Rand on the Debate Bubble for CNBC

[carlton]

The criteria for the October 28 debate in Boulder, Colorado, is as follows:

National polls will be used to determine a candidate's eligibility and placement on the stage. To be eligible to appear in either segment, a candidate must have at least 1 percent in any one of the methodologically sound and recognized national polls conducted by: NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox, CNN and Bloomberg, released between September 17, 2015 and October 21, 2015.

To appear in the 8 p.m. debate a candidate must have an average of 3 percent among these polls. The polls will be averaged and will be rounded up to 3 percent for any candidate with a standing of 2.5 percent or higher. Candidates who average below that will be invited to the 6 p.m. debate.

As, of now Rand's poll #'s for the criteria are so:

CNN 9/17-9/19: 4
Bloomberg 9/18-9/21: 2
Fox 9/20-9/22: 2
NBC 9/20-9/24: 3

These numbers average to 2.75 which is rounded up to 3. For the moment, Rand is in the main debate.

[chronicaust]

WHOO! And hopefully we keep up the recent positive momentum.

[Mad Raven]

Thanks for sharing! Looking ok so far!

[Jan2017]

Santorum and Jindal are the only debaters currently eligible for the second tier .

The interesting thing about the main participants, besides the fact that Trump might well have Ben Carson on one side of him and Carly Fiorina on the other, is Rand Paul.
Paul gets in by the skin of his teeth right now, rounded up to 3 points. Three more polls at 2 percent, and he's booted downstairs.
(The undercard folks are safe, by the way. They only needed one 1-percent-or-more poll in the required time period and have already done so.)
As we've seen before, this will change. There are only four polls in the mix right now, meaning that a few more polls could shift things a lot.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/t...blican-debate/

[jllundqu]

Rand is being hammered daily. They will try to press his poll numbers just below the threshold. If they succeed, the campaign is over. The JV debate would mean the end of the road.

It all comes down to the next couple weeks of rigged polling.

[eleganz]

Hmm...IPSOS/Reuters polls not included even though they were the most accurate during the 2012 presidential election.

[satchelmcqueen]

ok thats not so bad, but damn polls are so convoluted to base anything off of.

[mit26chell]

So will the media establishment push out a couple more polls showing Rand @ 1% just in time to kick him to the non-factor debate stage? Only time will tell.

[Liberty74]

So will the media establishment push out a couple more polls showing Rand @ 1% just in time to kick him to the non-factor debate stage? Only time will tell.

This is where the campaign including Rand need to do some politicking with CNBC. Meaning the polls used need to be legit and why not include the Reuter polls.

[mello]

Here's another story about it on the DailyMail:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...ing-alone.html

If he is forced down to the kiddie table, he might be the only candidate on the stage. Not sure if this is good or bad. On the good side of the ledger, he would literally have all the talk time. On the bad side of the ledger, how many people would tune in to watch?

[CPUd]

I think he'll be OK for this one. Especially since they are not using PPP and Q polls. He'll be back to 5 or 6% in a couple weeks.

[squirl22]

NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox, CNN and Bloomberg,

This is the problem; they are all making sure he does not get into debate...I wish Rand's campaign was more proactive in getting fair polling or at least pointing out the unfairness of the polls, like not polling young people. I don't know anything about who is working for his campaign, but the don't seem to be very proactive, countering some of the false stories, etc. What's the problem; their candidate is getting screwed and they don't say anything?

[HVACTech]

looks like the MSM (CNBC) has decided that ONLY they (and Bloomberg) get to do the polling.
nothing suspicious about that...

"In contrast to its predecessors, CNBC is only using polls conducted by or in partnership with the major news networks and Bloomberg, and only ones released between Sept. 17 and Oct. 21. So far, only four polls qualify."

perfectly reasonable of course.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/t...blican-debate/

[carlton]

looks like the MSM (CNBC) has decided that ONLY they (and Bloomberg) get to do the polling.
nothing suspicious about that...

"In contrast to its predecessors, CNBC is only using polls conducted by or in partnership with the major news networks and Bloomberg, and only ones released between Sept. 17 and Oct. 21. So far, only four polls qualify."

perfectly reasonable of course.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/t...blican-debate/

Well, its because of this criteria that Paul makes it to the main debate at all so far so....

[Brett85]

This is where the campaign including Rand need to do some politicking with CNBC. Meaning the polls used need to be legit and why not include the Reuter polls.

