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Thread: DJIA, NYSE, S&P = CRASH!!!

  1. #1

    DJIA, NYSE, S&P = CRASH!!!

    GTFO of Stock Market








    Last edited by presence; 08-04-2015 at 10:40 PM.

    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...




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  3. #2
    What's that big red line?

    It would detract from the debate....planned parenthood...general theft and coruption by our government
    "Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it; no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it."
    James Madison

    "It does not take a majority to prevail ... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men." - Samuel Adams



    Μολὼν λάβε
    Dum Spiro, Pugno
    Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by puppetmaster View Post
    What's that big red line?

    Impending doom.

    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...


  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by presence View Post
    Impending doom.
    Did you just discover technical analysis ? You sound like a neophyte.

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    Did you just discover technical analysis ? You sound like a neophyte.
    LOL hardly






    h/t to our new RPF member bullhammer

    Strong Buy

    SPXU





    If you want to make money in the bear market instead of just hedge to fiat:


    STRONG BUY


    SPXU


    This is a "inverse" ETF of the S&P 500. When the S&P goes up... it goes down and vice versa.



    The ETF is leveraged so share value will go 10X when the S&P drops 20% or more.



    Last 32.55


    I expect a valuation of 200+ by January. When it breaks up it will happen almost instantly.


    Its traded on NYSE as "ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500"




    I give it a MOON^3 rating.

    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...


  7. #6
    #1 During one recent interview, Doug Casey stated that we are heading for “a catastrophe of historic proportions”
    “With these stupid governments printing trillions and trillions of new currency units,” says investor Doug Casey, “it’s building up to a catastrophe of historic proportions.”
    Doug Casey, a wildly successful investor who’s the head of the outfit Casey Research, is predicting doom and gloom for the global economy.
    “I wouldn’t keep significant capital in banks,” he toldReason magazine Editor-in-Chief Matt Welch. “Most of the banks in the world are bankrupt.”
    #2 Bill Fleckenstein is warning that U.S. markets could be headed for calamity in the coming months
    Noted short seller Bill Fleckenstein, who correctly predicted the financial crisis in 2007, says he is one step closer to opening up a short-focused fund for the first time since 2009. In the meantime, Fleckenstein says the entire market could be heading for calamity in the coming months.
    The market is uniquely crash-prone,” Fleckenstein told CNBC’s “Fast Money” this week. “I think the market is very brittle because of high-frequency trading, ETFs, a lot of momentum investors. I don’t think there’s going to be any painless back door.”
    #3 Richard Russell believes that the bear market that is coming “will tear apart the current economic system”
    From my standpoint, this is the strangest period that I have gone through since the 1940s. The Industrials are declining faster than the Transports. If this continues, at some point the Industrials will touch the Transports. When that happens, I believe a bear market will be signaled, as both Industrials and Transports accelerate on the downside.
    I expect a brief period of higher prices which will draw in the amateurish retail public. This brief breather will be followed by an historic bear market that will tear apart the current economic system.
    #4 Larry Edelson is “100% confident” that a global financial crisis will be triggered “within the next few months”…
    On October 7, 2015, the first economic supercycle since 1929 will trigger a global financial crisis of epic proportions. It will bring Europe, Japan and the United States to their knees, sending nearly one billion human beings on a roller-coaster ride through hell for the next five years. A ride like no generation has ever seen. I am 100% confident it will hit within the next few months.”
    #5 John Hussman is warning that market conditions such as we are observing right now have only happened at a few key moments throughout our history
    In any event, this is no time to be on autopilot. Look at the data, and you’ll realize that our present concerns are not hyperbole or exaggeration. We simply have not observed the market conditions we observe today except in a handful of instances in market history, and they have typically ended quite badly (see When You Look Back on This Moment in History and All Their Eggs in Janet’s Basket for a more extended discussion of current conditions). In my view, this is one of the most important moments in a generation to examine all of your risk exposures, the extent to which you believe historical evidence is informative, your tolerance for loss, your comfort or discomfort with missing out on potential rallies even in a wickedly overvalued market, and your true investment horizon.
    #6 During a recent appearance on CNBC, Marc Faber suggested that U.S. stocks could soon plummet by up to 40 percent
    The U.S. stock market could “easily” drop 20 percent to 40 percent, closely followed contrarian Marc Faber said Wednesday—citing a host of factors including the growing list of companies trading below their 200-day moving average.
    In recent days, “there were [also] more declining than advancing stocks, and the list of 12-month new lows was very high on Friday,” the publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
    “It shows you a lot of stocks are already declining.”
    #7 In a previous article, I noted that Henry Blodget of Business Insider is suggesting that U.S. stocks could soon drop by up to 50 percent
    As regular readers know, for the past ~21 months I have been worrying out loud about US stock prices. Specifically, I have suggested that a decline of 30% to 50% would not be a surprise.
    I haven’t predicted a crash. But I have said clearly that I think stocks will deliver returns that are way below average for the next seven to 10 years. And I certainly won’t be surprised to see stocks crash. So don’t say no one warned you!
    #8 Egon von Greyerz is even more bearish. He recently told King World Newsthat we are heading for “the most historic wealth destruction ever”…
    Eric, there are now more problem areas in the world, rather than stable situations. No major nation in the West can repay its debts. The same is true for Japan and most of the emerging markets. Europe is a failed experiment for socialism and deficit spending. China is a massive bubble, in terms of its stock markets, property markets and shadow banking system. Japan is also a basket case and the U.S. is the most indebted country in the world and has lived above its means for over 50 years.
    So we will see twin $200 trillion debt and $1.5 quadrillion derivatives implosions. That will lead to the most historic wealth destruction ever in global stock, with bond and property markets declining at least 75 – 95 percent. World trade will also contract dramatically and we will see massive hardship across the globe.
    http://www.prisonplanet.com/8-financ...-imminent.html

