CNN/ORC 6/26-6/28 Bush-19,Trump-12,Huck-8,Paul and Carson-7

[CPUd]

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/im...ushclinton.pdf

Looks like they are jumping ship from Rubio and Walker. Also Ted Cruz at 3%.

BASED ON 256 RESPONDENTS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 151 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 407 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/-5 PERCENTAGE PTS.

[acptulsa]

Christie isn't exactly getting a bump out of announcing his candidacy, is he?

Meanwhile, we obviously have our work cut out for us. I can't believe this stat:

BASED ON 256 RESPONDENTS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 151 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 407 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PTS.
BASED ON 236 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 132 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 368 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PTS.
28. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle:
The economy
Registered All voters
Bush 20% Trump 19% Walker 7% Paul 6% Huckabee 5% Rubio 5% Carson 4% Perry 4% Santorum 3% Christie 2% Cruz 2% Jindal 2% Kasich 2% Fiorina 1% Graham 1% Pataki 1% Someone else (vol.) 1% None/No one 6% No opinion 9%

We and Rand Paul himself need to remember the immortal words of Bill Clinton: 'It's the economy, stupid.' Otherwise, we aren't going to pull this off.

[CPUd]

This is the same question, but for registered voters only:

[specsaregood]

Also Ted Cruz at 3%.

Good, another percent or so and it looks like ole judas Rafael might lose his invite to the debates.

[squirl22]

I can't figure out where those Trump figures are coming from because it seems I recall a large percentage of Republicans and others think Trump is a sideshow. I remember when Iowa was so concerned last time that a win for Ron Paul would damage their reputation or something, but I guess a vote for Trump is A-ok?

[acptulsa]

I can't figure out where those Trump figures are coming from because it seems I recall a large percentage of Republicans and others think Trump is a sideshow. I remember when Iowa was so concerned last time that a win for Ron Paul would damage their reputation or something, but I guess a vote for Trump is A-ok?

Hm, let's see. Don't know who that is. Never heard of him. Who? Oh, there's a name I recognize! Oh, it's Bush, yecch...

And here's another name I recognize. Guess I'll pick that one.

[jaymur]

None of the above 7%

Which of these 27 candidates would you support (and you can't choose yourself)?
None of the above 0%.

[CPUd]

I can't figure out where those Trump figures are coming from because it seems I recall a large percentage of Republicans and others think Trump is a sideshow. I remember when Iowa was so concerned last time that a win for Ron Paul would damage their reputation or something, but I guess a vote for Trump is A-ok?

The 2 big ones from this poll show him polling high on illegal immigration and the economy. These are the redstaters and freepers. Quinnipiac Iowa is out today with him at 10%, I'm betting he's polling highest on those issues there, too.

[acptulsa]

None of the above 7%

We need to remember that if you combine none of the above, hell if I know, and no one at all, the resulting group is in second place.

This poll does not say we've already lost. It says we need to get to work.

Am I the only one who finds it laughable that they include an option for no president at all? They are working awfully, awfully hard to divide up the undecideds in a silly attempt to make it look like they're a small group. The undecideds are not a small group.

[CPUd]

Yeah, they're gonna drop from Trump when they realize he supports Democrats, too. Rand was smart to start rolling out his economic platform with the tax plan and attracting companies to move back to the US. I can see a couple candidates drop before Iowa, like Carson and Cruz, whose voters have Rand as a 2nd choice.

[Sola_Fide]

Trump will sink like a stone. He is not a serious candidate. When Bush gets into the debates, he will start to sink as well. Carson will sink in the debates. Cruz is going nowhere. Rubio might go somewhere. Walker might go somewhere.

For Iowa, Rand's competition is going to be Huckabee, Walker, Cruz, and Bush.

[jj-]

I can't figure out where those Trump figures are coming from because it seems I recall a large percentage of Republicans and others think Trump is a sideshow.

A smaller percentage, 12%, apparently thinks he isn't.

Also, thinking he is a clown shouldn't disqualify him. Any clown will be better than Obama or Romney, so if it were up to me I'll play it safe and go with a clown.

[CaptUSA]

Trump will sink like a stone. He is not a serious candidate. When Bush gets into the debates, he will start to sink as well. Carson will sink in the debates. Cruz is going nowhere. Rubio might go somewhere. Walker might go somewhere.

