Rand's average poll numbers

[shenmue]

In this thread we will calculate the average of Rand's polling numbers to determine whether he'll be in the main stage or in the undercard stage. I hope members update this thread every time a poll is released until December 13.

First I will layout the criteria according to CNN:

Candidates must meet one of three criteria in polls conducted between October 29 and December 13 and recognized by CNN: An average of at least 3.5% nationally; at least 4% in Iowa; or at least 4% in New Hampshire.

Polls that will be considered are live interviewer national and state surveys by: ABC News, Bloomberg News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, Gallup, Marist University, McClatchy News Service, Monmouth News Service, NBC News, The New York Times, Pew Research Center, Quinnipiac University, Time, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, The Des Moines Register, the University of New Hampshire, WBUR and WMUR.

All the polls figures obtained from RCP :

National polls recognized by CNN, there are 9 polls that are conducted starting October 29: NBC(2%), Quinnipiac (2%), McClatchy(5%), Fox(4%), Bloomberg(3%), ABC(3%), Fox(2%), Quinnipiac (2%) and CNN(1%). Rand's average= 2.6

In Iowa, several polls conducted since October 29 but only 3 polls are recognized by CNN: CBS(2%), CNN(2%) and Quinnipiac(5%). Rand's average= 3.0

In NH, a total of 5 CNN-recognized polls have been released since October 29 : Monmouth(3%), WBUR(3%), WBUR(5%), Fox(3%), CBS(6%). Rand's average = 4.0

Based on those current polls, Rand is eligible to appear in the prime-time main stage debate as he meets the criteria in NH average polls. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong and contribute as much as you like.

[TheNewYorker]

He's in the commercial, so he's sure to be in it.

[shenmue]

He's in the commercial, so he's sure to be in it.

Of course but we still don't know if he'll make it to the main stage

[Anti-Neocon]

The CBS polls are online, so not "live interviewer".

He's got 2+5=7 / 2 = 3.5% in Iowa
He's got 3+3+5+3=14 / 4 = 3.5% in NH

in Iowa he needs:
1 poll, average 5
2 poll, average 4.5
3 poll, average 4.33

In NH he needs:
1 poll, average 6
2 poll, average 5
3 poll, average 4.67

IA is the easiest pathway. National isn't even worth mentioning.

[limequat]

The CBS polls are online, so not "live interviewer".

He's got 2+5=7 / 2 = 3.5% in Iowa
He's got 3+3+5+3=14 / 4 = 3.5% in NH

in Iowa he needs:
1 poll, average 5
2 poll, average 4.5
3 poll, average 4.33

In NH he needs:
1 poll, average 6
2 poll, average 5
3 poll, average 4.67

IA is the easiest pathway. National isn't even worth mentioning.

Thank you, this is correct. There is another thread which covers the debate numbers but I guess it got bumped of the first page.

[69360]

I thought it was a national average of 3.5 OR any early state poll with 4%, not an average.

I doubt CNN will bump Rand to the kiddy table. Discourse makes for good TV.

[SilentBull]

He's in the commercial, so he's sure to be in it.

No that doesn't mean that.

[CPUd]

more discussion here:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...ve-been-posted

[liberty_nc]

While every previous debate has only used national polling, candidates who average at least 4 percent in either Iowa or New Hampshire polls will make the stage in Las Vegas, according to the standards CNN released Friday. Candidates who average at least 3.5 percent in national polls between Oct. 29 and Dec. 13 will also qualify.

[givemeliberty2010]

The CBS polls are online, so not "live interviewer".

He's got 2+5=7 / 2 = 3.5% in Iowa
He's got 3+3+5+3=14 / 4 = 3.5% in NH

in Iowa he needs:
1 poll, average 5
2 poll, average 4.5
3 poll, average 4.33

In NH he needs:
1 poll, average 6
2 poll, average 5
3 poll, average 4.67

IA is the easiest pathway. National isn't even worth mentioning.

Maybe I'm too pedantic, but I think your post should abide by the order of operations (PEMDAS).

[laissez faire]

Thanks for this compilation.

Hope he's on the air in Iowa; here in MA, Boston channels extend into NH and we also get one NH station. Bush is everywhere and Kasich and Christie have been prominent. Rubio has been up for a few days and the first Carly spots are running. Nil from Rand thus far.

[groverblue]

[shenmue]

New Monmouth iowa poll : Rand at 4%

Average in Iowa= 3.6%

[Warlord]

Rand made the debate? phew, that was close

[CPUd]

Cutoff is at the end of the week.

[Warlord]

Cutoff is at the end of the week.

they've announced he;s in, see a few posts up

[RabbitMan]

Rand made the debate? phew, that was close

Did he or did he not?

[Warlord]

Did he or did he not?

according to grovenorblue's post he has but it links to facebook/ which I block

[SilentBull]

according to grovenorblue's post he has but it links to facebook/ which I block

No, unfortunately groverblue's post is wrong. It's just a link to the CNN commercial for the debate. That commercial was made a while ago. Just because it shows Huckabee and Paul doesn't mean they're in. It just means they had to make a decision about who to include in the commercial. My guess is that they included the candidates that had the possibility to be included.

[SilentBull]

New Monmouth iowa poll : Rand at 4%

Average in Iowa= 3.6%

That sucks. He needed a 5. He still does.

[Warlord]

oh great. we're doomed

[limequat]

N/M Silent Bull beat me to it.

[SilentBull]

5% in IA or 6% in NH is needed before the 13th.

[Chieppa1]

Rand just need to continue to hit the frontrunners so ratings dictate that CNN needs him in the debate.

[francisco]

No, unfortunately groverblue's post is wrong. It's just a link to the CNN commercial for the debate. That commercial was made a while ago. Just because it shows Huckabee and Paul doesn't mean they're in. It just means they had to make a decision about who to include in the commercial. My guess is that they included the candidates that had the possibility to be included.

Correct. Unfortunately groverblue's post is wrong. CNN has not yet announced who will be in the main debate. In fact, the eligibility criteria provide for inclusion of polling results announced up to 5 PM Sunday 12/13/15. Therefore, not all of the polls to be used are known yet.

grover's link is merely to some unofficial poster on facebook who misconstrues the meaning of an ad promoting the debate. In the ad, some candidates are pictured with printed subtitled names--the "top 5" who unquestionably will qualify for the main debate. Some other candidates, including Rand and Huckabee, are shown in fleeting pictures only. Note that Huckabee is far away from meeting criteria for the main debate, in any of the 3 possible qualifying modes.

Grover may be excused for displaying over-optimism, but it does no-one any good to operate under false suppositions.

Hopefully, Rand will by the end of the week meet the criteria for inclusion in the main debate. But it is by more means a certainty. Rand's best shot at this point is to get one more poll in Iowa at 5% or more (after today's Monmouth release at 4%). His current average in Iowa is 3.7% in 3 qualifying polls, and he needs 4%.

The obvious implication is to get on those phones in the calling from home program!

[shenmue]

A new CNN poll in Iowa puts Rand at 3%. Not so good news.

His average is back to 3.5%. Now he needs to score 6% in the next poll(in Iowa) to qualify for the main stage

[limequat]

Link?

[CPUd]

Link?

http://cnn.com

[limequat]

Wow check out that 14 pt disparity between CNN and Monmouth on Trump. WTF?

[CPUd]

Their crosstabs/sampling look a lot like the previous CNN national poll. If he's polling that big of a lead, other campaigns will get desperate and go after him at the debate so the moderators don't have to. CNN wants the debate to get stupid, but they don't want to take the blame for it like CNBC did.