New PPP poll: Rand only at 4% (5?) but does the best against Hillary

[AuH20]

Trump would likely appoint a Ginsburg or Sotomayor to the Supreme Court. The issue of border security is basically the only issue Trump is conservative on.

Who knows what Trump is conservative on? He could be far worse than advertised or far better. We don't know. He's been a fixture in the 'pay to play' political environment for his entire life that his true intentions have been obscured. It's going to be interesting going forward what is revealed.

[RonPaulMall]

And once again, the idiot GOP will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

LOL @ politics.

"Who does better in General Election" has never been a reason why people vote for one candidate over another in the primary. If that had been the case, Reagan and Goldwater never would have gotten the nomination. Rand has nobody to blame for his predicament except for himself. If he had been running a strong, confident campaign like Reagan and Goldwater he'd be among the leaders right now. People don't respond to mealy mouthed pandering and equivocation.

[nikcers]

"Who does better in General Election" has never been a reason why people vote for one candidate over another in the primary. If that had been the case, Reagan and Goldwater never would have gotten the nomination. Rand has nobody to blame for his predicament except for himself. If he had been running a strong, confident campaign like Reagan and Goldwater he'd be among the leaders right now. People don't respond to mealy mouthed pandering and equivocation.

He is leading in the most crucial way, he is the most electable republican running. There is a reason why Obama calls out Rand in a field of 16. There are a crap ton of surrogate candidates that are there just to muddle the polls and they still can't keep him out of the debates.

[Galileo Galilei]

I don't feel like digging up the polls right now.

There were polls that showed Ron with the only real chance to beat Obama in key swing states.

Just like now.

And once again, the idiot GOP will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

LOL @ politics.

Ron did better with independents than Romney, but Romney held the GOP base better than Ron and it all pretty much evened out. Rand holds the GOP base better than Ron, but maintains his lead with with independents too.

[RabbitMan]

Ron never did better than Obama, that was a myth that even I was surprised to find out about.

[Bman]

It's the current Republican party. Look at 2012. After every debate there was a new front runner. I don't know what to think about the current numbers other than with some later arrivals people keep looking for the next new thing. What does surprise me are Bush's numbers. I know plenty of Republicans. Many who are not Libertarian leaning and I know of no one who puts Jeb Bush as their top pick. Not even close.

[Barrex]

On poll numbers

4:33

Interesting. People asked why is rand not focusing on Iowa and New Hampshire. In this interview Rand answered why is he visiting "other states" and not focusing on just first few:

About election at 5:45: "it could go on longer that before....i dont think anyone is inevitable...it will be contested primary"


He is speculating that this time because of so many candidates republican nominee will not be decided after just first few states. If he is right his visits to "other states" could pay multiple times. He will be only candidate that visited them and will have head start in those states...

[Lord Xar]

They are gonna do their best to prevent Rand from coming into the first debate....

but it is kinda shocking when cruz was at like 2% and carlson/rubio at like 6%, and Rand at 7% .. and now... cruz is tied with Rand, and Rubio/Carlson pull ahead by alot.. seeeeems very fish to me.............. very. And Fiorina tied? huh? this is alllll very orewelian if you ask me....

I predict Rand will mysteriously not make it, into the 1st debate. Infact, I predict next PPP poll will have Rand dropping further and some nonesuch ahead of him...... they are doing a Ron on Rand.

Kasich at 3% --- FOR $#@! SAKE... WHO THE $#@! IS KASICH!!!!! And Rand at 4%... the fix is in.. imho.

[CPUd]

Interesting. People asked why is rand not focusing on Iowa and New Hampshire. In this interview Rand answered why is he visiting "other states" and not focusing on just first few:

About election at 5:45: "it could go on longer that before....i dont think anyone is inevitable...it will be contested primary"


He is speculating that this time because of so many candidates republican nominee will not be decided after just first few states. If he is right his visits to "other states" could pay multiple times. He will be only candidate that visited them and will have head start in those states...

Rand has been in Iowa and NH, just not at some of the media events. He has been working small venues with local GOPs.

Also in these early states, Rand's campaign has been buying a lot of advertising, along with Bush, Rubio, probably Ted Cruz. When other candidates get around to campaigning there, they are not going to have access to that inventory because it has been sold out well in advance.

[RonPaulMall]

He is leading in the most crucial way, he is the most electable republican running. There is a reason why Obama calls out Rand in a field of 16. There are a crap ton of surrogate candidates that are there just to muddle the polls and they still can't keep him out of the debates.