For Iowa, Rand's competition is going to be Huckabee, Walker, Cruz, and Bush.

I'm not so sure of that. He just has to say nothing. Romney pulled it off.

[jj-]

I'm not so sure of that. He just has to say nothing. Romney pulled it off.

Trump or others might sink him.

[alucard13mm]

I noticed rand started to get wrecked after talking about baltimore and confederate flags. Perhaps he should stay away from those issues unless forced to say something about it during an interview. Or deflect to economic or foreign policy issues.

[Warlord]

Rand will be competitive when the debates start, the ads start rolling and the campaign goes into full swing.. we're 6 months away yet. These numbers are based on name recognition. I remember Guiliani leading the 2007 polls

[anaconda]

Fiorina surging at 1%. Perhaps my worries about Kasich were unwarranted.

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

Nearly 3 in 10 voters said they would definitely not support Trump. Bush and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who are viewed as moderates by Republican base voters, come close to that with 24% and 18%, respectively, saying they would never support those candidates.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/01/politi...-scott-walker/

Bush and Trump are riding high on name recognition, but have high negatives, which means it'll be hard to grow their numbers. They have plenty of issues on which to be attacked, as well. Rand is sitting right near the top behind these guys, which IMO is a nice place to be pre-debates.

[acptulsa]

Bush and Trump are riding high on name recognition, but have high negatives, which means it'll be hard to grow their numbers. They have plenty of issues on which to be attacked, as well. Rand is sitting right near the top behind these guys, which IMO is a nice place to be pre-debates.

This. If we can make people think, 'I want to hear what that guy says in the debates,' then I have a very good feeling about the whole thing.

[Foreigner]

Cruz barely eeking out a TIE for 10th place!

I think a lot are are jumping ship to Rand. But most are going over to Trump.

Rand is also losing a lot support to Trump. At least about the same he is gaining from Cruz. Morons are posting Trump/Paul 2016 on social media... or You just lost my vote over X, now I'm all in for Trump... It's not like like Rand's supporters (at least on facebook) are smart and the rest stupid. There is a lot of low-information crap going on in this election.

Rand did the smart thing when he only said nice things about Trump. He recognizes that they share parts of the base, and it could turn of a lot of them if he was slinging dirt. With Cruz he stated that he agrees with him on most issues, but that Cruz is essentially unelectable while he would defeat Clinton. That needs to be said, because Cruz is an serious candidate. Nobody in the republican field wants to be the guy to attack Trump, because then they would be seen as on the same level as him - a joke candidate.

[Jeremy]

Trump really did a number on Rubio and Walker, eh?

[DevilsAdvocate]

I can't figure out where those Trump figures are coming from because it seems I recall a large percentage of Republicans and others think Trump is a sideshow. I remember when Iowa was so concerned last time that a win for Ron Paul would damage their reputation or something, but I guess a vote for Trump is A-ok?

He's getting raved about all over talk radio. Don't ask how I know. It's a joke, the guy is just using the nomination process to self aggrandize and sell his brand. I think Republicans really like to be taken advantage of and abused for some reason. Either that or they just aren't that smart. Bush at the top of the polls? COME ON!!!

[65fastback2+2]

We and Rand Paul himself need to remember the immortal words of Bill Clinton: 'It's the economy, stupid.' Otherwise, we aren't going to pull this off.

Nope. That was in the 1990's.

If it were the economy, then obviously Mitt would have thumped obammy to kingdom come. But it isnt about that anymore.

[RonPaulMall]

He's getting raved about all over talk radio. Don't ask how I know. It's a joke, the guy is just using the nomination process to self aggrandize and sell his brand. I think Republicans really like to be taken advantage of and abused for some reason.

Denial is not helpful in winning elections. Hopefully Rand's team is studying Trump's success closely, and not just writing it off to "stupid" voters as many in this thread seem to be doing. Trump is an obnoxious buffoon, yes. Even among his supporters that I've spoken to, most don't seem to like him all that much on a personal level. Trump is surging not because of his personality or because voters are stupid, but because he has based his campaign entirely on the two most important issues among the voters- The Economy and Immigration.

