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Thread: Rand in 5th in Iowa at 5% leading Bush

  1. #31




    PAGE 19 FEAR FEAR FEAR



    Last edited by CPUd; 11-24-2015 at 01:16 PM.



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  3. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by groverblue View Post
    great news! So, that probably means that he's at an easy 15% once the independents and youth are factored.
    I'm sure they polled Independents. There isn't going to be a mad rush of youth either. I'm willing to predict about 15% maybe 18% tops of 17-29 year olds very similar to 2012.

    Some of you don't know the playing field. It takes OLD votes to win.
    If Rand does not win the Republican nomination, he should buck the controlled two party system and run as an Independent for President in 2016 and give Americans a real option to vote for.

    We are all born libertarians then something goes really wrong. Despite this truth, most people are still libertarians yet not know it.



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  5. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by Todd View Post
    Cruz at 23%. What a joke.
    He could take Trump out with the news and buzz of him rising in Iowa setting the tone nationally. Remember, only 50% of DT 25% voters will definitely vote for him. Meaning, his base is only 12.5% and you can't win with such after you FALL. Plenty of time for Rand to rise with well over 2 months to go. Anything, I mean anything can happen until Feb...
    If Rand does not win the Republican nomination, he should buck the controlled two party system and run as an Independent for President in 2016 and give Americans a real option to vote for.

    We are all born libertarians then something goes really wrong. Despite this truth, most people are still libertarians yet not know it.

  6. #34
    41% favorable, 44% unfavorable. Trump has much better numbers. How the hell does this happen? Really unbelievable

  7. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by squirl22 View Post
    Does this qualify Rand for the next debate?
    I think only national polls count. Anyone know?
    If Rand does not win the Republican nomination, he should buck the controlled two party system and run as an Independent for President in 2016 and give Americans a real option to vote for.

    We are all born libertarians then something goes really wrong. Despite this truth, most people are still libertarians yet not know it.

  8. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Liberty74 View Post
    I'm sure they polled Independents. There isn't going to be a mad rush of youth either. I'm willing to predict about 15% maybe 18% tops of 17-29 year olds very similar to 2012.

    Some of you don't know the playing field. It takes OLD votes to win.
    True, but Rand is targeting 10k college kids to caucus for him in Iowa. That could be a 8% bump over what he gets with the general population.
    Non-violence is the creed of those that maintain a monopoly on force.

  9. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Liberty74 View Post
    I think only national polls count. Anyone know?
    There's another thread in this forum with a lot more detail. In short, Rand currently does not qualify. Needs 3.5% nationally or 4% in IA or NH.
    Non-violence is the creed of those that maintain a monopoly on force.

  10. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by Liberty74 View Post
    I think only national polls count. Anyone know?
    Not for this one. Certain Iowa, NH polls can count, too.

  11. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by Sentinelrv View Post
    It might be good news that Cruz is the next front runner to replace Ben Carson. Cruz is the one imitating Rand and stealing all of his support. If Cruz can't handle the media spotlight and fails like the others have, then his supporters might go back to Rand just in time for Iowa. Anybody think this is likely or no?
    Over 2 months to go and anything can happen. Just a few weeks ago, many thought Carson had a shot...not so any more. Carson is losing support fast in Iowa and isn't polling that well in NH either.

    This race is starting to see some movers and shakers. Too early for Rand to rise or anyone for that fact or you could fall as fast as you rose, minus that loud mouth Trump. But just wait until the anti Trump TV commercials come ha ha.

    Stay tune...
    If Rand does not win the Republican nomination, he should buck the controlled two party system and run as an Independent for President in 2016 and give Americans a real option to vote for.

    We are all born libertarians then something goes really wrong. Despite this truth, most people are still libertarians yet not know it.

  12. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    41% favorable, 44% unfavorable. Trump has much better numbers. How the hell does this happen? Really unbelievable
    Rand is in the ironic position of getting his highest preference points from the mod/libs while also getting the lowest favorables from the same group.




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  14. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by Liberty74 View Post
    I think only national polls count. Anyone know?
    http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...ve-been-posted

  15. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by limequat View Post
    True, but Rand is targeting 10k college kids to caucus for him in Iowa. That could be a 8% bump over what he gets with the general population.
    If Rand gets 10,000 kids to caucus for him on Feb, 1, that is a third of what he needs to win. Anyone who gets 30,000 caucus voters or close to that will win the Iowa Caucus.

