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Thread: New Quinnipiac Poll

  1. #1

    New Quinnipiac Poll

    Was channel surfing & caught a little bit of the Kelly File when this poll just popped up for Republican nominee preference:

    Trump 28%
    Carson 12%
    Bush 7
    Cruz 7
    Rubio 7
    Walker 6
    Kasich 5
    Fiorina 5
    Christie 4
    Huckabee 3
    PAUL 2%
    Santorum 1
    Perry 1
    Gilmore -
    Jindal -
    Pataki -
    Graham -
    Don't Know 11%

    August 20-25
    666 Republican voters
    +/- 3.8 Pts



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  3. #2
    Yeah that one's ugly. Might have been because he was in Haiti while everyone else was in Iowa eating deep fried whatevers for the press.

  4. #3
    Real Clear Politics has him now at 10th. Looking at the ideological breakdown Rand has really pissed some people off, but it doesn't look too much like Tea Party or Evangelicals.
    It might be time to focus on his message and leave Trump to the likes of Bush and Walker.
    I thought about panicking but then I thought no, let's not just yet.
    If you look at the "top tier" the politicians all took a notch down. Poll participants are sending a message. This isn't about Trump (he's just the loudest). This is about politicians and the political class .
    Rand...just stay on message.

  5. #4
    He'll be all right for the next debate, but he needs to be polling around 5% or higher in the next few national polls.

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    He'll be all right for the next debate, but he needs to be polling around 5% or higher in the next few national polls.
    Yeah, not a good one... but the last one was listed was at 6% so it can vary in any given poll.

    And for the CNN debate he's still in 8th place and will make it because they're using the average of polls going back to July 16th, the RCP average only uses the last 4.

    Right now for the debate it's still:

    7th - Huckabee 5.76%
    8th - Rand 4.46%
    9th - Kasich 3.76%
    10th - Christie 3.3%
    11th -Fiorina 2.76%

  7. #6
    This is what I have, I also included the CNN/ORC poll:

    Trump 22.6
    Bush 11.6
    Walker 10.6
    Carson 7.5
    Rubio 6.4
    Cruz 6.2
    Huckabee 5.9
    Paul 4.6
    Kasich 3.6
    Christie 3.3
    Fiorina 2.6
    Perry 1.9
    Santorum 1.3
    Jindal 1.2
    Graham 0.4

    from polls:
    Quinnipiac 8/20 - 8/25
    CNN/ORC 8/13 - 8/16
    FOX News 8/11 - 8/13
    Rasmussen 8/9 - 8/10
    FOX News 7/30 - 8/2
    Monmouth 7/30 - 8/2
    Bloomberg 7/30 - 8/2
    CBS News 7/29 - 8/2
    NBC/WSJ 7/26 - 7/30
    Quinnipiac 7/23 - 7/28
    Rasmussen 7/26 - 7/27
    CNN/ORC 7/22 - 7/25
    PPP (D) 7/20 - 7/21
    ABC/Wash Post 7/16 - 7/19
    Last edited by CPUd; 08-27-2015 at 08:01 PM.

  8. #7
    The polls won't make any sense until Trump inevitably implodes and ends.

    Not that I think Rand is going to win, but all this drama with that jackass Trump has to be over before the actual race starts.

    Neither Trump nor Carson will win the primary nor be potus. So spread that 40% around and see what happens.

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    This is what I have, I also included the CNN/ORC poll:

    Trump 22.6
    Bush 11.6
    Walker 10.6
    Carson 7.5
    Rubio 6.4
    Cruz 6.2
    Huckabee 5.9
    Paul 4.6
    Kasich 3.6
    Christie 3.3
    Fiorina 2.6
    Perry 1.9
    Santorum 1.3
    Jindal 1.2
    Graham 0.4

    from polls:
    Quinnipiac 8/20 - 8/25
    CNN/ORC 8/13 - 8/16
    FOX News 8/11 - 8/13
    Rasmussen 8/9 - 8/10
    FOX News 7/30 - 8/2
    Monmouth 7/30 - 8/2
    Bloomberg 7/30 - 8/2
    CBS News 7/29 - 8/2
    NBC/WSJ 7/26 - 7/30
    Quinnipiac 7/23 - 7/28
    Rasmussen 7/26 - 7/27
    CNN/ORC 7/22 - 7/25
    PPP (D) 7/20 - 7/21
    ABC/Wash Post 7/16 - 7/19
    I'm not sure if they will count multiple polls from the same polling company. RCP only includes the most recent one for each polling company even if older ones are still within the overall date range, CNN might do the same.
    Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. -Douglas Hofstadter

    Life, Liberty, Logic



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Crashland View Post
    I'm not sure if they will count multiple polls from the same polling company. RCP only includes the most recent one for each polling company even if older ones are still within the overall date range, CNN might do the same.
    That case would look more like:

