TRUMP FALLS TO SECOND PLACE NATIONALLY [IBD/TIPP]

[carlton]

David Straddler is crying into a pillow right now.

• Carson – 24%
• Trump – 17%
• Rubio – 11%
• Fiorina – 9%
• Bush – 8%
• Cruz – 6%
• Kasich – 4%
• Paul – 3%
• Huckabee – 2%
• Christie – 2%
• All Others – less than 2%
• Undecided – 9%

Survey of 377 registered Republicans or Republican leaning independents was done Sept 26-Oct 1 and has a margin of error of ±5%.

[carlton]

"Losing steam in the most recent polls, Republican candidate Trump has 'donned' a new look."

[AngryCanadian]

Why bother? the rest of the filed are all for a new intervention in Syria.

[carlton]

Why bother? the rest of the filed are all for a new intervention in Syria.

Pauls going to win it. And it will all start with an upset in Iowa... well an upset for everyone but those in the know.

[r3volution 3.0]

[movingstone]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...cid=newsletter

My advice would be to completely ignore this poll. There are pollsters out there that have an agenda but are highly competent, and there are pollsters that are nonpartisan but not particularly skilled. Rarely, however, do you find the whole package: that special pollster which is both biased and inept. IBD/TIPP is one of the few exceptions.

I also suspicious because the poll included Paul Ryan instead of Rand Paul.

For polls around the same time period.

http://polling.reuters.com/#!respons...se/chart/table

Latest Reuter poll (into Oct)

http://www.oann.com/trump-dominates-...national-poll/

Gravis Marketing poll (into Oct)

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/...al-gop-primary

Polls in late September.

Letting down your guard now is foolish. The same Gravis Marketing poll had Trump tied with Fiorina just a day after the second debate is now saying something different.


http://news.investors.com/ibd-editor...-tipp-poll.htm

Notice Ryan where Rand Paul is at.

During the past 2 weeks, polls are all over the place.

[movingstone]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1...raudulent-Poll

Dailykos is not the best news source but,

Voters aged 18-24

McCain 74
Obama 22

Even the worst moron could sniff the sewage of that internal. Exactly what part of the country was IBD/TIPP polling - the Liberty University College Republicans? Obama has been overwhelming carrying that age group during the entire primary and general election seasons. That McCain could be carrying this age demographic (and by a three to one margin) is tantamount to Obama carrying seniors by a ten to one margin. Either IBD/TIPP reversed its results in error, or they polled the deepest parts of Sean Hannity's family reunion and multiplied the results by a factor of thirty. In either case, the internal is deeply flawed and statistically incorrect.

Was there a time where Mccain lead the youth vote??

[dannno]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1...raudulent-Poll

Dailykos is not the best news source but,



Was there a time where Mccain lead the youth vote??

lol, no... polling is total bull$#@!. Ask Frank Luntz.

[Peace&Freedom]

A national poll with a sample of only 377 is being taken seriously? And it was Republicans and independents, instead of Republicans only? Please. It might as well scream, "we're trying to engineer a different result." Even the famously skewed "Santorum is surging" poll of January 2012 had higher sample. Can we settle on a minimum of 900-1000+ and only GOP respondents for the GOP primaries, as a standard going forward?

[MrGoose]

Pauls going to win it. And it will all start with an upset in Iowa... well an upset for everyone but those in the know.

What do you mean? I want to be in the know.

[kahless]

Notice Ryan where Rand Paul is at.

Well that just emanates confidence in their polling abilities.

I think there are some here that would rather have a hardcore Neocon interventionist in the White House rather than a Paleocon like Trump. I would rather have Trump and Rand in either of the top two slots to ensure that does not happen.

I think people have failed to think about the worst case scenario in this race. The possibility of a President Marco Rubio, just when you think it could not get any worse than a John McCain.

[klamath]

Well that just emanates confidence in their polling abilities.

