Excellent .I am cashing the rest out middle of next month , I hope for a 18200 Dow.
Gold is starting to look steady @ 1234 .Originally Posted by ProIndividual
Does this mean the rate hike is back on for March?
I'd say it'll happen no matter what.
My guess is about a 1% chance for March.
I don't think they will raise rates in March. Unemployment is where they like it and new jobless claims continue to fall but the energy sector uncertainty may have them put off the next raise. There was speculation that the Fed would probably raise rates four times this year (which would be every three months) but I have said probably two or three. Energy has stabilized so if they don't raise rates at the March meeting they still could at the next meeting in April if nothing negative pops up. They (the Open Market Committee) do not meet in May, August, and October.
I think gold hits 1250 today .
Corporate stock buybacks coming to an end.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/b...110000062.html
Since the beginning of the post-crisis bull-market run, the biggest buyer of equities hasn't been retail investors or institutions but companies themselves.
Companies have been supporting the stock market through buybacks for years.
But according to some analysts, the era of buybacks may be coming to a close.
And this could be terrible news for the stock market.
Companies have been their own best friends
According to a note from analysts at HSBC, buybacks have been the source of most of the demand for stocks since 2009.
The note said that for each of the past two years, companies in the S&P 500 have bought back nearly $500 billion of their own stock and a total of $2.1 trillion since 2010.
This huge amount of buying has been a massive source of upside for the stock market, said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.
"There's no question that by far corporate buyback have been the source of most of the buying in the stock market," Sonders told Business Insider on Wednesday. "On a cumulative basis there has not been a dollar added to the US stock market since the end of the financial crisis by retail investors and pension funds."
more at link
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow...ear-2016-03-11''
Dow breaks above bullish chart level first time this year
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday above a key chart level for the first time this year, which many technical analysts might view as an early sign suggesting the stock market’s downtrend could be over.
The Dow DJIA, +1.28% rose 218.18 points, or 1.3%, to 17,213.31, to close above the widely watched 200-day moving average line, which currently extends to 17,153.23, according to FactSet. That marks the first close above the line since Dec. 30. See Market Snapshot.
The S&P 500 index SPX, +1.64% used a final-hour rally to join the Dow industrials by closing at 2,022.19, which was above its 200-day moving average of 2,019.92, also for the first time this year.
Many technical analysts see the 200-day moving average as a dividing line between longer-term uptrends and downtrends. For the major market indexes, many use it as a way to gauge the health of the broader market.
This was the first year the Dow didn’t spend time above its 200-day moving average on the first trading session since 2009, and only the third time -- 2008 and 2003 were the others -- in the past 25 years.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/17/inve...dow-jones-oil/
Dow turns positive for year: Erases 2,000-point plunge
The Dow turned positive for the year on Thursday, erasing a scary start to the year that at one point had the index down as much as 1,974 points in just the first three weeks of 2016.
The remarkable rebound has been driven by a spike in oil prices and fading fears of a possible recession in the U.S. Oil has returned to $40 a barrel and the U.S. economy continues to grow, despite the global slowdown.
But just a few weeks ago the markets were in full meltdown mode, with many predicting the bull market was on its death bed.
"That marked the zenith of panic. The market traded to extremely oversold conditions," said Peter Kenny, an independent market strategist. "Since the lows we've seen the market rally in stealth mode. Those who panicked got punished."
Stocks received a boost this week from the Federal Reserve, which slashed its plans to raise interest rates amid the global market turmoil. The Dow jumped 155 points on Thursday following a modest gain the day before.
Volatility, a hallmark of the first six weeks of the year, has nearly vanished. The closely-watched VIX volatility index has plunged 56% from its February peak. Likewise, CNNMoney's Fear & Greed Index, which uses various market gauges to measure trading sentiment, is now flashing "extreme greed." Just a few weeks ago it was firmly in "extreme fear" mode.
"Recession fears are in the rear view mirror," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. "Interest rates are low, inflation isn't a problem, the labor market is in better shape and moderate GDP growth is likely."
Rut roh! CNBC pulled Peter Schiff back out for their Fast Money broadcast today at 5:10pm ET. I haven't seen him on CNBC in a long time but we all know what his 2007/08 appearances meant!
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
http://www.cnbc.com/peter-schiff/
Looks like he's on pretty much monthly.