    Trump 22.7
    Bush 11.2
    Walker 10.3
    Carson 8.3
    Rubio 6.7
    Cruz 6.2
    Huckabee 5.9
    Paul 4.4
    Kasich 3.4
    Christie 3.4
    Fiorina 3.1
    Perry 1.9
    Santorum 1.1
    Jindal 1.0
    Graham 0.3


    from polls:
    Quinnipiac 8/20 - 8/25
    CNN/ORC 8/13 - 8/16
    FOX News 8/11 - 8/13
    Rasmussen 8/9 - 8/10
    Monmouth 7/30 - 8/2
    Bloomberg 7/30 - 8/2
    CBS News 7/29 - 8/2
    NBC/WSJ 7/26 - 7/30
    PPP (D) 7/20 - 7/21
    ABC/Wash Post 7/16 - 7/19

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    This is what I have, I also included the CNN/ORC poll:
    Yeah, I wasn't sure with that one because it was taken starting the 16th, but wasn't released by the 16th. But either way it shows that Rand is pretty solidly in the debate, even if they somehow changed it to 8.

    Quote Originally Posted by Crashland View Post
    I'm not sure if they will count multiple polls from the same polling company. RCP only includes the most recent one for each polling company even if older ones are still within the overall date range, CNN might do the same.
    Hmm, I don't know. I haven't seen that brought up, but in the debate criteria from CNN it says all polls...

    The first 10 candidates - ranked from highest to lowest in polling order from an average of all qualifying polls released between July 16th and September 10...
    And under the qualifying polls section it just says they will only use ones sponsored by: and then lists the major sources. It doesn't specify only one from each.

    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/im....criteria1.pdf

    I'm not sure if that would really change it much anyway. When I searched for that document the article that linked to it was about Fiorina's campaign knowing that even though she's come up a bit in recent polling she will miss the debate again because of the large sample size.

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by 69360 View Post
    The polls won't make any sense until Trump inevitably implodes and ends.

    Not that I think Rand is going to win, but all this drama with that jackass Trump has to be over before the actual race starts.

    Neither Trump nor Carson will win the primary nor be potus. So spread that 40% around and see what happens.
    Cruz is hitching his wagon to Trump...first Rand now Trump.
    If this election is about people who will say "whatever is on their mind", then I think it's about time for Ron Paul.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by PCKY View Post
    Cruz is hitching his wagon to Trump...first Rand now Trump.
    If this election is about people who will say "whatever is on their mind", then I think it's about time for Ron Paul.
    Seriously. Rand always has that "biting my tongue" face on. I see it in picture after picture. (if you're not sure what the face I mean is, scroll to the top of the web page - even the branding on this very site has it)

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by thoughtomator View Post
    Seriously. Rand always has that "biting my tongue" face on. I see it in picture after picture. (if you're not sure what the face I mean is, scroll to the top of the web page - even the branding on this very site has it)
    Ron Paul got vilified by the MSM for telling it like it is...now Trump gets beatitude. So let Ron Paul get out there and let fly...could it hurt at this point?

  16. #14
    Does anyone seriously believe Carson could be polling 2nd? I refuse to believe it.

  17. #15
    Jan2017
    Member

    Quote Originally Posted by 69360 View Post
    The polls won't make any sense until Trump inevitably implodes and ends.

    Not that I think Rand is going to win, but all this drama with that jackass Trump has to be over before the actual race starts.

    Neither Trump nor Carson will win the primary nor be potus. So spread that 40% around and see what happens.
    Also look at question two - who would you NOT ever no way vote for - Rand gets numbers in the teens across the groups it is broken down under -
    but Trump and Bush score very high 20,25 % and Trump hits 32 % - would never vote for.

    That is bad. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-e...ReleaseID=2274

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by rich34 View Post
    Does anyone seriously believe Carson could be polling 2nd? I refuse to believe it.
    Yeah, even if the polls are telling the truth about what people answer I just don't think they mean too much at this point. There's so much time to change, but also because voting for someone in a poll is a lot different than actually voting for them in an election.

    I don't believe that Deez Nuts would actually get 9% of the vote in the election. People running real campaigns as a third party with volunteers and money wish they could get 9%.

    That poll shows Trump getting 24% if he ran third party. Trump has a chance to do better than most have, but would he really get 24% in a actual vote - even if it were held now? I don't see it.

    In a poll you they come to you and ask for your answer, and you give one even if you're only leaning that way. Voting takes some effort.

    It's fun and easy to answer Deez Nuts when faced with two choices you don't like, but when it comes down to it those 9% would either choose a side or stay home.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jan2017 View Post
    Also look at question two - who would you NOT ever no way vote for - Rand gets numbers in the teens across the groups it is broken down under -
    but Trump and Bush score very high 20,25 % and Trump hits 32 % - would never vote for.