I think there are some here that would rather have a hardcore Neocon interventionist in the White House rather than a Paleocon like Trump. I would rather have Trump and Rand in either of the top two slots to ensure that does not happen.

I think people have failed to think about the worst case scenario in this race. The possibility of a President Marco Rubio, just when you think it could not get any worse than a John McCain.

You are right. I would rather see a neocon than trump. Trump as president with his inability to admit he is wrong would translate into thousands of dead US troops.

[sparebulb]

Hmmm.

Other than our 4% hope, here's our choice at present:

Mr. Dr. Ben Carson, MD with a neocon arm stuffed so far up his butt that they work his jaw like Charlie McCarthy to wage a war against Russia.............

or

An egotistical boob that has been on record as questioning our aggression toward Russia.

The choice is clear in this perspective.

[William Tell]

I think there are some here that would rather have a hardcore Neocon interventionist in the White House rather than a Paleocon like Trump. I would rather have Trump and Rand in either of the top two slots to ensure that does not happen.

Since when did Paleocons support government funded universal healthcare?

[jkob]

For Trump to fall someone else has to ascend to front runner status, I don't think it is going to be Carson or Fiorina and Jeb/Rubio look like total duds.

[francisco]

You are right. I would rather see a neocon than trump. Trump as president with his inability to admit he is wrong would translate into thousands of dead US troops.

Same here. Another neocon in office would be "the devil we know", the final straw to break the camel's back, an enemy for the Liberty movement that we can fight and win over more time.

Trump, on the other hand, with his nationalist-socialist ideology, would be an unmitigated disaster for the USA and the rest of the world, far worse than any straight-off-the-shelf neocon.

[hells_unicorn]

I think there are some here that would rather have a hardcore Neocon interventionist in the White House rather than a Paleocon like Trump. I would rather have Trump and Rand in either of the top two slots to ensure that does not happen.

Since when has Trump ever been a Paleocon? This is news to me, and I've leaned Paleo-conservative for the better part of the 17 years I've been old enough to vote.

[William Tell]

Since when has Trump ever been a Paleocon? This is news to me, and I've leaned Paleo-conservative for the better part of the 17 years I've been old enough to vote.

Yeah, I'm about the same as you. Apparently any communist who says he believes in having a border is a Paleocon now?

I used to think the word meant something.

[hells_unicorn]

Yeah, I'm about the same as you. Apparently any communist who says he believes in having a border is a Paleocon now?

I used to think the word meant something.

There are certain "people" on this forum that have clean forgotten that people like Pat Buchanan were about more than just protectionism, though that was part of his platform. Some people are just confusing being a nationalist with not liking mariachi bands and salsa, which is about how much thought is being put in to supporting Trump given the wildly incongruous shifts in position he's taken over just the past couple weeks.

[kahless]

There are certain "people" on this forum that have clean forgotten that people like Pat Buchanan were about more than just protectionism, though that was part of his platform. Some people are just confusing being a nationalist with not liking mariachi bands and salsa, which is about how much thought is being put in to supporting Trump given the wildly incongruous shifts in position he's taken over just the past couple weeks.

Aside from the health care aspect, Trump's platform on trade and immigration is very similar to Pat Buchanan's. If you read Pat's columns they have been very favorable to Trump despite their rivalry for the Reform Party nomination in 2000.

I am not just pulling this Paleocon label out of thin air. It is what Trump is being most characterized as since no one fits a party label or ideology perfectly.

Calling Trump a perfect Paleocon would be like calling Rand a perfect Libertarian. No one is doing either.

[kahless]

Yeah, I'm about the same as you. Apparently any communist who says he believes in having a border is a Paleocon now?

I used to think the word meant something.

I do not agree with the disinformation campaign, I think it makes Rand and his supporters that do so look like they must use weak arguments and tactics to win rather than through substance which I think Rand has.