Looks like they have him on more than I thought (though some of those links are written, not video) but yesterday's was in studio and very reminiscent of the 07 appearances that he became famous for.
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
As of today , for the first time in my life , I am 100 percent cashed out of the market .Tomorrow starts my third week of retirement and my second day of my once a week part time job of 5 hours per day . I feel great
Congratulations!
Watch the yen...if yen strengthening continues, stocks heading back down in a big way. My bet is stocks heading back down.
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
When is that not your bet?
Kinda like me saying things are going to crash. But if I do- look out!!!!
On the other hand- http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/07/us-markets.html
Where is that PPT when you need them?Dow closes down triple digits as oil falls, yen climbs
U.S. stocks closed about 1 percent lower or more Thursday, with financials leading declines. Continued strength in the yen against the dollar renewed concerns about global growth and the effectiveness of central bank policy.
The major averages ended off session lows but the S&P 500 still closed more than 1 percent lower to erase year-to-date gains. The Dow Jones industrial average closed about 174 points lower after earlier falling 231 points, with Goldman Sachs contributing the most to declines.
The Japanese yen was near 108.4 yen against the U.S. dollar around the stock market close after earlier trading near 107.7, a fresh high against the greenback going back to October 2014.
Last edited by Zippyjuan; 04-07-2016 at 08:21 PM.
Compared to the dollar unit, that's always my bet. Funny that the stock market always steals wealth no matter whether it's going up or down.
Up? Dollar unit worth less. Down? Dollar units put into a stock account go bye-bye. Imaginary money always loses "value" no matter what because faith is lost in one way or another.
What say you?
And watch the yen....
On Wall St at 3pm, apparently.
What's Deutsche Bank's stock price today compared to when I said it was being set up as next Lehman and to short it? What was the price then? Hmm....
Last edited by devil21; 04-08-2016 at 01:50 AM.
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
appropriate time for a bump, no?
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
It is a zero sum game. Only the bankers are winning a rigged game. Until sound money's adopted, there can't be real prosperity.
I think the Brexit is a non event for US stocks. My guess is stocks will rebound when everyone realizes this means the Fed has another excuse not to raise rates.
In my opinion the Big Event is going to be a reversal from the Fed. Lowering rates and more QE.
I'm making so much money today.
PM or gov bonds?
-Major General Smedley Butler, USMC,There are only two things we should fight for. One is the defense of our homes and the other is the Bill of Rights. War for any other reason is simply a racket.
Two-Time Congressional Medal of Honor Winner
Author of, War is a Racket!
- Diogenes of SinopeIt is not that I am mad, it is only that my head is different from yours.
Meh.... stocks are only down 500... basically at May's levels... I'll get excited when it's down 1500
-Major General Smedley Butler, USMC,There are only two things we should fight for. One is the defense of our homes and the other is the Bill of Rights. War for any other reason is simply a racket.
Two-Time Congressional Medal of Honor Winner
Author of, War is a Racket!
- Diogenes of SinopeIt is not that I am mad, it is only that my head is different from yours.
Both, plus doubling down on stocks before they rebound. Seems an overreaction.
BTFD BEEEYACHES
-Major General Smedley Butler, USMC,There are only two things we should fight for. One is the defense of our homes and the other is the Bill of Rights. War for any other reason is simply a racket.
Two-Time Congressional Medal of Honor Winner
Author of, War is a Racket!
- Diogenes of SinopeIt is not that I am mad, it is only that my head is different from yours.
Indeed, even though mysteriously that term is only used for PMs. Same concepts apply.
There always is an over-reaction. Nothing has actually changed yet. The response is over the uncertainty of the situation. Good time to be buying. The sell-off is just a temporary reaction. Dow is still almost 2000 points above its 52 week low (February). Dow opened with a big drop but didn't continue to fall during the day. With an hour to go, it is about the same as it was an hour after open.
Last edited by Zippyjuan; 06-24-2016 at 01:14 PM.
Well duh - sell on rumor, buy on news. That's how it works.
But it closed up ahead of the vote in anticipation of a positive remain vote. This is just a small correction. 2-3% is not the end of the world. 2007 - 2008 = we lost 50%. And even then, the only thing that was required in order not to take a loss was to sit tight.
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