11%Originally Posted by derek4ever
No I'm serious.
Best hope is that 1) CBS/Yougov polls count and 2) Another 6% or better in NH.
Non-violence is the creed of those that maintain a monopoly on force.
Or 6% in Iowa, right?
If YouGov polls count, he needs a 6 in Iowa or 8 in NH.
If they don't he needs 8 in NH or 6 in Iowa.
Of course, if 2 polls come out, he would only need 10 over two polls for those that require 6 for one poll, or 12 over two polls for those that require 8 for one poll.
The enemy of my enemy may be worse than my enemy.
I do not suffer from Trump Rearrangement Syndrome. Sorry if that triggers you.
This but fixed (bolded).
Non-violence is the creed of those that maintain a monopoly on force.
Yikes! 11% nationwide just to cross the national 3.5% threshold? Well, i do think rand will make it to the main debate in the last minute!
Does anyone know which polls were used for the last CNN debate?
I was born in a welfare state/Ruled by bureaucracy/Controlled by civil servants/And people dressed in grey/Got no privacy, got no liberty/Cos the twentieth century people took it all away from me - Ray Davies
these:
most notable omission was PPP and maybe GravisThe overall average includes results from a Fox News poll released July 17; a Washington Post/ABC News poll released July 20; a CNN/ORC poll released July 26; a Quinnipiac University poll released July 30; a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released August 2; a Monmouth University poll released August 3; a Fox News poll released August 3; a Bloomberg Politics poll released August 4; a CBS News poll released August 4; a Fox News poll released August 16; a CNN/ORC poll released August 18; a Quinnipiac University poll released August 27; a Monmouth University poll released September 3; and a CNN/ORC poll released September 10.
Any chance CNN will throw out their old Iowa poll and just use their new one? That would put Rand at 4
I doubt it, because they used 2 of their own polls in September
Yes, but surely they know that Paul is good for ratings. Would they really stick to principleand make the debate less exciting when they have an easy out?
It's time to start flooding Chip Englander's Twitter asking him if Rand qualifies for the main debate. He's the campaign manager and he's responsible for making sure Rand's campaign is effective.
I don't see CNN caring too much about Rand either way right now, it's all about taking down Trump. This debate will be worse than the last CNN debate, and maybe as bad as the CNBC one, if they can't get other candidates to get stupid on Trump.
Just did
I was born in a welfare state/Ruled by bureaucracy/Controlled by civil servants/And people dressed in grey/Got no privacy, got no liberty/Cos the twentieth century people took it all away from me - Ray Davies
Just started following you.
Ditto. ThanksJust started following you.
I was born in a welfare state/Ruled by bureaucracy/Controlled by civil servants/And people dressed in grey/Got no privacy, got no liberty/Cos the twentieth century people took it all away from me - Ray Davies
Not saying this is a bad idea, but it's not unlikely the campaign is already in a dialogue with CNN about debate qualifications, and they're not yet making it public.
I don't know why I'm still trusting this Chip Englander guy...maybe it's because he got Rauner elected in IL...
Is he just saying what he needs to here??"We expect several more polls to come out over next few days, just today Senator Paul was in fifth place in the latest national poll. We are confident he'll be on the main stage." - Chip Englander
I was born in a welfare state/Ruled by bureaucracy/Controlled by civil servants/And people dressed in grey/Got no privacy, got no liberty/Cos the twentieth century people took it all away from me - Ray Davies
I haven't seen anything from this campaign so far that would make me doubt they are willing to fight, especially in situations like this.
He could have said, "it doesn't matter which stage Rand is on..." if he thought (or is sure) Rand isn't going to make the cut.
Another 2% in NH for Rand. The only way to make it now is with some good Iowa polls.
Christie on the other hand, is at 12 freaking percent (2nd place). WTF!
What a $#@!ing kick to the nuts that is. Christie? $#@!ing Christie is 2nd in NH???
Non-violence is the creed of those that maintain a monopoly on force.
These "averages" should be weighted for the number of respondents - of course.
A poll of 500 respondents (in IA, NH, or USA) of course will not be weighted as a simple average with the 900 or 1200 respondent polls in certain states or the nation.
His campaign and Kasich has gone all in for NH. Bush campaign has been doing a lot there too, but not quite all in.
Rauner squeaked by (50% vs. 46%) in a midterm election, spending millions of his own money, facing Blago's weakling lieutenant governor. Chip's whole strategy was keeping Rauner above the fray of controversial issues -- something that has failed spectacularly with Rand.
This is why I'm certain the polls are being rigged. Ron's son can't break a few percentage points only 3 years after his dad nearly won Iowa and finished very strong in NH? Yeah ok, I don't buy it. Not to say Rand really has Ron's numbers but the very wide gap defies logic. Rand should be able to retain half of that support or at least a quarter of it worst case. No one will ever convince me that NJ mobster Christie gets 12% in any neutral poll while Rand scores 2% in NH, of all places.
Last edited by devil21; 12-11-2015 at 07:20 PM.
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
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