    That is bad. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-e...ReleaseID=2274
    Yeah, every one I've looked at has Trump leading the "would never vote for" category. He also by far has the lowest "don't know enough about" numbers at 9%. So others have more room to grow and he kind of has a ceiling set.

    Also, the top 5 answers...lol:

    20. What is the first word that comes to mind when you think of Donald Trump? (Numbers are not percentages. Figures show the number of times each response was given. This table reports only words that were mentioned at least five times.)

    Tot

    arrogant - 58
    blowhard - 38
    idiot - 35
    businessman - 34
    clown - 34
    Thought this one was interesting too, and may be an area to bring up in the future.




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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by mello View Post
    Was channel surfing & caught a little bit of the Kelly File when this poll just popped up for Republican nominee preference:

    Trump 28%
    Carson 12%
    Bush 7
    Cruz 7
    Rubio 7
    Walker 6
    Kasich 5
    Fiorina 5
    Christie 4
    Huckabee 3
    PAUL 2%
    Santorum 1
    Perry 1
    Gilmore -
    Jindal -
    Pataki -
    Graham -
    Don't Know 11%

    August 20-25
    666 Republican voters
    +/- 3.8 Pts
    Lol 666 republicans.

  21. #18
    Kasich is surging, doing well in NH particularly

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by randomname View Post
    Kasich is surging, doing well in NH particularly
    Kasich has been running ads there.

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by rich34 View Post
    Does anyone seriously believe Carson could be polling 2nd? I refuse to believe it.
    Why is that hard to believe? He presented himself very well at the debate. Seemed intelligent, thoughtful, quiet, and respectful. Anti-Establishment voters put off by Trump's bravado would naturally gravitate towards Carson. I think if Trump wins, he'll select Carson as VP because he balances off Trump's jerkishness.

    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    Kasich has been running ads there.
    Kasich is going all in on New Hampshire. Putting all his money and time there in the hope that win or close second leads to an explosion of media coverage.
    Last edited by RonPaulMall; 08-28-2015 at 10:54 AM.

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by PCKY View Post
    Ron Paul got vilified by the MSM for telling it like it is...now Trump gets beatitude. So let Ron Paul get out there and let fly...could it hurt at this point?
    I agree. Ron can't hurt Rand at this point, it couldn't get any worse. So might as well roll out Ron on the trail. It can only help now.

    Quote Originally Posted by rich34 View Post
    Does anyone seriously believe Carson could be polling 2nd? I refuse to believe it.
    I do, this happens every GOP primary. Last time it was Bachmann, Perry, Cain then Santorum all polling that well when none had a legitimate chance to be potus. Why not Carson too? He won't be potus but might sell his brand, some books and rack up speaking fees.

  25. #22
    The people jumping to Carson are the same ones who were backing Walker and Bush until they actually watched them speak at the debate,

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    The people jumping to Carson are the same ones who were backing Walker and Bush until they actually watched them speak at the debate,
    Walker's dud of a performance has definitely been huge for Carson. He really laid an egg.

  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by 69360 View Post
    The polls won't make any sense until Trump inevitably implodes and ends.

    Not that I think Rand is going to win, but all this drama with that jackass Trump has to be over before the actual race starts.

    Neither Trump nor Carson will win the primary nor be potus. So spread that 40% around and see what happens.
    Hasn't Trump been imploding this whole time? It seems to be what his supporters like.




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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by randomname View Post
    Kasich is surging, doing well in NH particularly
    I think it's mostly because of the debate. He was the audience favorite by far. The home field advantage in the first debate really helped him.


  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by rich34 View Post
    Does anyone seriously believe Carson could be polling 2nd? I refuse to believe it.
    Yes, several relatives and friends support him.

    He's the new 999 candidate until he's not...
    If Rand does not win the Republican nomination, he should buck the controlled two party system and run as an Independent for President in 2016 and give Americans a real option to vote for.

    We are all born libertarians then something goes really wrong. Despite this truth, most people are still libertarians yet not know it.

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Liberty74 View Post
    Yes, several relatives and friends support him.

    He's the new 999 candidate until he's not...
    Isn't that a bit racist?


  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy View Post
    Isn't that a bit racist?
    Only if you view it as so.
    The Voluntary Exchange Podcast

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    "The use of force to impose morality is itself immoral, and generosity with others' money is still theft"

    "My name is George. I'm unemployed and live with my parents."

  33. #29
    the most important thing about the poll is the Carly bubble has burst. next to burst will be Carson.

  34. #30
    CNN might be the only one that knocks Rand off stage. Fox News likes Rand because he's the only one attacking Trump. MSNBC will keep him in the debates because Chris Mathews seriously likes Rand. When it comes down to it, it's really the RNC that will decide, and they need Rand and they know it.
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    http://www.SanityCheckRadioShow.com

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