Apparently you need Rothbard's though.Originally Posted by The Gold Standard
What GDP was doing during the price deflation of the 1870's:
What about unemployment during this "deflationary boom"?
http://socialdemocracy21stcentury.bl...n-america.html
Rothbard claims this was not really a recession?
Net national product was NOT growing "extraordinarily" or even at all during the period. It did before and afterwards.Yet what sort of “depression” is it which saw an extraordinarily large expansion of industry, of railroads, of physical output, of net national product, or real per capita income?
Last edited by Zippyjuan; 11-26-2015 at 10:09 PM.
No, I don't. Rothbard provided the numbers. If he didn't editorialize, I could still see that the booming economic numbers didn't match up to such a "severe depression'.
They didn't keep unemployment data or industrial production data back then, so these are just estimates like all of the other numbers. But Rothbard didn't say there wasn't a recession, just that it wasn't a decade long depression. And who knows what criteria they used for these unemployment numbers. When people were working on their farms everyone was employed. When they started working in factories and getting wealthier, the wife didn't go work in the factory with the husband. Even still, I bet we wish our economic numbers during bad times looked like that today.What GDP was doing during the price deflation of the 1870's:
What about unemployment during this "deflationary boom"?
http://socialdemocracy21stcentury.bl...n-america.html
Rothbard claims this was not really a recession?
Net national product was NOT growing "extraordinarily" or even at all during the period. It did before and afterwards.
What he did say was:
While true it does not quite qualify as a "Depression" (defined as a contraction of ten percent or more)- it was certainly a recession and long period of stagnation. It certainly isn't a "myth".It should be clear, then, that the ‘great depression’ of the 1870s is merely a myth
and:
except that there wasn't "amazing prosperity and economic growth" during this era.hence their amazement at the obvious prosperity and economic growth during this era.
Last edited by Zippyjuan; 11-26-2015 at 10:50 PM.
Are we just supposed to ignore the 250% increase over 12 years that immediately followed that relatively innocuous horizontal line (its slope indicating that production neither increased nor decreased)?What GDP was doing during the price deflation of the 1870's:
No....I don't think anybody is saying there weren't booms during that period. Just the busts were much, much worse than the 2008 recession. Especially for the middle class and lower.
The period was selected to supposedly show deflation and strong economic growth occurring at the same time. Instead the deflation hit when the economic growth stopped. It did grow before and after as you note.
That is an inaccurate caricature.
If those little teeny tiny busts were the cost of those awesome booms, I'll take them.
Sure...and I say the same thing about the housing bubble. Warren Buffett made the point recently that the average american has been health care, technology, entertainment etc than the richest man in the world (JD Rockafeller) when he was born. Progress like that on such a short time scale is rare and I'll take the super small busts along the way.
Last edited by John X; 11-27-2015 at 01:25 PM.
It was a unique time. Population was growing rapidly. The country was expanding rapidly. Technology was growing rapidly. Now the economy and country have both matured and technology comes in more incremental rather than world- changing steps. Unless things get wiped out badly and we have to start again, it is unlikely we will see any such similar times again. (It was also following all the destruction of the Civil War- our other great boom followed the destruction after WWII- we weren't destroyed but were one of the few places left standing with resources to help rebuild that war's destruction).
Last edited by Zippyjuan; 11-27-2015 at 02:15 PM.
correct, holding dollars is a sure loser...the banking families do not allow deflation.
holding silver or gold is market based...on many factors.
That's just a lullaby losers sing themselves to convince themselves they didn't make a bad decision... I have been that loser myself at times...
If something is worth less than you paid for it now, months or years after you bought it, you chose poorly. Along with other favorite's like "great, I can buy more", and "I wasn't planning on selling anytime soon anyway"...
Even if whatever asset we are talking about does eventually go up, the fact is you could have bought even more of it in 2015 dollars than in 2015 -x dollars, if you hadn't made that bad decision...
Some people's timelines are longer than others. If you see anyone actually selling silver for $14/oz you let us know, k? That's a bs paper price that doesn't exist in the physical market.
Last edited by devil21; 11-28-2015 at 10:26 PM.
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
It's not about time frames....if you bought around 28 you could have double the silver if you waited. Yeah, fees on silver suck. Part of the reason why most people lose their shirt buying it.
