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Rand Paul for Peace
great news! So, that probably means that he's at an easy 15% once the independents and youth are factored.
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Leading Bush....and still trailing Trump, Cruz, Carson, and Rubio. Call it what it is.
Cruz at 23%. What a joke.
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Not after February 1st.
Rand Paul for Peace
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-e...ReleaseID=2305
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No
Bush 4% 1% 3% 1% 1% 13% 3% 6% 6% 3%
Carson 18 18 24 18 20 15 15 23 17 18
Christie 2 - 2 1 4 3 2 3 3 2
Cruz 23 42 27 38 17 6 21 26 20 25
Fiorina 3 2 3 2 4 4 3 4 4 3
Gilmore - - - - - - - - - -
Graham - - - - - - - - - -
Huckabee 2 1 2 1 3 1 2 1 1 2
Kasich 1 - 1 - - 2 1 1 2 -
Pataki - - - - - - - - - -
Paul 5 8 6 3 6 9 8 1 6 5
Rubio 13 5 8 9 16 15 13 12 18 10
Santorum 2 1 3 2 1 1 1 2 - 2
Trump 25 23 20 21 26 28 30 17 20 28
DK/NA 2 - 1 3 1 2 1 4 3 2
Does this qualify Rand for the next debate?
It helps with his averages in Iowa, which have not been strong of late, and it also shows some upward mobility relative to other polls. I think people are misinterpreting peoples' relief at these better numbers with enthusiasm. Nobody is excited about being at 5%, but if it's enough to keep him in the main debate threshold, it is a victory, especially considering all of the damned candidates sucking up oxygen.
This is looking like Cruz's opportunity to take the lead, and it may well end with Trump ceasing to play nice with Cruz. Similarly, the fact that Rand is polling ahead of Jeb is a good thing in that it increases his viability over the long-term. Again, I stress that Rand will need to poll better in the coming weeks in order to stay in the game, but I don't really see much of a point of him being polling way out ahead of others this early on. It'll become a bit easier when the rest of the bottom-feeders drop out, which probably won't happen until closer to Iowa.
I think it is very possible that if Trump really starts tanking that he will drop out and run Independent just to avoid the embarrassment of losing a primary/caucus, and I likewise think it is possible for somebody like Carson to drop out under similar circumstances. However, guys like Rubio, Cruz, Bush and probably Kasich will hang in a good bit longer and will probably be the main ones to contend with.
I think he's at 3% now with this new poll. He needs 4%. It's good news that he's trending upwards though.
There is an article at Yahoo News saying exactly this: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/donald...222047672.htmlI think it is very possible that if Trump really starts tanking that he will drop out and run Independent
I think this would be good for Rand....he would take a lot of Cruz voters with him.Property magnate Donald Trump fired a warning shot at the national Republican Party on Monday.
The GOP presidential front-runner tweeted that the Republican National Committee was reportedly "getting ready to treat me unfairly — big spending planned against me."
"That wasn't the deal!" Trump exclaimed.
The "deal" was an apparent reference to the pledge Trump signed in September to not launch an independent presidential campaign should he lose the nomination.
\\
Last edited by timosman; 11-24-2015 at 09:35 AM.
It might be good news that Cruz is the next front runner to replace Ben Carson. Cruz is the one imitating Rand and stealing all of his support. If Cruz can't handle the media spotlight and fails like the others have, then his supporters might go back to Rand just in time for Iowa. Anybody think this is likely or no?
Yeah, don't know about likely, but certainly a good scenario.
Non-violence is the creed of those that maintain a monopoly on force.
Very likely by the end of January. Especially when Rand shows that he does much better than Cruz against Hillary in all the swing states.
Last edited by LatinsforPaul; 11-24-2015 at 09:52 AM.
Rand Paul for Peace
This poll finally reflects the excellent performance Rand had in the last debate.
It shows self-identifying moderates trust Rand to best handle foreign policy at 10%. So, Rand is winning the independents over with his foreign policy, great!
Not so great, the women think we suck. Men to women is 8 to 1 for 5% overall. Ouch. Hopefully we can get Kelly in Iowa to help with that.
Non-violence is the creed of those that maintain a monopoly on force.
Apparently, college degrees make you 8% more likely to support WWIII with Rubio.
Cruz up 38-3 over Rand with "Very Conservative". Is that our best chance of growth?
The enemy of my enemy may be worse than my enemy.
I do not suffer from Trump Rearrangement Syndrome. Sorry if that triggers you.
I thought only this and CNN/ORC count. So that would put him at 3.5, and he would only need another 5 to qualify.
The enemy of my enemy may be worse than my enemy.
I do not suffer from Trump Rearrangement Syndrome. Sorry if that triggers you.
No I think the KBUR poll counts too. CNN listed "WBUR" but I think that's a typo.
Non-violence is the creed of those that maintain a monopoly on force.
It's not. WBUR polls New Hampshire.
https://www.wbur.org/2015/11/18/wbur...mp-middle-east
The enemy of my enemy may be worse than my enemy.
I do not suffer from Trump Rearrangement Syndrome. Sorry if that triggers you.
Right you are. WBUR is not KBUR. One is NH NPR, the other is an Iowa station. So Rand is at 3.5% in Iowa and NH.
Non-violence is the creed of those that maintain a monopoly on force.
Oh, right. I forgot that Gravis isn't included.
West of the Mississippi River, stations start with 'K', east start with 'W'.
Come on Rand, hang in there! Honestly, nobody has really fired any shots at Cruz yet.
I'll be interested to see what happens when the guns come out.
"Freedom, then Pizza!" - Oklahoma State GOP Convention 5/11/2012
I think there's only 2 people that can take Cruz down. Remember, Cruz is the establishments self destruct button. If things don't go as planned (Bush, Rubio) let Cruz hand everything to Clinton. So you probably won't see Rubio, Kasich, or Christie go after Cruz as hard as they could.
Scenario 1: Trump recognizes that Cruz could steal Iowa, and tries to take him down in the December debate.
Scenario 2: Rand realizes that Cruz is taking the "liberty" vote and makes a play for his voters.
Scenario 2 could backfire, so I'm hoping for number 1.
Non-violence is the creed of those that maintain a monopoly on force.
Honestly, I am a little disappointed. I expected Rand to at least break into double digits after the last debate. This is just ridiculous! Just because he is ahead of Bush or Fiorina now, isn't necessarily a good thing. He SHOULD be ahead of them. So the fact this is news now, not so good.
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Nobody said this would be easy. Rand has a the deck stacked against him. Gotta grind out delegates wherever we can get them.
Non-violence is the creed of those that maintain a monopoly on force.
Not always. KDKA is in Pittsburgh, PA.
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