The most "crucial way" would be leading the Republican Primary, because that is the contest he's actually competing in at the moment and if he doesn't win that nothing else matters. You know who else would be winning a general election match up against Hillary? Jim Webb. He'd get all the GOP support and peel of all Hillary's working class white support and she'd get crushed. So why doesn't he just run in the GOP Primary? Because he can't win the GOP Primary. I don't want to hear about how good Rand is doing in a theoretical General Election match up that's never going to happen if he continues to plummet in the race that actually matters. Rand needs to get his numbers up among GOP voters and the only way to do that is run a campaign that excites and inspires the GOP electorate.

[CPUd]

The most "crucial way" would be leading the Republican Primary, because that is the contest he's actually competing in at the moment and if he doesn't win that nothing else matters. You know who else would be winning a general election match up against Hillary? Jim Webb. He'd get all the GOP support and peel of all Hillary's working class white support and she'd get crushed. So why doesn't he just run in the GOP Primary? Because he can't win the GOP Primary. I don't want to hear about how good Rand is doing in a theoretical General Election match up that's never going to happen if he continues to plummet in the race that actually matters. Rand needs to get his numbers up among GOP voters and the only way to do that is run a campaign that excites and inspires the GOP electorate.

National polls don't really matter either when there are 50 separate state contests. In Iowa and NH, he's actually been polling consistently in the top 4





(screenshots taken approximately the same time as this post)

[jkob]

not seeing a path right now

[Galileo Galilei]

not seeing a path right now

Just watch, Rand has shifted has strategy back to red meat issues. His poll numbers will rise and will be way up in two months.

[Krugminator2]

. You know who else would be winning a general election match up against Hillary? Jim Webb. He'd get all the GOP support and peel of all Hillary's working class white support and she'd get crushed. So why doesn't he just run in the GOP Primary? Because he can't win the GOP Primary.

That sounds nice but it is wrong. Webb as a Republican nominee would lose in a landslide head to head vs Hillary. Hillary would dominate with Democrats and she would pick up some hawkish Republican support and other random Republicans. And a significant part of the Republican electorate would never vote for a pro-choice socialist, even if he had an R next to his name. And that isn't taking into consideration Hillary's financial edge.

[Texan4Life]

They are gonna do their best to prevent Rand from coming into the first debate....

but it is kinda shocking when cruz was at like 2% and carlson/rubio at like 6%, and Rand at 7% .. and now... cruz is tied with Rand, and Rubio/Carlson pull ahead by alot.. seeeeems very fish to me.............. very. And Fiorina tied? huh? this is alllll very orewelian if you ask me....

I predict Rand will mysteriously not make it, into the 1st debate. Infact, I predict next PPP poll will have Rand dropping further and some nonesuch ahead of him...... they are doing a Ron on Rand.

Kasich at 3% --- FOR $#@! SAKE... WHO THE $#@! IS KASICH!!!!! And Rand at 4%... the fix is in.. imho.

I agree with your analysis.... Hopefully we are wrong of course.

top 10 candidates from the last 5 polls.... Lemme guess the last 5 will have Rand polling the lowest he ever has. Or if he does squeak in, they will severely restrict his talking time and give an excuse... something like "well we gave the top 5 the most speaking time" or some crap.

I'm still pumped about Rand, but my enthusiasm for the first debate is dwindling rapidly.

[AuH20]

not seeing a path right now

3 years ago, I though Rand had the moxie to be a real rabble rouser like Trump but he's been extremely meek. This meekness has resulted in him losing 5 points nationally since May.

[AuH20]

Just watch, Rand has shifted has strategy back to red meat issues. His poll numbers will rise and will be way up in two months.

The inherent problem is that voters typically don't come back for second looks. Unless there is an extreme shakeup, his numbers aren't going to deviate much.

[jkob]

Rand's pandering has killed his campaign, if he stuck with us he would of had a chance because then he'd represent real change and could potentially expand the base with crossover votes but he's done everything possible to spit their eyes and ours so his brand is ruined by being "just another Republican" even tho the Fox News base still doesn't like him. There being such a crowded field would of benefited us, if Rand had balls then he could of been sitting at the top of the polls. Now the campaign is on life support, yeah the support might be better than what his dad's was at the same time(don't think this is true in 2012 to be honest) but we have the opposite momentum. It's a horrific strategy that will set the liberty movement back years. HEARTS AND MINDS ARE ALL THAT MATTER, WE CAN'T TRICK ANYBODY!