    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...


  8. #7
    The 7 yearh Shmita/Shemitah Cycle

    Let's take a look at the incredibly accurate timing of the Shmita Year as it impacts modern history in the realm of finances, economies and empires:
    1901-1902 Shmita Year - 46% U.S. Stock market value wiped out.
    1916-1917 Shmita Year - 40% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. Britain, the world's greatest empire was almost bankrupt. The beginning of American to rise to world power. All during this one Shmita year.
    1930-1931 Shmita Year - 86% U.S stock market value wiped out in the worst financial crisis in modern history.
    1937-1938 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.
    1944-1945 Shmita Year - End of German Reich and Britain's hold on territories. Establishment of America as the world's super power.
    1965-1966 Shmita Year - 23% stock market value wiped out.
    1972-1973 Shmita Year - 48% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession. U.S. Voted to kill its unborn children (Abortion legalized). U.S. lost its first war - Vietnam...
    1979-1980 Shmita Year - U.S. and global recession.
    1986-1987 Shmita Year - 33% U.S. Stock market value wiped out.
    1993-1994 Shmita Year - Bond market crash.
    2000-2001 Shmita Year - 37% U.S. stock market value wiped out. 9/11 and Global recession.
    2007-2008 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.
    2014-2015 Shmita Year - Same pattern but very severe judgment coming
    http://areyouready.co.za/shmita-year

    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...


  9. #8





    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...




  10. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  11. #9
    I am ready
    "Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it; no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it."
    James Madison

    "It does not take a majority to prevail ... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men." - Samuel Adams



    Μολὼν λάβε
    Dum Spiro, Pugno
    Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito

  12. #10
    OMG how depressing. I believe it, I can feel it in the air. Time to load up on cans of chicken noodle soup ( .

  13. #11
    I'm silver, bitcoin and a little cash. Anything else I need to do?

  14. #12
    Whoh! Market was down one quarter of a percent in a day? PANIC PANIC PANIC PANIC PANIC!!!!!!!!!

    Sell selll sell!!



    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 08-05-2015 at 12:05 PM.

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Whoh! Market was down one quarter of a percent in a day? PANIC PANIC PANIC PANIC PANIC!!!!!!!!!

    Sell selll sell!!
    Ron Paul is an idiot, follow Zippy!!!

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Whoh! Market was down one quarter of a percent in a day? PANIC PANIC PANIC PANIC PANIC!!!!!!!!!

    Sell selll sell!!

    You imply it would be better of me to inform my friends here at RPF of the stock market crash after it happens?


    I think you miss the point. What happens on the day is just noise.

    All the major indexes are below 5 year linear support lines; this is a major fail quantitative indication.

    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...


  17. #15
    Trends always have points above and below them. The line is the average of such points. A day below the trend line does not necessarily mean a collapse is near. How many times in the past have the indexes gone below the trend line and a collapse followed? How many times has it gone below the trend and a collapse not followed? What is the accuracy of such a predictor? Five percent of the time? Fifty percent of the time? Seventy percent of the time? If it is five percent, not worth getting excited over. Seventy percent accurate? Worth paying attention to. Since you are into chart analysis, I would expect you probably have the data on this.

    What happens on the day is just noise.
    That is true.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 08-05-2015 at 12:37 PM.

  18. #16
    Forgive me if my burden of evidence is harder to meet when a first sentence that sounds like "THE SKY IS FALLING!"

    I certainly don't have any faith in the market but if you're genuinely trying to convince people of impending doom I suspect you're not approaching it in quite the right way. Recommending specific investments certainly doesn't help your case either.

    Eh... but I'm stocked up on canned beans. I might lose a little in a market collapse but all the "I told you so"'s I'd get to deliver would be well worth it.

    Good luck to you sir. I hope your prediction pans out.
    Libertarian Money
    ^^^^^^^^^^^
    Follow that link for over 100 articles on liberty, decentralization, and money.