    On second thought, if there are still enough candidates running by Feb, 1, even 25,000 might be enough to win it.
    Last edited by LatinsforPaul; 11-24-2015 at 03:18 PM.
    Rand Paul for Peace

  16. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by LatinsforPaul View Post
    If Rand gets 10,000 kids to caucus for him on Feb, 1, that is a third of what he needs to win. Anyone who gets 30,000 caucus voters or close to that will win the Iowa Caucus.
    Do you know what kids do during Christmas vacation?

    They go home and hopefully encourage their parents to caucus for Rand.
    The enemy of my enemy may be worse than my enemy.

    I do not suffer from Trump Rearrangement Syndrome. Sorry if that triggers you.

  17. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti-Neocon View Post
    Do you know what kids do during Christmas vacation?

    They go home and hopefully encourage their parents to caucus for Rand.
    Yes hopefully, but they will all be back in Iowa by Feb. 1 when the Caucus starts.
    Rand Paul for Peace

  18. #45
    Kids?! If you are of a voting age, you are an adult not a kid.

    </truth>

  19. #46
    I'm guessing Cruz will pass Trump in Iowa soon enough.


  20. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by ssunlimited View Post
    Kids?! If you are of a voting age, you are an adult not a kid.

    </truth>
    Absolutely correct, that's just the old man in me.
    Rand Paul for Peace

  21. #48
    Did the media bring down any candidates this election cycle yet? Walker and Jindal ran out of money, People still like Carson but the media was not able to take him apart, his drop in polling is for other reasons.

    Will the media be able to take out Cruz? Carson's gaffes were pretty bad but none of them stuck.

    What a weird election cycle, though I do hope Trump and Cruz clash. Rand is the next strong conservative and if its between Trump, Rubio, and Rand at the top then he will get all of the alternative votes and even some establishment support.

    Anything can happen, still two more months before Iowa.
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  23. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    Did the media bring down any candidates this election cycle yet? Walker and Jindal ran out of money, People still like Carson but the media was not able to take him apart, his drop in polling is for other reasons.

    Will the media be able to take out Cruz? Carson's gaffes were pretty bad but none of them stuck.

    What a weird election cycle, though I do hope Trump and Cruz clash. Rand is the next strong conservative and if its between Trump, Rubio, and Rand at the top then he will get all of the alternative votes and even some establishment support.

    Anything can happen, still two more months before Iowa.
    I'm calling it Romney-itus.

    Romney-itus: The fear of allowing a flaw lower your expectations of a candidate that is perceived to be likable, for the sake of not having to settle for another Romney.
    "Those who slumber on the path to tyranny, sink on the river to freedom." - Brett D.

    "I am not attacking you Eric. I am stating historical fact. Leon Trotsky taught Leo Straus everything he knew about Communism. Leo Straus set up shop at the University of Chicago. There Straus mentored and educated the godfather of the neoconservative movement, Kristol the Elder. See? It is not an attack, it is a statement of historical fact." - Random RP Supporter Spreading Some Love

  24. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    41% favorable, 44% unfavorable. Trump has much better numbers. How the hell does this happen? Really unbelievable
    Rand spent the better part of a year running as a "Detroit" Republican and alienating himself from the GOP base. Frankly, we should be happy that his favorables are as high as they are. There is a lot of self inflicted damage Rand needs to overcome and if he actually accomplishes that and becomes a true threat he's going to have to face the same loaded deck and dirty tricks from the Establishment and MSM players that plagued his father's campaign. As a Liberty Candidate, you really have to run a perfect campaign to have any shot.

  25. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by hells_unicorn View Post
    I think it is very possible that if Trump really starts tanking that he will drop out and run Independent just to avoid the embarrassment of losing a primary/caucus,
    Quote Originally Posted by squirl22 View Post
    There is an article at Yahoo News saying exactly this: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/donald...222047672.html
    Property magnate Donald Trump fired a warning shot at the national Republican Party on Monday.

    The GOP presidential front-runner tweeted that the Republican National Committee was reportedly "getting ready to treat me unfairly — big spending planned against me."


    "That wasn't the deal!" Trump exclaimed.


    The "deal" was an apparent reference to the pledge Trump signed in September to not launch an independent presidential campaign should he lose the nomination.
    Yeah, that's what I've thought might happen the whole time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jackie Moon View Post
    He's pretty sensitive and cares about his image and being a winner, so I could see him leaving when he starts to fall and having a reason to explain why other than that he is failing.