[SilentBull]

Just watch, Rand has shifted has strategy back to red meat issues. His poll numbers will rise and will be way up in two months.

I admit I am a little concerned about this debate. He needs some headlines quick. There are only 2 weeks left before the debate.

[kbs021]

Guys... The first two states... IOWA and NH is all that matters right now. The national polls are meaningless. Rand has got an extremely solid chance to win 1 if not both. If Rand can win Iowa it might be game-over. That is what the focus should be on.

[trojansc82]

The primary issue with most moderate Americans is illegal immigration. There are up to 30 million illegals in the US. This is almost 10% of the population.

Rand made a serious mistake trying to make his hallmark issue the NSA. It's no doubt important, but most Republicans view illegal immigration as a serious threat both to the economy and their own safety.

It's nice that Rand thought he could get the nomination by bringing together a coalition of non-traditional Republican voters, but it's not likely that he will win the nomination this way. Most younger people are less likely to vote, and even less likely to register as a Republican in order to vote. There are even fewer African Americans that want to register as a Republican, even if they say they agree with Rand on a number of issues.

Trump's rise is directly related to the fact that the mainstream GOP/RINOs are looking to enact amnesty at a time when the real unemployment rate could be as high as 20% (the numbers used to calculate unemployment by the government don't take into account the number of people who have stopped looking for work). Most Americans want a strict immigration system, especially since the average illegal coming into the US has the equivalent of a third grade education and typically abuses our generous welfare system.

Rand needed to come out hard against illegal immigration and H1B visas. Walker did that and it sent him skyrocketing in the polls. Trump has come out even harder, and now we see the results.

The GOP agrees with Rand on the NSA, gun rights, and taxes. Trump's decision to make illegal immigration his hallmark issue may ultimately lead to him becoming the GOP nominee. The only way I see Rand taking the nomination at this point is to say we'll build a wall and make Mexico pay for it, and that we'll send all of the H1B visa workers home and replace them with Americans.

[kbs021]

"Cain garnered 25 percent support of Republican primary voters in the poll released on Tuesday, compared to Romney's 21 percent." "The Quinnipiac University poll showed the Texas Gov. Rick perry and newcomer to the 2012 race with 24 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 18 percent, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin with 11 percent, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann with ten percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul with nine percent. The remaining candidates received five percent or below." "The poll found Mrs. Bachmann garnering 24 percent of the vote, well-ahead of businessman Herman Cain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who each received 15 percent support."

Guys... Trump is another flavor of the month.. We haven't made it to the first debate. To be surging right now is a death wish... Now that we have that out of the way, Trumps past positions are TERRIBLE. I almost threw up looking them up. There is no way that this GOP elects trump. Seriously donations to hillary lol, universal healthcare, gun control, eminent domain, taxes, etc. If someone calls him out on these positions (which they will eventually for sure) he will lose a ton of support. He also has a very low chance to win a general. He is polling the worst against hillary right now even worse than Cruz. Rand doesn't need to throw away the general. Rand actually has a huge ground game in the first two states. Relax, focus on outreach, remind people that voting records and past positions matter, and help Rand in Iowa and NH! Now is the time to suck it up and not freak out when people talk about trump. If people elect this FAKE there was never a chance for us. Seriously over 20% of the vote in 2012 we had in Iowa and NH. If we increase that then we win. That is all that matters.

[AuH20]

"Cain garnered 25 percent support of Republican primary voters in the poll released on Tuesday, compared to Romney's 21 percent." "The Quinnipiac University poll showed the Texas Gov. Rick perry and newcomer to the 2012 race with 24 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 18 percent, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin with 11 percent, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann with ten percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul with nine percent. The remaining candidates received five percent or below." "The poll found Mrs. Bachmann garnering 24 percent of the vote, well-ahead of businessman Herman Cain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who each received 15 percent support."

Guys... Trump is another flavor of the month.. We haven't made it to the first debate. To be surging right now is a death wish... Now that we have that out of the way, Trumps past positions are TERRIBLE. I almost threw up looking them up. There is no way that this GOP elects trump. Seriously donations to hillary lol, universal healthcare, gun control, eminent domain, taxes, etc. If someone calls him out on these positions (which they will eventually for sure) he will lose a ton of support. He also has a very low chance to win a general. He is polling the worst against hillary right now even worse than Cruz. Rand doesn't need to throw away the general. Rand actually has a huge ground game in the first two states. Relax, focus on outreach, remind people that voting records and past positions matter, and help Rand in Iowa and NH! Now is the time to suck it up and not freak out when people talk about trump. If people elect this FAKE there was never a chance for us. Seriously over 20% of the vote in 2012 we had in Iowa and NH. If we increase that then we win. That is all that matters.

