CNN poll: Rand at 5% in Iowa, tied with Bush and Rubio

[Xenliad]

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump has a significant lead in the race to win over likely Iowa caucus-goers, according to the first CNN/ORC poll in the state this cycle.

Trump tops the field with 22% and is the candidate seen as best able to handle top issues including the economy, illegal immigration and terrorism. He's most cited as the one with the best chance of winning the general election, and, by a wide margin, as the candidate most likely to change the way things work in Washington.

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson follows Trump in overall preference with 14%, bumping Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who had held the top spot in most recent public polling in Iowa, down to third place with 9%. Walker is nearly even with a slew of other candidates.

Previous public polls had found Carson with around 10% support, but most were released before last week's debate. A Suffolk University poll of Iowa Republicans released Tuesday found Carson's closing remarks to be the most memorable moment for those who watched the prime time debate.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz follows the top three at 8%, with businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee both at 7%. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is tied at 5% with senators Rand Paul and Marco Rubio. The rest of the field stands at 3% or less.

Two-thirds of Iowa Republicans who are likely to attend the caucus say they're still trying to decide whom to support. Among the 34% who say they have made up their mind or are leading [sic] toward a candidate, Trump's lead grows, and the top of the field shifts. Among that group, 33% back Trump, 14% Carson, 11% Fiorina, and 9% each back Paul and Walker. Cruz follows at 7%, and all others have less than 5% support.

But Trump's advantages are not universal. He faces a large gender gap: While holding a 15-point lead over his nearest competitor among men (27% Trump to 12% Walker, Carson at 10%), he trails among women (20% back Carson, 15% Trump, and 11% support Fiorina). He runs behind Carson and about even with Walker and Cruz among those who describe themselves as "very conservative" (25% Carson, 15% each Cruz and Walker, 12% Trump), and he runs even with Carson among evangelical Christians (18% each Trump and Carson, 12% Cruz, 11% Huckabee, 10% Walker).

Both evangelical Christians and those who call themselves very conservative make up a substantial share of Iowa caucus-goers. According to entrance polls conducted for CNN, half of caucus attendees considered themselves "very conservative" in 2012, while born-again Christians were 57% of participants. Forty-three percent of 2012 Republican caucus attendees were women.

Trump's support in Iowa rests on perceptions that he would do the best job handling several top issues and that he is most electable. He tops the list by wide margins when GOP caucus-goers are asked which candidate they trust most to handle the economy, illegal immigration and terrorism. And Trump holds his biggest advantage as the candidate who "is most likely to change the way things work in Washington," 44% say Trump can do that, no other candidate hits double-digits.

But while Trump falters somewhat on representing the values of Republicans, no clear leader emerges on that question, with nine candidates at 5% or higher: 14% Carson, 12% Trump, 11% Huckabee, 10% Cruz, 9% Walker, 6% each Bush and Paul, and 5% each Fiorina and Jindal. And he falls well below the lead when voters are asked which candidate would best handle abortion; 17% each say Carson and Huckabee would be best on that score, 7% each choose Bush and Trump, 6% each Cruz, Paul and Walker, and Rubio stands at 5%.

The reason behind Walker's tumble from the top of the pack in Iowa may be in those issue questions: Although 11% see him as the most electable in the field, he hasn't impressed on the issues. Walker falls below 10% on each issue tested, with his best showing the 8% who think he would best handle the economy.

When asked to name the issue that will be most important in deciding which candidate to support for president next year, Iowa Republicans likely to attend the presidential caucus most frequently cite an economic issue, with 33% naming an economy-related concern, 20% a foreign policy issue, 14% immigration, 8% social issues, and 6% government spending, taxes or the national debt. Among those who call the economy their top concern, 39% say they most trust Trump to handle it, 12% Fiorina, and 11% Walker. And those who cite a foreign policy concern also put Trump atop their list of trusted candidates for handling terrorism, but by a smaller margin: 17% trust Trump, 10% Cruz, 9% Paul.

The poll was conducted August 7-11 among a statewide sample of 2,014 Iowa adults, 544 of whom were identified as likely Republican caucusgoers based on questions about whether they are registered to vote, likelihood of voting, past voting behavior and interest in the campaign. The margin of sampling error for results among the sample of likely Republican caucus attendees is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politi...-poll-cnn-orc/

[eleganz]

Only 2% thinks Rand can win the general election. As long as Rand can get the message out there that he is the best candidate to beat Hillary, he can do very well in Iowa. A large percentage of the voters' ultimate decision lies with electability (or perception of).

[CPUd]

Check page 7, their most important issue they say will be the economy.

Also, Walker appears to be knocked off his pedestal for the moment.

[Jackie Moon]

At least 85% still up for grabs... not including some in the 15% that will still change their mind or have their candidate drop out.

