http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/322...af5f5f78ad.pdf
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/pr...owa/exit-polls
This is one of the latest Iowa caucus polls. Rand got 5 percent.. Ugh terrible right?.. Please take a look at this and compare it to entrance polls of the 2012 caucus and tell me if you see the glaring weaknesses of this poll..?
I see two huge ones right off the bat.. The people polled do NOT match the electorate of the recent election. 8 % of the people polled in this poll were 18-34. In the 2012 caucus an estimation puts a similar category at 17-29 (which is even smaller!) at 15 percent of the electorate.. That's a HUGE weakness. And guess what.. Ron dominated by grabbing almost half of all those voters. They should have polled at about 20 % to make this accurate and that alone would have boosted Rand much much higher. And this year, it is expected to have even more young voters due to school being in session this year at time of the caucus.
Another glaring weakness is that this poll only polled Registered Republicans. On election night about 25% identified independent. Ron also got close to about half of that demographic. Guys these polls are junk. So no Rand is no where near 5 percent..
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