Trump is not Cain. He oozes confidence and relishes fighting with GOP establishment figures. He's not going away. I've been watching Trump's press conferences and I have been surprisingly impressed.

[kbs021]

He CURRENTLY loves fighting with them. He has been giving money to several establishment types. Trump also has an extremely high chance of saying stupid things. Trump has surged mere weeks. Trump will not make it to Iowa without several stumbles. He can ooze confidence and fake fight all he wants, that cannot erase his history of being the financier and a big believer in large government. I don't care if he goes away. Rand, better yet our movement can beat this guy without trouble. This country is tired of corruption and flip flopping histories like that of Romney, Trump, Hillary, etc.

Seriously this is a man who donated to Hillary Clinton! How can he continue to resonate when this crap gets out? He has yet, just like walker, to be vetted. Its going to be one heck of a fall and Rand will be left standing.

[AuH20]

He CURRENTLY loves fighting with them. He has been giving money to several establishment types. Trump also has an extremely high chance of saying stupid things. Trump has surged mere weeks. Trump will not make it to Iowa without several stumbles. He can ooze confidence and fake fight all he wants, that cannot erase his history of being the financier and a big believer in large government. I don't care if he goes away. Rand, better yet our movement can beat this guy without trouble. This country is tired of corruption and flip flopping histories like that of Romney, Trump, Hillary, etc.

I don't think people care about his past positions. They enjoy watching him embarrass the field and exhibit his Type A personality. The electorate hates the GOP and Trump is feeding into that hate.

[dude58677]

Trump is not Cain. He oozes confidence and relishes fighting with GOP establishment figures. He's not going away. I've been watching Trump's press conferences and I have been surprisingly impressed.

No he is a fake and Rand needs to attack him but that doesn't mean bring in the Oathkeepers to do it.

[kbs021]

I don't think people KNOW about his past positions. As I said before, if they fall for this obvious fake, then there was never any hope. Remember when Christie was polling well because he was a loud brash talker? Where is he now? Trump was and possibly is an even larger fake than he is.

[David Sadler]

Fox doesn't go by the RCP average. They're going to take the average of the last 5 credible independent polls that are released. If Rand averaged 4% he would probably be safe, but he can't drop any lower than that, and he's been dropping a lot in the primary polls for some reason.

I think most liberty-minded conservatives are put off by the chain saw theatrics and his attempt to distance himself from Trump's crude but believable honesty and passion.

Trump is talking in a way that is understood by low-information voters as well as more sophisticated voters who are seething mad at the sorry state of the nation and the apparent vacuum of leadership to get us out of it.

If voters saw more energy and passion out of Rand, and heard a bit more street talk, it would help his numbers.

[David Sadler]

Come on... haven't we seen this Trump show before? He's a goofball. If people are serious about him I really don't know what to think anymore.

I really have a hard time picturing him as president.

I'm not intending to pick on you even though this is a second reply to a post of yours in this thread. Your questions are good ones.

I never paid any attention to Trump until his border comments. I watched his show once to see what it was about and never tuned in again. My opinions of Trump were formed by the media and by the opinions of others whose opinions were formed by the media.

I'm reading his book, watching his interviews and press conferences. Yes, he's brash, raw and self-promoting. But he's also a proven successful businessman and he's fearless.

I don't understand his aggressive attitude against Iran, but it's shared by every other GOP candidate in the field, so Iran is not a deciding factor. He's for bringing the troops home from Korea or at least making Korea pay for our troops being there.

He's for killing the farce of 'free' trade that is de-industrializing the US and replacing it with trade that benefits the sovereignty, security and prosperity of Americans.

He's for securing the border and returning to regulated immigration based upon the needs of the nation.

So I'm wondering if this impression of him being a 'goofball' was arrived at from your direct observations of him or from the media?

[kbs021]

All those things that you mentioned are based on what he is currently saying. I don't believe we have any reason to take what he says at face value. I see an opportunist at best who will try to make moves based on popularity. These issues that he has completely turned a 180 on are core positions that make me question his sincerity. People are liking him because he is "honest, courageous, truthful." I say he is not... He is doing exactly what he needs for news coverage.