Paul has risen three points, from 2 to 5 in the most recent California polls.

[mello]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...mary-5322.html

[hells_unicorn]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...mary-5322.html

What's even more interesting about this poll is that Trump dropped 7 points and Carson dropped 3 points. Fiorina and Rubio picked up 8 and 5 points due to the manufactured media buzz, whereas Cruz has remained flat. If Paul continues to inch up in the polls while Trump and Carson continue to fade, this will be very interesting.

[TheTexan]

Rand paul is #surging

[Crashland]

It's very little polling to go on, but from a couple polls and how the media and campaigns are developing, does anyone else get the feeling that Rand may have bottomed out and could start bouncing back soon?
I feel like the tone has been changing with the novelty of Trump fading away and people more willing to consider any candidate that might be a breather from the high drama clown car

[LawnWake]

It's very little polling to go on, but from a couple polls and how the media and campaigns are developing, does anyone else get the feeling that Rand may have bottomed out and could start bouncing back soon?
I feel like the tone has been changing with the novelty of Trump fading away and people more willing to consider any candidate that might be a breather from the high drama clown car

Yes, but I'm hesitant to proclaim how significant that bounce may be. But slowly over the last week, there seems to be a turnaround.

[William Tell]

Good news.

[MaxPower]

For the first time in several months, things seem to be moving in a slightly favorable direction for our man. With almost three months to go before the primaries start, if we can keep even a slow, modest positive momentum going, he might be back in contention when the ballots are finally cast-- especially if this is the beginning of a major Trump nosedive, in which case there will be a free-for-all for the voters he loses, and since Rand seems to have been one of the guys hurt worst by Trump's rise (he plunged in the polls at almost exactly the same time Trump ascended), there may be a good number of lost sheep coming home.

[eleganz]

2-6% is still within Rand's zone that he has been in since before the first debate.

He is not rising until he is going past 7%.

[Jonderdonk]

there may be a good number of lost sheep coming home.

Unfortunately, it seems that Cruz has set himself up remarkably well to be the recipient of those sheep.

[eleganz]

Frontrunners historically are the ones who are getting the most media attention, media mentions and poll numbers go hand in hand. Its all about name recognition.

[r3volution 3.0]

Unfortunately, it seems that Cruz has set himself up remarkably well to be the recipient of those sheep.

I'm not so sure about that.

Personality-wise, he and Trump are diametrical opposites. The folks who liked Trump's "alpha male" routine aren't going to like frumpy Ted the highschool debate team captain.

On the issues, Ted's all about fear-mongering on foreign policy and pandering to Christian social conservatives; Trump's sort of moderate on both.

If Trump's brought down on economic issues, as I think he will be, it indicates that his supporters (to the extent they care about issues at all) are moderate on foreign policy and social issues (as Trump was), but much more fiscally conservative than Trump. Moderate on social issues and foreign policy, extremely fiscally conservative...hmmm...which other candidate best fits that description?

Rand's best positioned for the impending Trumplosion, IMO - especially if he succeeds in making major hay out of the upcoming "fiscal cliff."

[goldwater's ghost]

It's very little polling to go on, but from a couple polls and how the media and campaigns are developing, does anyone else get the feeling that Rand may have bottomed out and could start bouncing back soon?
I feel like the tone has been changing with the novelty of Trump fading away and people more willing to consider any candidate that might be a breather from the high drama clown car

I think thats exactly what happened. He had a horrible first debate but a much better second debate. he started going up slightly after the second debate. People are still kicking the tires on the candidates. First it was trump and cruz, next its been Carson and fiorina. Now it seems like rubio is getting a bit but paul has basically doubled his polling from a low of about 2 to around 4 or 5 in most polls recently. i think going into the debate he'll be around 6 or 7 which will put him back firmly into the middle pack

[goldwater's ghost]

rand will get the hugest percentage of voters from carson when he implodes. not sure what percent of voters he'll get from trump. i think he has a good chance at 50% of carson's people though. that would put him back in the spotlight.

[twomp]

I'm not so sure about that.

Personality-wise, he and Trump are diametrical opposites. The folks who liked Trump's "alpha male" routine aren't going to like frumpy Ted the highschool debate team captain.

On the issues, Ted's all about fear-mongering on foreign policy and pandering to Christian social conservatives; Trump's sort of moderate on both.

If Trump's brought down on economic issues, as I think he will be, it indicates that his supporters (to the extent they care about issues at all) are moderate on foreign policy and social issues (as Trump was), but much more fiscally conservative than Trump. Moderate on social issues and foreign policy, extremely fiscally conservative...hmmm...which other candidate best fits that description?

Rand's best positioned for the impending Trumplosion, IMO - especially if he succeeds in making major hay out of the upcoming "fiscal cliff."

