) then the YouGov one could help because that has an unusually high sample for a state poll. Anyone have a link to the poll details and methodology?

[Joeinmo]

I'm not speculating, it's from the polling organizations website

I would think Rand has an argument to drop older polls from the same polling company, in that case even with today's new CNN poll Rand is still at 4%

[carlton]

Joe, how did you come to 3.2 nationally???

[William Tell]

I'm not speculating, it's from the polling organizations website

I would think Rand has an argument to drop older polls from the same polling company, in that case even with today's new CNN poll Rand is still at 4%

Good. I guess we will see what they do.

[carlton]

Assuming they will include the YouGov poll...
I'm not sure if they will include the first WBUR poll. Even without the first WBUR poll though Rand would be at 3.83, in which case he would need one 5 to bring his average to exactly 4. Assuming they are all weighted equally. If they weight according to sample size (unlikely) then the YouGov one could help because that has an unusually high sample for a state poll. Anyone have a link to the poll details and methodology?

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/1...s-vegas-216106

[carlton]

I'm not speculating, it's from the polling organizations website

I would think Rand has an argument to drop older polls from the same polling company, in that case even with today's new CNN poll Rand is still at 4%

Joe, how did you get 3.2 nationally? Also, RCP only shows one WBUR poll, the WBUR website only shows one poll as well.

[Crashland]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/1...s-vegas-216106

Sorry, I meant the polling details and methodology specifically for the CBS/YouGov poll.

[Joeinmo]

Last figures I seen 3 days ago

[carlton]

Sorry, I meant the polling details and methodology specifically for the CBS/YouGov poll.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-retakes-lead-cruz-surges-in-ia-rubio-second-in-nh/

At the bottom of the page

[carlton]

Last figures I seen 3 days ago

I have Rand at 2.8 nationally right now

[Joeinmo]

There are 2 will try and find the link