    Some kind of family or business issue that he has to take care of, or that he didn't get fair treatment, or say that he was only running to get the immigration issue out there and now that it is he can leave and endorse someone else and still claim victory and take the credit.
    Trump seems like the kinda guy that doesn't want to be seen as losing when the voting actually starts, especially after being a frontrunner for so long.


    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    Did the media bring down any candidates this election cycle yet? Walker and Jindal ran out of money, People still like Carson but the media was not able to take him apart, his drop in polling is for other reasons.

    Will the media be able to take out Cruz? Carson's gaffes were pretty bad but none of them stuck.

    What a weird election cycle, though I do hope Trump and Cruz clash. Rand is the next strong conservative and if its between Trump, Rubio, and Rand at the top then he will get all of the alternative votes and even some establishment support.

    Anything can happen, still two more months before Iowa.
    I think one thing that's affecting the rise/fall cycle this time is that in 2011/2012 there were already 11 debates so far at this point. Starting in September there was a debate every week or two.

    If there had been 11 debates so far this year the numbers would not look the way they do now.

    That volume and frequency helps push things along and gives front runners that many more opportunities to screw up, be exposed or just have people get tired of them.

  26. #52
    This explains a lot...from the poll analysis published:

    The economy and jobs are the most important issues in deciding who they will support, 24 percent of GOP caucus-goers say, with 15 percent each for terrorism and foreign policy, 11 percent for the federal deficit and 10 percent for immigration.

  27. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by RonPaulMall View Post
    Rand spent the better part of a year running as a "Detroit" Republican and alienating himself from the GOP base. Frankly, we should be happy that his favorables are as high as they are. There is a lot of self inflicted damage Rand needs to overcome and if he actually accomplishes that and becomes a true threat he's going to have to face the same loaded deck and dirty tricks from the Establishment and MSM players that plagued his father's campaign. As a Liberty Candidate, you really have to run a perfect campaign to have any shot.
    I think he is already there, from the threat perspective. Amazing amount of tactics being deployed to shut him up and shut him down.

  28. #54
    2012 GOP nominee Rick Santorum can tell you how definitive and consequential the Iowa caucuses are. Shouldn't surprise anyone that Cruz, with his religious views, would surge in Iowa.

  29. #55
    I think over the next two months we might see a backlash against the National Security conservatives. Whenever a terroristic event happens, the urge to break stuff is always strongest in the next 5 days. It subsides after this. I was having lunch today with 2 lawyer friends, one is an evangelical Baptist Id say, and when the news re Turkey shooting down the Russian plane was discussed, we all said at the same exact time we need to stay the hell away from Syria. I was really happy in that moment.

    The worst thing a candidate can do is appear too hawkish. Remember, GWB was going to avoid nation building. He was a stealth candidate. Goldwater lost cause of the daisy ad, or, at least that was the coup de grace. And the most unpopular guy in the party is lindsay graham, you know, a cartoon character.

    Against these people, if Paul can continue to speak like a foreign policy realist (can the title non-interventionist if you arent running didactically) if he can speak as mature, analytical, prudent person, he will stand above. At some point, what you say will matter.

  30. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by PCKY View Post
    I think he is already there, from the threat perspective. Amazing amount of tactics being deployed to shut him up and shut him down.
    LOL, the Establishment hasn't even taken note of him yet. In the unlikely event he breaks 10% in the polls you will begin to see what tactics and dirty tricks really are.



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  32. #57
    I like how he was the first person to have attack ads against him, they were put out the day he announced by the establishment, and people act like he hasn't had to fight the establishment.

  33. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti-Neocon View Post
    Apparently, college degrees make you 8% more likely to support WWIII with Rubio.

    Cruz up 38-3 over Rand with "Very Conservative". Is that our best chance of growth?
    I agree that a degree or more is worth more than 8 percent more likely to support war.

  34. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy View Post
    I'm guessing Cruz will pass Trump in Iowa soon enough.
    Possible , Cruz is the new Huckaby .Rand needs to stay even with that in Iowa.

  35. #60
    Cruz is dangerous, he's going to be a lot harder to dislodge than Carson. Not sure what the establishment will do if given that choice, maybe that Draft Romney movement will finally take off lol

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