But get real, no one is buying that Communist nonsense as far as disinformation. Not even the sheeple voter which certainly do not read here.

[enhanced_deficit]

Cain Surges, Nearly Ties Romney for Lead in GOP ...
www.gallup.com/poll/.../cain-surges-nearly-ties-romney-lead-gop-...
Oct 10, 2011 - Mitt Romney and Herman Cain lead the Republican field for the 2012 GOP ... they are receiving from the Republican straw polls and debates.

Cain Leads GOP Field in National Poll
www.realclearpolitics.com/.../cain_leads_gop_field_in_...
Nov 2, 2011 - Herman Cain sits at the top of the Republican field in a new national poll that finished surveying voters as allegations surfaced that the ...






This is bad news of Carson. Until now, most GOP candidates including Rand and his supporters were focussing their attacks on pack leader Trump using the "attack the lead" strategy. Now as all "attack the lead" folks would start attacking Carson, he would buckle as he does not seem to have Trump like 'Teflon Don' quality.

Won't be surprised if some conservative critics of his used same talking points as libs/Obama supporters had used against "Affirmative Action Surgeon" Ben Carson:




September 21, 2015
Ben Carson Shattering Stereotype About Brain Surgeons Being Smart


[IMG]https://********************************/2015/04/mindy.jpg?w=720&h=480&crop=1[/IMG]


Click here to view the original image of 960x864px.



MSNBC Pundit Suggests Ben Carson an Affirmative-Action Case

Geraldo: Republicans are just pretending they’ll vote for Carson because HE’S BLACK!

September 4, 2015

http://www.bizpacreview.com/2015/09/04/geraldo-republicans-are-just-pretending-theyll-vote-for-carson-because-hes-black-247398

[Liberty74]

A national poll with a sample of only 377 is being taken seriously? And it was Republicans and independents, instead of Republicans only? Please. It might as well scream, "we're trying to engineer a different result." Even the famously skewed "Santorum is surging" poll of January 2012 had higher sample. Can we settle on a minimum of 900-1000+ and only GOP respondents for the GOP primaries, as a standard going forward?

900-1000 caucus/primary voters is required for a more accurate poll but about 20-25% of your polling needs to include Indy voters especially those that lean Republican and ones that will vote in those open primaries like Iowa and NH. The Republican only poll was what gave Santorum that fake surge that the media all reported and the sheep followed.

[William Tell]

Since when did Paleocons support government funded universal healthcare?

Notice how kahless did not answer my question.

[hells_unicorn]

Notice how kahless did not answer my question.

Nor will he, I fear.

Aside from the health care aspect, Trump's platform on trade and immigration is very similar to Pat Buchanan's. If you read Pat's columns they have been very favorable to Trump despite their rivalry for the Reform Party nomination in 2000.

I am not just pulling this Paleocon label out of thin air. It is what Trump is being most characterized as since no one fits a party label or ideology perfectly.

Calling Trump a perfect Paleocon would be like calling Rand a perfect Libertarian. No one is doing either.

What about all the other stuff apart from the Trade and Immigration issue? You're not worried about Trump's crony capitalist past, his ham-fisted notion of taxing the rich and whining about hedge fund people (as though they are the only people gaming the system), and his utterly incomprehensible foreign policy?

You just basically proved my point that you're practically a one-issue voter with all this yammering about trade/immigration, and Pat Buchanan praising Trump does not make Trump a Paleo-con anymore than Glenn Beck self-identifying as a libertarian makes him such. The point about Rand is a non-sequitur, the issue isn't 100% purity or bitching over tactics and occasional exceptions to an ideological rule, the issue is granting some one ideological status because of a single-issue stance, and one that he didn't really hold until recently.

[Batman]

This is bad news of Carson. Until now, most GOP candidates including Rand and his supporters were focussing their attacks on pack leader Trump using the "attack the lead" strategy. Now as all "attack the lead" folks would start attacking Carson, he would buckle as he does not seem to have Trump like 'Teflon Don' quality.

