except that blithering idiot trump makes it work....for now.Originally Posted by eleganz
"Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it; no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it."
James Madison
"It does not take a majority to prevail ... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men." - Samuel Adams
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The feds an intellectual issue and 95% of voters vote on emotion. He needs to get an emotional connection and not sound like a college professor. He has to sell himself and if you know about sales you know you need to create an emotional connection to the item your selling.
"Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it; no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it."
James Madison
"It does not take a majority to prevail ... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men." - Samuel Adams
Μολὼν λάβε
Dum Spiro, Pugno
Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito
Ron sounds more like a professor. Rand tends to talk down to people, not intentionally, but in a way that most doctors do.
any issue can be made emotional.
Say you want to attack somebody, because saying exactly the same thing every other candidate is saying is "drastic" - but strict non-interventionism isn't ...
And Russia ... and China ... and Mexico ... and the Blue States ...
Because in order for Rand to be "drastic" without being non-interventionist, he needs to go "all in" - and that means none of this namby-pamby "just ISIS and Iran" stuff ...
Last edited by Occam's Banana; 09-05-2015 at 04:17 AM.
The Bastiat Collection ˇ FREE PDF ˇ FREE EPUB ˇ PAPER Frédéric Bastiat (1801-1850)
- "When law and morality are in contradiction to each other, the citizen finds himself in the cruel alternative of either losing his moral sense, or of losing his respect for the law."
-- The Law (p. 54)- "Government is that great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else."
-- Government (p. 99)- "[W]ar is always begun in the interest of the few, and at the expense of the many."
-- Economic Sophisms - Second Series (p. 312)- "There are two principles that can never be reconciled - Liberty and Constraint."
-- Harmonies of Political Economy - Book One (p. 447)ˇ tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito ˇ
Sure. 'Candidate occupying basement in cooked establishment polls puts cart so far before the horse he's picking a running mate he'll never need. Must be telling us he's not enough all by himself.' That'll play well.
And who cares what winner takes all state he can win? Several of those won't be winner take all next year, because the candidate has to have a simple majority to get all the delegates, and with seventeen people in the race, that won't happen. Besides, unless the dozen stooges start dropping out quick, this is going to be a brokered convention; no one is getting the nomination on the first or second ballot.
It is easy for Trump and Carson. They get media 24/7. They have gotten media 24/7 every single blessed day for months. It's like doing the Tour de France on a motorcycle and not getting called a cheater. It's like allowing two of the contestants in a race up the stairs of the Gateway Arch to ride the elevator without getting disqualified.
And cooked polls like the ones you're advertising with this thread don't help. Do you really believe that Rand Paul doesn't have one single vote in either state? Did it occur to you to ask, say, Opal and Suzanimal for a second opinion on that?
But neither goes 'up and up and up'. Trump's ceiling is 30% of Republicans. He doesn't seem to be able to get one point more.
Oh, sure. That's the ticket. The Fed is why your paycheck keeps buying less every single day just as though you took a cut in pay, when the number has stayed the same. The Fed is what killed the whole middle class. Yet we should see if we can find anyone who is old enough to remember when banks paid interest on savings accounts, much less who cares about three percent.
Yeah, because Trump never talked down to anyone in his whole life. So that must be the crux of the whole thing.
He needs glossy cards with pictures of states he is beating Hillary in OH, PA, Iowa, CO, and NH. He needs to say he is number one with independents/youth in a general election and has the best average. That right there will double his numbers, he needs to talk big about running in a general election and bringing the qualities the other candidates have but being able to add more to beat the democrats. Say he can go more places. This needs to be printable with the polls having citations in tiny print so people can see he is legit.
They need to motivate volunteers and get them going to GOP meetings handing out flyers.
Last edited by Okaloosa; 09-05-2015 at 11:56 AM.
I agree. Civil liberties are important, but its not what voters are looking for at the moment. No one cares right now. Got to talk about what matters to most of the voters currently, even if the matter is set up by media and coincidence.
Its important to reach out to minorities, but not piss off that fragile base of gop voters that kinda like rand. Aside from potentiAlly rigged polls and some media bias; Ferguson, jesse jackson, confederate flag and etc is when rands numbers started falling.
It seems that when rand attacks someone in the debate, he usually dont get to say the last words. That is very damning. He attacks the two loud mouths, quick thinking, jerks that is christie and trump. i am sure christie and trump had rebuttals and insults rdy to use against rand. attacking jeb would be nice because jeb is kinda slow. jeb probably has something to rebuttal rand, but he would stumble it.