Of course time frames matter. For some people, adding some imaginary digits the next day to an imaginary bank account is as far as their time frame extends. For some people, passing hard assets to family years later is their time frame. To each their own, I guess.
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
Time frames don't matter because no matter how long you wait half as much silver will be half as valuable. If you bought at 30 you could have passed on twice as much hard assets to family if you bought now. I'm not going to say to each their own since what I said is undeniable.
In the 60's silver went from around $1.25 and bounced just over $2.00. Just think what a screwed up decision it was to buy at $2.00 when it might have gone back down to $1.00. What idiots bought at $2.00 instead of investing in a crystal ball. Those that didn't buy came out the winners, clearly!
/$#@!ing sarc
"When a portion of wealth is transferred from the person who owns it—without his consent and without compensation, and whether by force or by fraud—to anyone who does not own it, then I say that property is violated; that an act of plunder is committed." - Bastiat : The Law
"nothing evil grows in alcohol" ~ @presence
"I mean can you imagine what it would be like if firemen acted like police officers? They would only go into a burning house only if there's a 100% chance they won't get any burns. I mean, you've got to fully protect thy self first." ~ juleswin
It doesn't take a crystal ball. People who bought stocks or real estate in the 60s did much, much better than people who bought silver as is usually the case and close to certain over longer periods. If you believe that CPI is a reasonable calculation of inflation silver buyers broke even.....if you think CPI massively understates inflation silver buyers have lost a ton of purchasing power over the last 50 years.
Last edited by John X; 11-28-2015 at 11:53 PM.
This is highly true. It's no big deal to make a mistake like this.....predicting the future can be hard and everybody who invests or speculates in commodity markets has done this. But pretending like it doesn't matter is as dumb as paying a coin dealer double his asking price and claiming it doesn't matter because you are going to hold a long time. Absolutely idiotic.
Last edited by John X; 11-29-2015 at 11:43 AM.
Do you think that 1870s bust is worse, better, or about equal to the US economy since 2008?
Y U NO SHARE CRYSTAL BALL WITH EVERYONE ELSE? lol
I didn't buy at $30 so your scenarios don't apply to me but congrats on your 20/20 hindsight. Don't forget to let us know when you actually see physical silver at this sub-$14/oz price you are talking about though. Seems kinda pointless to argue points on prices that don't actually exist in the real world.
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
Do you really need to borrow my crystal ball that can tell you what happened in the PAST and that buying silver at 20, 25, 30, 35,40 and 45 wasn't great? No wonder people have a tough time investing properly.
Oh wait I forgot TIME FRAMES!!!! Just wait it out and 2 pounds of silver will be worth 4 pounds of silver!!!!!!
Last edited by John X; 11-29-2015 at 12:14 PM.
They inflated, deflated, inflated, deflated, etc.No type of money has been able to avoid the boom- bust economic cycle.
Were prices stable under a gold standard in the US? Our currency finally ended its backing with metals in 1972. Were prices stable prior to that year?
Now look at the chart. Inflation only for a half century.
The more prohibitions you have,
the less virtuous people will be.
The more weapons you have,
the less secure people will be.
The more subsidies you have,
the less self-reliant people will be.
Therefore the Master says:
I let go of the law,
and people become honest.
I let go of economics,
and people become prosperous.
I let go of religion,
and people become serene.
I let go of all desire for the common good,
and the good becomes common as grass.
-Tao Te Ching, Section 57
Hate to be Captain Obvious here, but 1873 was when the free coinage of silver was suspended. Resulting economic downturn. . .Duh.
You mean the half century with the greatest gains for the middle class and poor in all of human history?
I think the word you meant to use was speculating, not investing. Physical metals are an investment. Stocks and other paper/digital asset classes (including paper silver) are more appropriately classified as speculation. Regardless, they're all hedges against inflation. Only one of the mentioned asset classes, however, is guaranteed to stay wherever you left it and always maintain value.
Couldn't resist building a strawman? Our exchange was going so well.Oh wait I forgot TIME FRAMES!!!! Just wait it out and 2 pounds of silver will be worth 4 pounds of silver!!!!!!
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
Eh, "internet advice"...
I am so, so sorryOriginally Posted by nayjevin
2012: "We may never see sub $30 silver again."
See that dip in Nov 08?
That's when I bought and never touched the stuff again.
Last edited by Anti Federalist; 11-29-2015 at 08:20 PM.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
Connect With Us