Won't be surprised if some conservative critics of his used same talking points as libs/Obama supporters had used against "Affirmative Action Surgeon" Ben Carson:




September 21, 2015
Ben Carson Shattering Stereotype About Brain Surgeons Being Smart


[IMG]https://********************************/2015/04/mindy.jpg?w=720&h=480&crop=1[/IMG]


Click here to view the original image of 960x864px.



MSNBC Pundit Suggests Ben Carson an Affirmative-Action Case

Geraldo: Republicans are just pretending they’ll vote for Carson because HE’S BLACK!

September 4, 2015

http://www.bizpacreview.com/2015/09/04/geraldo-republicans-are-just-pretending-theyll-vote-for-carson-because-hes-black-247398

I've always had a suspicion about his "intelligence". Every time he opens his mouth he just confirms it for me.

[hells_unicorn]

I've always had a suspicion about his "intelligence". Every time he opens his mouth he just confirms it for me.

There are a lot of different kinds of smarts. There's logical skills that makes one effective in a number of fields, including that of higher science and technology, that also results in one being highly introverted and difficult at articulating oneself in a non-logical setting. Ben Carson would function perfectly as a professor of human physiology, but as a politician or even just a statesman, he's not effective. People involved in science tend to deal in repetitive formulas and controlled experimentation, politics involves being intuitive and rapidly adaptive to an ephemeral environment, which is where Carson appears to be at a massive disadvantage. In later debates, once the numbers are thinned out a bit, Carson will get knocked around like crazy just as Herman Cain did, and he won't be able to keep it together. The only difference between Carson and Cain that I'm seeing is that I don't think Carson will get sunk by some scandal in his past, and that he'll probably hang in until after Iowa, and maybe through New Hampshire as well.

[kahless]

Notice how kahless did not answer my question.

Nor will he, I fear.

Actually I did in this thread a few posts back that you chose not to read. http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...=1#post6006473

I will expand on that to. Trump has not released his repeal and replace plan as of yet so we just guessing where he stands on the particulars at this point.

What we do know is Trump proposes allowing insurance companies to compete across state lines to lower costs. This is the same policy that Rand and Ron have been fighting for. For the uninsured he did say something to the effect of making deals with hospitals which I think might mean paying the premiums for the uninsured, but that is unclear as of yet.

I suspect you are not going to be able to get the votes for repeal and replace if the new system does to cover those that cannot afford health insurance. So it sounds like a trade off, we get deregulation allowing interstate competition to lower premiums and the Progs get something like a subsidy for those that cannot afford insurance or some deal made with hospitals to pay for services.

Either way it is still an improvement over Obamacare and the previous system that restricted competition.

[kahless]

What about all the other stuff apart from the Trade and Immigration issue? You're not worried about Trump's crony capitalist past, his ham-fisted notion of taxing the rich and whining about hedge fund people (as though they are the only people gaming the system), and his utterly incomprehensible foreign policy?

You just basically proved my point that you're practically a one-issue voter with all this yammering about trade/immigration, and Pat Buchanan praising Trump does not make Trump a Paleo-con anymore than Glenn Beck self-identifying as a libertarian makes him such. The point about Rand is a non-sequitur, the issue isn't 100% purity or bitching over tactics and occasional exceptions to an ideological rule, the issue is granting some one ideological status because of a single-issue stance, and one that he didn't really hold until recently.

I take all the issues combined of candidate and weigh both the good and bad. I have concerns about Trump like one would any candidate. I think Trump is less dangerous than that of Rubio or Fiorina.

Trade and immigration are more than one issue and are have a very high impact on our future in this country. Add the economy, his tax plan and healthcare. Still an improvement over past administrations and our current crop of candidates.

[LatinsforPaul]

How these former Ron Paul Presidential supporters now support and defend a liberal, Donald Trump, still astonishes me.