Acptulsa is correct. "It is the economy, stupid." And back when Clinton won on that platform the economy wasn't half as bad as it is today. Rand needs to re-tailor his rhetoric so that 75% of the stuff that comes out of his mouth is populist economic rhetoric. If he is viewed primarily as the candidate of pot and NSA reform, he's going to get crushed. A campaign like that might be possible in an bull economy when everybody is fat and happy, but it will never play in the midst of the economic insecurity that grips America at present. And the frustrating thing is, no candidate except for maybe Scott Walker is better positioned to run on a populist economic platform than Rand Paul. Everything is lined up for him. He's just got to focus on the right things.

Nope. That was in the 1990's.

If it were the economy, then obviously Mitt would have thumped obammy to kingdom come. But it isnt about that anymore.

I don't think you quite understand what "It's the economy" means. The general belief that Mitt Romney only served the interests of Wall Street and 1% was the biggest reason for his defeat.

[cat_woman]

Trump will sink like a stone. He is not a serious candidate. When Bush gets into the debates, he will start to sink as well. Carson will sink in the debates. Cruz is going nowhere. Rubio might go somewhere. Walker might go somewhere.

For Iowa, Rand's competition is going to be Huckabee, Walker, Cruz, and Bush.

I agree he's not a serious candidate, but I wouldn't bet on him sinking. He's a narcissist and a faux conservative, but he's bombastic and a gas bag, and at least some conservatives are loving it.

I visit quite a few conservative sites and one of them is almost euphoric about The Donald. I pointed out in the comments that he's given money to Hillary (!) Chuck Schumer, Harry Reid and other leftists, in addition to the Clinton Foundation, and was attacked for being "clueless". Honestly some conservatives drive me mad.

But then I see Cruz is at 3% in this poll (a very small sample though) so I think it's possible a lot of Cruz/Trump supporters are the fringe who post on conservative sites and not really representative of the R electorate. So we shall see.

But I don't think Trump's campaign is going to sink any time soon. In the meantime, he's hurting every R in the race with his inflammatory rhetoric. And he's getting heaps of media coverage. Doesn't matter to him if it's negative nor not. It's the attention he wants.

And I believe after the damage is done, he will drop out and endorse Hillary.

[nikcers]

I agree he's not a serious candidate, but I wouldn't bet on him sinking. He's a narcissist and a faux conservative, but he's bombastic and a gas bag, and at least some conservatives are loving it.

I visit quite a few conservative sites and one of them is almost euphoric about The Donald. I pointed out in the comments that he's given money to Hillary (!) Chuck Schumer, Harry Reid and other leftists, in addition to the Clinton Foundation, and was attacked for being "clueless". Honestly some conservatives drive me mad.

But then I see Cruz is at 3% in this poll (a very small sample though) so I think it's possible a lot of Cruz/Trump supporters are the fringe who post on conservative sites and not really representative of the R electorate. So we shall see.

But I don't think Trump's campaign is going to sink any time soon. In the meantime, he's hurting every R in the race with his inflammatory rhetoric. And he's getting heaps of media coverage. Doesn't matter to him if it's negative nor not. It's the attention he wants.

And I believe after the damage is done, he will drop out and endorse Hillary.

I see that there are two sides to this coin though, I think the damage he is doing to the moderates in the party is priceless. I think he is drawing a line in the sand but its hard to tell where, or if that line will be an arrow when he is done drawing it... I am pretty sure that candidates can use as much as their own money as they want and he has the money to run into the convention. He could even leave the party and try to run 3rd party. I absolutely don't think he is really running for president though, he has stated multiple times that the reason that republicans lost the election in 2012 was because they ran a moderate, it seems to me that he is attacking mostly the moderates in the party that can't actually win in the general election as well so only time can tell whether or not that line turns into an arrow.

[samforpaul]

I visit quite a few conservative sites and one of them is almost euphoric about The Donald.

Cat_woman, could you tell me the names of a few of these? I'm interested in what they have to say.

Sincere thanks!

[acptulsa]

He's getting raved about all over talk radio. Don't ask how I know. It's a joke, the guy is just using the nomination process to self aggrandize and sell his brand. I think Republicans really like to be taken advantage of and abused for some reason. Either that or they just aren't that smart. Bush at the top of the polls? COME ON!!!

He's obviously the first selection in this cycle's Fox Candidate of the Month Club.