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According to a poll released by Reuters this week, Rand Paul is gaining after a summer slump.
Presently, Paul garners at 5.6 percent of the vote, with Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz just behind him at 5.3 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively.
While the three “outsider” candidates, Donald Trump (30 percent), Ben Carson (12.9 percent), and Carly Fiorina (10.8 percent) remain at the top of the pack for now, Paul’s gain, particularly in light of Scott Walker and Rick Perry dropping out, is a sign that interest in his campaign could be increasing. Unusually, a specific margin of error was not provided in the Reuter’s survey.
Paul polling ahead of his senate colleagues Rubio and Cruz is positive news for a candidate that many in the media have speculated would be the next to drop out. Paul is pulling triple duty currently between a presidential race, his senate reelection, and regular voting business in Washington. He has spent this week in the senate focused on battles over funding the government.
On Tuesday, Paul gave an impassioned speech against voting for a continuing resolution, chiding his senate colleagues for continuing what he called their “immoral” deficit spending, which is reliant upon borrowing one million dollars per minute. Cruz joined Paul in voting against the continuing resolution, while Rubio, who has missed nearly 30 percent of his senate votes, wasn’t present.
Due to his less-than-ideal fundraising and polling numbers in recent months, some news outlets have speculated that Paul’s upcoming trip to Kentucky to focus on his senate reelection is a death knell for his presidential ambitions. His campaign however, asserts that splitting Paul’s time in this fashion was always a part of the plan, and is charging ahead, happy with the latest polling news.
Said Paul’s campaign manager Chip Englander, “The Reuters poll tracks with our internal metrics that show Senator Paul moving up in the polls.” Englander further noted that this comes on the heels of Paul winning the largest Republican straw poll in the country, held in Michigan earlier this month.
Englander continued, “Senator Paul is generating huge crowds everywhere he goes as he talks about his plan to eliminate $500 billion in one year, pass a flat tax, and term limits to get rid of the career politicians.”
“This Reuters poll is just the latest in several metrics of the Senator’s strengths,” he added.
Whether Paul can continue to gain if the three non-politician frontrunners falter, remains to be seen. What we do know however, is that it’s not uncommon for outsider candidates to fade, similar to Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain in 2008.
Perhaps Paul, who was elected to the Senate as the ultimate outsider, can be successful playing a slow and steady game, or can at least show this is still anybody’s race to win.
Read more at http://rare.us/story/rand-paul-gains...drvg1MXBx5f.99
Perhaps CNBC knew this poll was coming out, causing them to exclude Reuters as one of the polls contributing to the average used to qualify candidates for the debates.
-----Peace & Freedom, John Clifton-----
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One organization looking into the future and being able to predict not just another site's poll, but the individual results per candidate and determining based on speculation that it wasn't worth including, even though there's no reason to think that CNBC was in contact Rare.us about their presidential polls? ...really?Originally Posted by Peace&Freedom
How much precedent do we have for a candidate rebounding after losing their spot in the polls?
What does "losing their spot in the polls" mean here?
We have lots of precedent for people going up and down in the polls over time.
Very nice. I did a quick Google search but found nothing. Are there any mainstream sites with this info that we can send to Drudge?
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Was the 5.6 an average or the value on the final day?
It looks to me like it was the average, and the final day of polling was more like 8%
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Well I dunno how to say this without being banned. Forgive me for being blunt. But it's my job so I'll do it.
If you go from first in the polls to almost last, doesn't that mean that voters have heard your message and rejected it? It just seems like after a candidate surges and then collapses, they don't ever get back up again.
Here's another graph, you can see the surges pretty clearly:
This time around the graph looks like this:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tion-3823.html
You can see it looks like Trump is crashing. Bush has already peaked. Carson is on the way up now, and Fiorina just had a huge spike in the polls. The polls this time don't have the same neat "surge" pattern they did back in 2012 (at least not yet, it didn't start until June 2011 last time). But you can see Rand's numbers peaked way back in October 2014 when he was in first place, and have never recovered. Based on polling data we have, it doesn't look like any of the candidates bounce back once they go down.
I don't know what this says about the Republican electorate. Either they support who the media tells them too, they're really fickle. Or maybe this is how they like choosing their candidates, by process of elimination.
It could be that Rand hasn't had his surge yet, and is just crouched in the grass waiting for his moment to pounce. It's hard to know really.
Last edited by DevilsAdvocate; 10-01-2015 at 08:33 AM.
McCain did in 2008. Romney did in the graph you just displayed. It's just the way it goes. Candidates go up and down and back up all the time.
Besides, this year Rand hasn't had a turn yet to have the spotlight at the top of the polls.
Not recently. Maybe he will again. We shall see.
I think you're not taking into consideration the number of candidates in the race at the time of polling. with 15 candidates, 5% is below mathematical expectation and 8% is above mathematical expectation. With 5 candidates, 20% is mathematical expectation.
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A very good point
Why do you say "again"? Has Rand ever been the top polling candidate?
Yes he was #1 almost exactly 1 year ago. Juuuust above Bush.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tion-3823.html
Go to the "max" time line, check it out. It looks like what really crushed his poll numbers was Trump
Last edited by DevilsAdvocate; 10-01-2015 at 10:56 AM.
That's his reason for posting about it. He is claiming Rand had his shot and missed it.
Some people have said the Reuters poll is an internet poll - does anyone have any info on the polling methodology? I am too lazy to try to find that or the crosstabs on my mobile device :-)
Regardless, its nice to have even just a hint of positive news at the moment with the entire media saying the campaign is good as dead.
Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. -Douglas Hofstadter
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Even if that rule of thumb were accurate, which I doubt, it would only be applicable to Rand if Rand had prior to now already enjoyed a time at the top of the polls. I don't think he has. Has he?
No, not really. But the same goes for all the other candidates not named Trump.
Rand at 6.2 today on the Reuters poll
the rEVOLution begins!
This is delusional. I feel like everyone has lost all of their critical thinking abilities. What is going on??
This is not a reuters poll. It is a data set that people are opportunistically filtering to make it look like Paul is doing better than he really is.
Paul is continuing to lose ground, falling down to 2.3% in the RCP average.
Check out the GOP horserace of 2012 at this link, by clicking on "Start Race"
Yes, RP finishes second . . .
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a..._campaign.html
It was just filtered to Republicans polled only. Without that filter he is hanging around 4 to 5% which is still a rise from the 2 to 3% he was getting recently.
the rEVOLution begins!
removed
Last edited by brandon; 10-02-2015 at 02:17 PM.
Actually he is at 5.6% with likely primary voters. Up from around 1 to 2% from a week ago.
the rEVOLution begins!
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