[P3ter_Griffin]

First one to post age demographic gets a +rep

Some of the questions, when broken down to age demographics, had n/a for >49.. Wondering if this was a 50+ poll?

[Chieppa1]

He's doing fine. Iowa is a state you have to be on the ground in. And Trump attacking Paul just gives Rand the opportunity to discuss himself.

[squirl22]

Very good news for Paul; inspite of the media and establishment attempts to drive him out of the race, he remains competitive.

[squirl22]

First one to post age demographic gets a +rep

This poll was not based on demographics; it is Republican likely caucus goers, which means older people. That's one of the problems with Rand's strategy; most young people are not registered Republicans or likely caucus goers. He will need to do some heavy work to get those kids to register and attend!

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politi...ata/index.html

[The Northbreather]

This poll was not based on demographics; it is Republican likely caucus goers, which means older people. That's one of the problems with Rand's strategy; most young people are not registered Republicans or likely caucus goers. He will need to do some heavy work to get those kids to register

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politi...ata/index.html

When I registered republican I felt I was selling my soul but Ron had me ready to fight.

[Jan2017]

Just start passing out copies of Rand at his eloquent best . . .

[rich34]

Rand will be at or more than 15% once the demograpics are corrected and cell phones are added. This probably won't occur until at least the beginning of December which makes getting a Dec. 16th money bomb started all the more important.

[MarcusI]

Its on page 10. Seems they had too less of a sample to dare to publish numbers for age segment 18-34, 35-49 - but they showed numbers for below 50 and above 50:

Under 50: Paul 7% (tied for 3rd)
50 and above: Paul 2%

Again this is (proportionally) the biggest difference all GOP candidates show.

Go Rand!

[kbs021]

Glad to see you guys repeating my thoughts. MANY of the early state polls are like this. They are drastically undercutting younger voters as well as the obvious first-time voter. Rand should be going after that demographic and I believe that is where the digital media campaign is going to surprise some people. Please start calling from home in Iowa if you haven't! You can win some nice prize shirts by doing so as well!

[Uriah]

Glad to see you guys repeating my thoughts. MANY of the early state polls are like this. They are drastically undercutting younger voters as well as the obvious first-time voter. Rand should be going after that demographic and I believe that is where the digital media campaign is going to surprise some people. Please start calling from home in Iowa if you haven't! You can win some nice prize shirts by doing so as well!

Both groups which make up a small portion of the voters. Those groups combined might make up 20% of caucus goers in Iowa. Rand won't get them all but if he took half like his father took half of independents at the Iowa caucus then he'll be sitting at 10%. I've thought for along time that Rand is around 10% here in Iowa. If he does well enough with typical caucus goers then independents, young voters, and first time caucus goers can push him over the top. As these polls show, which are still really early, he doesn't have the support yet to win Iowa.

[acptulsa]

Only 2% thinks Rand can win the general election. As long as Rand can get the message out there that he is the best candidate to beat Hillary, he can do very well in Iowa. A large percentage of the voters' ultimate decision lies with electability (or perception of).

This. If you want proof Republicans are delusional, here it is:

[Trump]'s most cited as the one with the best chance of winning the general election

They love to fool themselves into believing the one who throws them the most red meat is the one every American will like. And Fox loves to help. If we don't disabuse Republicans of this silly-assed notion, not only will we lose, but Republicans will never win the White House again.

[jkob]

at least we can be glad the establishment candidates aren't on top

Rand could of been in a lot better shape if he had a coherent message instead of trying to please everyone.

[Warrior_of_Freedom]

That's like being tied with a used condom and a bloody tampon

[Feelgood]

Very good news for Paul; inspite of the media and establishment attempts to drive him out of the race, he remains competitive.

LOL

I am actually amazed how delusional the members of this forum are each election cycle. It is kind of sad actually. The polls have Rand WAYYYYYY down now and continuing to drop. I would not doubt if they change the rules for the debate to only have the opt 8 in the next debate, to help narrow the field a bit and start to weed out. If that is the case, Rand will probably not be on that stage. At best now, his positioning on the stage will have him on the far left or right.

Bottom line, like it or not, Trump has truly taken the wind out of the sails for Rand Paul. Go ahead and preach how the polls are skewed, or incorrect, or can't possibly be accurate. Thing is the polls were pretty much spot on for Ron when he ran. It may suck to accept this, but unless things take a drastic 180 degree change, Rand is pretty much done. Even Sean Hannity is begging him to come on his show anymore.

I really hate the stupidity of the American people.

[kahless]

LOL

I am actually amazed how delusional the members of this forum are each election cycle. It is kind of sad actually. The polls have Rand WAYYYYYY down now and continuing to drop. I would not doubt if they change the rules for the debate to only have the opt 8 in the next debate, to help narrow the field a bit and start to weed out. If that is the case, Rand will probably not be on that stage. At best now, his positioning on the stage will have him on the far left or right.