Because it's an internet poll. Internet polls are never included.

[Brett85]

looks like the MSM (CNBC) has decided that ONLY they (and Bloomberg) get to do the polling.
nothing suspicious about that...

"In contrast to its predecessors, CNBC is only using polls conducted by or in partnership with the major news networks and Bloomberg, and only ones released between Sept. 17 and Oct. 21. So far, only four polls qualify."

perfectly reasonable of course.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/t...blican-debate/

But isn't there a decent chance that CNN, Fox, ABC, and/or Bloomberg could release another poll before the 21st of October? If they did, would they just include the most recent poll number?

[65fastback2+2]

I'm going to say something not popular here, just for a second.

Right now, because its early, the 2nd tier debate would actually be just fine.

Fewer candidates, more talk time, AND (the most interesting point), the 55+ demographic that Rand needs the most help with, THEY are the ones who watch a 6pm debate to go to bed at 9pm. They dont like staying up till 11pm-12am trying to watch the main debate.

Fewer candidates means Rand can focus on his message more and worry less about having to defend himself against shots.

AND, 2nd tier doesnt mean you're doomed...Fiorina moved from 2nd to 1st.

Just something to chew on.

[carlton]

I'm going to say something not popular here, just for a second.

Right now, because its early, the 2nd tier debate would actually be just fine.

Fewer candidates, more talk time, AND (the most interesting point), the 55+ demographic that Rand needs the most help with, THEY are the ones who watch a 6pm debate to go to bed at 9pm. They dont like staying up till 11pm-12am trying to watch the main debate.

Fewer candidates means Rand can focus on his message more and worry less about having to defend himself against shots.

AND, 2nd tier doesnt mean you're doomed...Fiorina moved from 2nd to 1st.

Just something to chew on.

I actually think the second tier debate may be better for Rand, in that he gets more face time... however it would play into the storyline the evil media is trying to push right now about Rand's campaign and that wouldnt be good.

[65fastback2+2]

I actually think the second tier debate may be better for Rand, in that he gets more face time... however it would play into the storyline the evil media is trying to push right now about Rand's campaign and that wouldnt be good.

ya, the headlines is the only thing i can think that would be bad.

lets face it, most of my friends and family, just watch youtube debate videos the next day...they dont even watch the things live. so the most important point to me is the talk time.

[DevilsAdvocate]

Think about it...Colorado.

Isn't Rand the best possible person for the Republican party to put on stage here? With the marijuana issue?
Oh but my mistake, that would be bad for Trump. Can't have that

[Feelgood]

Wow, in by the skin of his teeth. Hopefully it holds.

[limequat]

As far as I can tell, the only thing that changes is that Graham wouldn't be invited at all.

The next couple of polls could change things though.

[erowe1]

Rand is being hammered daily.

That will help more than hurt I think.

[jonhowe]

This is not looking good. We're only in because of ROUNDING. And the anti-Rand propaganda is EVERYWHERE this week. Rand needs to change something to keep his spot!

[limequat]

Disagree.
According to the reuters poll he is trending up past 5%. Note that he's been making a lot of media appearances lately.

[jkob]

the JV debate would at least let Rand get speaking time, they'll get their Rand-Graham showdown and he'll seem like the biggest star in the thing, I can't imagine the media pumping him up afterwards tho

probably try to get a Lindsay Graham surge going hahaha

[Jonderdonk]

probably try to get a Lindsay Graham surge going hahaha

"Lindsey Graham, a fresh, young face with bold new ideas for the Republican Party."

[RonPaulGeorge&Ringo]

They're not using Reuters.

Disagree.
According to the reuters poll he is trending up past 5%. Note that he's been making a lot of media appearances lately.

[RonPaulGeorge&Ringo]

If the RNC keeps Rand out of the debate, he needs to show some balls and start doing his own debates. Take up the idea to debate Sanders, maybe some of the other Dems if interested, Gary Johnson, whatever...

Rand is being hammered daily. They will try to press his poll numbers just below the threshold. If they succeed, the campaign is over. The JV debate would mean the end of the road.

It all comes down to the next couple weeks of rigged polling.

[Paul4Prez]

Of course they want to try to exclude Rand Paul -- this debate will focus on the economy.

Being off the main stage with Trump might not be so bad though -- Rand could clean up on the B-teamers.

2.5 percent is certainly likely though, and could push Christie and Kasich to the minors.