Anyways, he cant stay in the back of the pack forever. If there are similar poll conditions for later debates, he is fooked.
PS: cmon guys. Polls where rand is top 2 = Oh mai gawd. We doin so well! so much progress. Polls where rand does poorly = oh doesnt matter. Rigged. Biased. Too early. National polls. Pointless state.
the polls are not intentionally biased but they do over emphasize older voters who support Trump and Carson, whereas Rand is a candidate of the young voter. but zero is still zero, and even bias might only effect 5-10%
Trump's ceiling is over 30%, he is already polling 40% in Alabama
There's an old saying in Oklahoma: at least we're not Alabama!
There is, Rand Paul himself. Sorry for the blunt truth, but Rand has positions on important issues that are very far from the majority of Republicans, and that combined with attacking Donald Trump during the debate and afterward is why he is doing so bad.
And there you go. People know things can't continue as they are, and they don't want things to continue as they are, but just as soon as you promise something different--something definite which is different, unlike Obama--they freak.
Trump may not be credible as an outsider. But at least he has the courtesy to promise things will change without actually saying how.
I'm glad people were willing to talk about how well Paul did versus Christie during the debate by showing strength, then back up and say step it up when he's down in certain polls.
This thread is getting stupid now. Here is the historical polling for FL:
Look at the last 2 polls (the ones in the shaded area). Now count how many candidates gained since the Q poll 8/7-8/18. Rubio is not even competitive in his own state.
Last edited by CPUd; 09-05-2015 at 07:02 PM.
No one cares about Christie anymore. Hell, not even his fellow New Jerseyans care about him anymore. His approval ratings are so low that if he was up for re-election tomorrow, he'd be booted out.
Last edited by PaleoPaul; 09-05-2015 at 09:26 PM.
The only thing I can think is that Rand thinks he has a deal with McConnell to guarantee Senate votes on several high-profile pieces of legislation backed by Rand that will get him into the spotlight and show him to be a successful leader. That could help Rand rack up some numbers. If that's not in the works, or McConnell backtracks, it is going to be real hard for Rand to get some traction.
I mean at this point I don't believe there is a path, Rand's only chance was as an outsider and libertarian and he spent all this time coozying up to the establishment who are never going to support him. I wish Ron was younger and he could of run again.
End the MED not the FED. He is a Doctor. People would be very happy for their medical bills and insurance costs to drop 80%.
Medical Fraud and racketeering is 20% of the United states GDP right now. How does nobody care about this?!?!?
In New Zealand:
The Coastguard is a Charity
Air Traffic Control is a private company run on user fees
The DMV is a private non-profit
Rescue helicopters and ambulances are operated by charities and are plastered with corporate logos
The agriculture industry has zero subsidies
5% of the national vote, gets you 5 seats in Parliament
A tax return has 4 fields
Business licenses aren't a thing
Prostitution is legal
We have a constitutional right to refuse any type of medical care
"They aren't concerned about privacy issues when financials and jobs are perceivingly at stake."
So why would you think "fiscal conservatism" whatever that is, is somehow going to appeal to this group? "Hey we'll balance the budget by cutting Medicare." Which technically would be true but would go over like a lead balloon politically.
The bottom line is Rand is horribly positioned for this campaign. The leading candidate for the GOP nomination favors universal healthcare, increased defense spending and spending on building walls and deporting people. That's a lot of spending don't you think? Hasn't hurt him one bit. Rand, the "real conservative" is at zero percent in the polls. Real conservatism, fiscal or otherwise, is pretty much dead don't you think? And if so, Rand needs to start thinking about getting out and just focusing on the Senate seat until events or the political winds favor him at some point. He's lucky the Dems in Kentucky are more focused on state races than worrying about Rand's Senate campaign because they've pretty much let him get off so far without any credible opposition. He needs to take advantage of this and make his position in Kentucky unbeatable and then recharge his batteries for the future rather than try to prop up a Presidential campaign which is not going well.