You are funny. You make it seem like teh Donald's supporters actually care about issues. They were told by the television to support him and so they do. The Team Red sheep are just as dumb as the Team Blue sheep. I bet if Clinton and Trump completely switched their stances on the issues, the idiots in both parties would still support them. This is America the land of the television.

[Jonderdonk]

I'm not so sure about that.

Personality-wise, he and Trump are diametrical opposites. The folks who liked Trump's "alpha male" routine aren't going to like frumpy Ted the highschool debate team captain.

On the issues, Ted's all about fear-mongering on foreign policy and pandering to Christian social conservatives; Trump's sort of moderate on both.

If Trump's brought down on economic issues, as I think he will be, it indicates that his supporters (to the extent they care about issues at all) are moderate on foreign policy and social issues (as Trump was), but much more fiscally conservative than Trump. Moderate on social issues and foreign policy, extremely fiscally conservative...hmmm...which other candidate best fits that description?

Rand's best positioned for the impending Trumplosion, IMO - especially if he succeeds in making major hay out of the upcoming "fiscal cliff."

I disagree entirely with your assessment of Ted Cruz's public perception. And that you think that Trump's supporters care about the issues. But that's a matter of opinion.

In what way do you think that Rand has made himself attractive to any of Trump's supporters?

[CPUd]

I disagree entirely with your assessment of Ted Cruz's public perception. And that you think that Trump's supporters care about the issues. But that's a matter of opinion.

In what way do you think that Rand has made himself attractive to any of Trump's supporters?

Rand will get the ones who realize the Trump has been recently been saying the things that Rand has been talking about (with a voting record to support it) for years.

[Jonderdonk]

Rand will get the ones who realize the Trump has been recently been saying the things that Rand has been talking about (with a voting record to support it) for years.

Do you think those issues (I assume you're referring mainly to foreign policy) are key issues to Trump supporters, though? I get the sense that Trump's single most important issue is immigration, and Rand is certainly not the next in line in terms of immigration hardliners.

[r3volution 3.0]

In what way do you think that Rand has made himself attractive to any of Trump's supporters?

The Trump phenomenon is not about social issues or foreign policy (which means candidates like Cruz are not a good fit).

It was originally driven (to the extent that issues mattered at all) by immigration.

But immigration fatigue is already setting in, and when Trump collapses, there's going to be no one else for the immigration hardliners to rally around.

...and I don't think it was ever really about immigration, in itself, anyway.

I think these people are in essence not immigration hawks but "it's the economy, stupid" voters. They don't really care about abstractions (social issues) or foreign affairs; they want a chicken in the pot, and they followed Trump because he promised them that kicking out the Mexicans and "beating China" would yield more chickens. Think Ross Perot. Now, I think Rand is best positioned to be the leader on economic issues. And he can also (if he plays his cards right) get back his credibility as an outsider (as, say, by bucking the party establishment on the impending debt ceiling fight, as he's setting up to do, which would kill two birds with one stone).

You might object, how could voters who supported socialistic Trump end up supporting Rand because of his free market economic policies? The answer? They're idiots. They don't know Mises from Marx. They're economic voters in the sense that they want results, not that they have any particular idea about how to achieve them. Trump conned them into thinking it was about immigration and trade; Rand can persuade them that it's really about excessive government control of the economy.

[The Northbreather]

The Trump phenomenon is not about social issues or foreign policy (which means candidates like Cruz are not a good fit).

It was originally driven (to the extent that issues mattered at all) by immigration.

But immigration fatigue is already setting in, and when Trump collapses, there's going to be no one else for the immigration hardliners to rally around.

...and I don't think it was ever really about immigration, in itself, anyway.

I think these people are in essence not immigration hawks but "it's the economy, stupid" voters. They don't really care about abstractions (social issues) or foreign affairs; they want a chicken in the pot, and they followed Trump because he promised them that kicking out the Mexicans and "beating China" would yield more chickens. Think Ross Perot. Now, I think Rand is best positioned to be the leader on economic issues. And he can also (if he plays his cards right) get back his credibility as an outsider (as, say, by bucking the party establishment on the impending debt ceiling fight, as he's setting up to do, which would kill two birds with one stone).

You might object, how could voters who supported socialistic Trump end up supporting Rand because of his free market economic policies? The answer? They're idiots. They don't know Mises from Marx. They're economic voters in the sense that they want results, not that they have any particular idea about how to achieve them. Trump conned them into thinking it was about immigration and trade; Rand can persuade them that it's really about excessive government control of the economy.

Amen to that

[CPUd]

Do you think those issues (I assume you're referring mainly to foreign policy) are key issues to Trump supporters, though? I get the sense that Trump's single most important issue is immigration, and Rand is certainly not the next in line in terms of immigration hardliners.

If they are veterans, I think they will definitely give Rand another look regardless how they feel about illegal immigration.

[Stannis]

This poll is meaningless. Show me an Iowa or NH poll and maybe it will make a difference.