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by libertarianMoney View Post
    Forgive me if my burden of evidence is harder to meet when a first sentence that sounds like "THE SKY IS FALLING!"

    I certainly don't have any faith in the market but if you're genuinely trying to convince people of impending doom I suspect you're not approaching it in quite the right way. Recommending specific investments certainly doesn't help your case either.

    Eh... but I'm stocked up on canned beans. I might lose a little in a market collapse but all the "I told you so"'s I'd get to deliver would be well worth it.

    Good luck to you sir. I hope your prediction pans out.
    Pump and dump? Predicting any stock will go up six times its current value in the next five months is a warning signal not to buy it.

    Last 32.55


    I expect a valuation of 200+ by January. When it breaks up it will happen almost instantly.
    It was over $1600 a share in 2009 and is $32 today. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SPXU+Interactive#{"range":"max","allowCh artStacking":true} (choose "max" on chart).

    Buying a stock which only does well if things go really bad is highly risky.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 08-05-2015 at 01:09 PM.

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by libertarianMoney View Post
    Recommending specific investments certainly doesn't help your case either.
    SPXU is hardly a "specific investment" its an easily accessible ETF short on the S&P500.

    Its nothing like recommending a specific stock.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Pump and dump?
    That's really funny.

    You're kidding me right?
    Last edited by presence; 08-05-2015 at 01:07 PM.

    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...


  22. #19
    Call it what you want, it is a highly risky investment. Over most time periods, it loses money for investors.

  23. #20

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Call it what you want, it is a highly risky investment. Over most time periods, it loses money for investors.
    How does it usually do during Shmita?
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  25. #22
    Are you really basing your argument on a red line you drew on a graph in mspaint? Or is there something else here I'm missing?

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    How many times in the past have the indexes gone below the trend line and a collapse followed?

    []

    Since you are into chart analysis, I would expect you probably have the data on this.




    breach of five year linear support is not something to be scoffed at
    Last edited by presence; 08-05-2015 at 01:36 PM.

    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...


  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Dianne View Post
    I'm silver, bitcoin and a little cash. Anything else I need to do?
    Stay out of the cities.
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    It's a balance between appeasing his supporters, appeasing the deep state and reaching his own goals.
    ~Resident Badgiraffe






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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by brandon View Post
    Are you really basing your argument on a red line you drew on a graph in mspaint? Or is there something else here I'm missing?
    mspaint doesn't make lines that are that smooth
    A savage barbaric tribal society where thugs parade the streets and illegally assault and murder innocent civilians, yeah that is the alternative to having police. Oh wait, that is the police

    We cannot defend freedom abroad by deserting it at home.
    - Edward R. Murrow

    ...I think we have moral obligations to disobey unjust laws, because non-cooperation with evil is as much as a moral obligation as cooperation with good. - MLK Jr.

    How to trigger a liberal: "I didn't get vaccinated."

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    How does it usually do during Shmita?

    The current one ends September 13th. So far, the S&P has been doing pretty good. Proshares has gone from $44.80 to $32.89- off 25%.

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Dianne View Post
    I'm silver, bitcoin and a little cash. Anything else I need to do?
    bitcoin will mean $#@! if a large catastrophe shuts down wide access to the internet or even electricity
    A savage barbaric tribal society where thugs parade the streets and illegally assault and murder innocent civilians, yeah that is the alternative to having police. Oh wait, that is the police

    We cannot defend freedom abroad by deserting it at home.
    - Edward R. Murrow

    ...I think we have moral obligations to disobey unjust laws, because non-cooperation with evil is as much as a moral obligation as cooperation with good. - MLK Jr.

    How to trigger a liberal: "I didn't get vaccinated."

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by presence View Post

    Pretty graph but still doesn't answer the question as to how often the predictor of stock falling below some "support level" is actually followed by a recession. It does show that stocks have gone up and down. It does show how often it did. So how many times did it fail to predict? (I am not going to personally count all those littler downward jags followed by more increases but there are a whole lot more of them than the big ones).

    Another point is that the slope of a "support line" or a "trend line" will depend heavily on the time frame (length) you give it and on the dates you start and stop it. It is really arbitrary- not a fixed point which cannot be crossed without a crisis. They change over time too. A ten year line will have a different slope from a five year line or from a three year line. Are any of them more or less valid or more or less predictive? Or are none of them necessarily predictive of the future? If a line is crossed, are we guaranteed a recession? No- we aren't.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 08-05-2015 at 02:43 PM.

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by brandon View Post
    Are you really basing your argument on a red line you drew on a graph in mspaint? Or is there something else here I'm missing?
    Yeah, it's called the "big picture".
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Warrior_of_Freedom View Post
    bitcoin will mean $#@! if a large catastrophe shuts down wide access to the internet or even electricity
    The discussion is about a market crash, not an approaching meteor. ?
    They confronted me in the day of my calamity, but the Lord was my support.

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