Bottom line, like it or not, Trump has truly taken the wind out of the sails for Rand Paul. Go ahead and preach how the polls are skewed, or incorrect, or can't possibly be accurate. Thing is the polls were pretty much spot on for Ron when he ran. It may suck to accept this, but unless things take a drastic 180 degree change, Rand is pretty much done. Even Sean Hannity is begging him to come on his show anymore.

I really hate the stupidity of the American people.

^Will be called a paid Trump supporter and racist in 3,2,1.

Although true anything can happen between now and December.

[SilentBull]

This poll was not based on demographics; it is Republican likely caucus goers, which means older people. That's one of the problems with Rand's strategy; most young people are not registered Republicans or likely caucus goers. He will need to do some heavy work to get those kids to register and attend!

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politi...ata/index.html

Yeah, I wish he was reaching out to the older voters as well. This is one area a PAC could help with, since Rand isn't focusing on them at all.

[alucard13mm]

Rand should say hes the only candidate who has a plan to save their precious socisl security and medicare and so our children and grandchildren doesnt have to pay for it with literally their lives.

[kbs021]

Not sure about the amount of independents included in the poll either.. Last time around 25 percent of the vote were independent. Rand took about half of those votes as well.

[MarcusI]

LOL

I am actually amazed how delusional the members of this forum are each election cycle. It is kind of sad actually. The polls have Rand WAYYYYYY down now and continuing to drop.

Actually that poll was much better than the last three polls in Iowa. Take a deep breath.

[Jan2017]

LOL

Rand will probably not be on that stage. . . .

Rand will easily be on the main stage in Simi Valley at the CNN/Reagan Foundation debate on September 16.

Too much Cali support for Rand to miss this . . .

[Feelgood]

^Will be called a paid Trump supporter and racist in 3,2,1.

Although true anything can happen between now and December.

I hope not! Can't stand Trump. I would love to see POTUS Rand Paul, but reality tends to kick you in the nuts. I just think last 2 elections cycles, so many here got bent out of shape about how they thought the polls were skewed and could not possibly be accurate. In the end they turned out to be pretty spot on. So when I see Rand taking a nose dive in the polls, it tends to worry me a bit.

[CPUd]

I hope not! Can't stand Trump. I would love to see POTUS Rand Paul, but reality tends to kick you in the nuts. I just think last 2 elections cycles, so many here got bent out of shape about how they thought the polls were skewed and could not possibly be accurate. In the end they turned out to be pretty spot on. So when I see Rand taking a nose dive in the polls, it tends to worry me a bit.

The only real nose dive in Iowa is Walker, another week or so, may be Bush, too:

[MarcusI]

I just think last 2 elections cycles, so many here got bent out of shape about how they thought the polls were skewed and could not possibly be accurate. In the end they turned out to be pretty spot on.

Well in general I tend to think the same, but its damn early still, nothing lost. From May to End July 2012 Ron Paul polled between 3 and 8% in Iowa, only in August numbers got up, Bachmann won that earlier polls by far. And the field wasnt as big by far (basically 6-7 candidates above or at 1%).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...mary-1588.html

(And some polls are huge outliers, like Insider Advantage poll 18 Dec 2012 = Santorum 3%, result 2 weeks (!) later 24.6%. RCP average was 16.3 at the caucus day)

But yes, polls should start to rise now, slowly but steady, in order to make Rand a viable candidate.

Thing is, Rand will lose some "hardcore" libertarians and maybe some youth voters (not to any other candidate, but to nonvoters), but on the other hands it will be easier to motivate average GOP caucus-goers to vote for Rand - like in his senate run.

[RDM]

The Rand Paul campaign needs to run one simple ad in Iowa with this simple message.

Donald Trump: Reagan Was A Con Man Who Couldn’t ‘Deliver The Goods’

In his bestselling book, Art of the Deal, published at the conclusion of the Reagan presidency, Trump cited Reagan as an example of someone who could “con people” but couldn’t “deliver the goods.” Trump said Reagan was “so smooth” that he “won over the American people.” But at the conclusion of his presidency, “people are beginning to question whether there is anything beneath that smile,” Trump writes. Above, is a page 60 from Art of the Deal.

Then Rand needs to say at the end, his FP is modeled after Ronald Reagan.

[Peace&Freedom]

Rand should work whatever early voting system there is in Iowa and other initial primary states to the max, to secure the absentee votes of younger supporters, since we know from previous cycles that their turn out for the actual primary or caucus will only be about 12%.

[randomname]

so now that Bush and Rubio are tied with Rand any time a pundit mentions their name they'll make sure to add their poll numbers are floundering, like with Rand, "who is struggling in the polls"?