Last edited by Badger Paul; 09-06-2015 at 09:37 AM.
how many get either free heath care, Obamacare or medicare or medicaid? or from their employer and therefore thought of as free?
this is why medical costs have risen. and few care
Neither Ron or Rand really had a chance. Rand screwed up and lost a good portion of Ron's base trying a risky ridgetop walk but in the end Rand could have been RP 2 clone and still not received all of Ron's miserable little slice of a base. 9 out of 10 republicans didn't vote for Ron and a good majority NEVER would have. Ron always had a very high "would never vote for" polling numbers. Trumps numbers prove it solidly. You tell me that those voters now sucking down preemptive war, torture, single payer, corporate bailouts. would have EVER voted for paul. I DON'T THINK SO.
War; everything in the world wrong, evil and immoral combined into one and multiplied by millions.
still, win enough delegates, and Rand could be VP to Trump or Kasich. Trump would deal with anyone to get the nomination.
Trump won't be in a position to deal by the time the VP talk becomes relevant. I doubt he even gets more than 50 delegates total.
He seems to have the same Teflon that Reagan had. I don't believe it either. but as of today its his to lose. no winner of both Iowa and NH has ever lost the nomination. and Trump is on target to win both
Rand needs to change his strategy.
First, he should announce plans to immediately deport all illegals in his first week. Then all remaining Mexicans the second week. It may be hard to tell if someone is Mexican, so he'll instruct police to just use go after anyone that sort of looks like one.
In week three he'll unilaterally end all entitlements. We'll soon find out who's rough enough and tough enough to be a real American.
Next, his plan for Iran: total nuclear annihilation. After that, confront the inevitable global thermonuclear war, and win. Assassinate Putin on one of his shirtless bear hunting expeditions, and then wipe Russia off the map, followed by China, Africa, and South America. Europe, Australia and Canada will agree to give up their sovereignty to the mighty America within 24 hours, or else they will all join their multicultural friends in the radioactive holocaust.
Next, with us as the only nation standing we'll wait a few years, then send out people to colonize the wasteland. Spreading American values far and wide. Any survivors that are found in bunkers will be captured and forced to fight for our amusement in gladiatorial battles to the death.
Paul will also reverse his stance on term limits, eliminating them entirely. The next order of business is to demolish the Capitol building, and replace it with a great golden throne for him to sit in. He will requisition a diamond studded crown emblazoned with the image of the bald eagle, and a golden staff inset with rubies and emerald trimming. From that high perch he can look out over the new world he's created and revel in it's mastery.
After Rand announces this, I expect his poll numbers will be cresting at around 80%. Trump that Trump!
Last edited by DevilsAdvocate; 09-05-2015 at 11:22 PM.
Sadly, the electorate is so stupid that I bet his poll numbers would soar if he said things like that.
Bachmann was also on target to win Iowa, and Rick Perry, and Herman Cain, Gingrich:
Ding, ding, ding...we have a winner.
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Are those in percent or did they just ask 94 people?
Positions are only part of the mix, and Trump is doing well for the most part without even specifying what he would do, how he would do it, or why we should trust his current views given his history. Rand is struggling because while his rhetorical approach opened a dialogue and reduced attacks on him, it did not change the framework on how those issues are approached by the mainstream. Indeed, Rand has not even tried to shake that framework, just finesse his way around it.
Trump has gotten an unfair amount of media coverage, to be sure, but he has also changed frameworks, be it on immigration, trade, resisting many forms of PC pressure and so forth. Despite using token hawkish rhetoric, he has said the key thing about Iraq---that the original invasion was a mistake, and that Bush Inc bears responsibility for it, not the Democrats---that changes the game, as it accepts the verdict of public opinion on that subject, and does not lock the GOP into a mindset of further global meddling going forward.
One reason why the conservative base has been de-energized and stayed home in recent Presidential cycles is that they perceive the only thing the party REALLY cares about or stands for at this point, is invading and bombing more countries, following the 2003 model. This perception is shared by independents, who have not been attracted to GOP contenders for the same reason. As I have said before: no Republican is going to win back the White House until they at least concede the Iraq war was wrong.
Rand holds that view and can still be that Republican, but he has to appear to challenge establishment frameworks, not rhetorically finesse or embrace them. He should triangulate the Trump phenomenon instead of attack it, and by doing so inherit its anti-establishment momentum. By doing so Rand would signal to the party base factions, as Trump has signaled by emphasizing cultural policy, that the GOP is not a foreign policy party, to the exclusion of (or caving on) everything else.
Last edited by Peace&Freedom; 09-06-2015 at 01:58 AM.
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