NH WMUR/CNN Granite State poll 6/25

[kahless]

Jeb Bush 16%
Donald Trump 11%
Rand Paul 9%
Scott Walker 8%
Marco Rubio 6%
Carly Fiorina 6%
Ben Carson 5%
Chris Christie 5%
Rick Perry 4%
Ted Cruz 3%
Mike Huckabee 2%
1%: George Pataki, John Kasich, Lindsey Graham

Poll of 402 likely Republican primary voters conducted June 18-24; error margin +/- 4.9ppts

http://www.wmur.com/blob/view/-/3377...-GOP-poll.docx

[serenityrick]

Jeb Bush 16%
Donald Trump 11%
Rand Paul 9%
Scott Walker 8%
Marco Rubio 6%
Carly Fiorina 6%
Ben Carson 5%
Chris Christie 5%
Rick Perry 4%
Ted Cruz 3%
Mike Huckabee 2%
1%: George Pataki, John Kasich, Lindsey Graham

Poll of 402 likely Republican primary voters conducted June 18-24; error margin +/- 4.9ppts

http://www.wmur.com/blob/view/-/3377...-GOP-poll.docx

How in the $#@! is Trump second?

As a New Hampshire resident, I'm embarrassed as hell right now.

[orenbus]

I'm thinking once Chris Christie gets in the race it will eat away at Bush's numbers. NH seems to have an infatuation with supporting locally regional candidates, at least when it comes to establishment candidates it seems.

[orenbus]

How in the $#@! is Trump second?

Because New York is close by.

[eleganz]

Its not hard to imagine him high up in the polls, he shocked people by unpredictably formally entering the race. He has great name recognition and he has a loud mouth. People hate politicians so when a loud mouth billionaire enters the game and starts blasting opponents without a filter, people take notice.

Eventually people will accept that he is not presidential material.

[Chieppa1]

He will get destroyed. Trump that is.

[kahless]

I'm thinking once Chris Christie gets in the race it will eat away at Bush's numbers. NH seems to have an infatuation with supporting locally regional candidates, at least when it comes to establishment candidates it seems.

Maybe but notice in this poll Christie has the 2nd highest unfavorables.

[jj-]

Eventually people will accept that he is not presidential material.

Since when that disqualifies anybody? We haven't had presidential material elected President for more than 80 years.

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

These results are great news. In addition to countering that stupid Suffolk poll that had Rand at only 4%, it further bolsters the view Walker and Rubio are fading.

[orenbus]

Maybe but notice in this poll Christie has the 2nd highest unfavorables.

I don't think that really matters that much in this case. A portion of the public may say one thing another will act differently, I think that is especially true in NH take a look at Trump and Bush for example and yet in the same poll they are 1st and 2nd. Anywhere else in the country Christie probably wouldn't have much of a chance at swinging Bush's numbers towards him, in NH he has a shot, just because of region. /smh

Most Unpopular Republican Candidate

While support for him has increased in recent months, Trump remains the candidate Republicans are least likely to vote for. When asked which candidate they would NOT vote for under any circumstance, 23% of likely Republican Primary voters say they would not vote for Trump, 10% would not vote for Bush, 10% would not vote for Christie, 4% would not vote for Cruz, 4% would not vote for Paul, 3% would not vote for Huckabee, 2% would not vote for Jindal, 2% would not vote for Walker, 2% would not vote for Rubio, 2% would not vote for Pataki, 2% would not vote for Santorum, 2% would not vote for Graham, 1% would not vote for Perry, 1% would not vote for King, 13% think all the prospective candidates are acceptable, and 19% are unsure.

On the upside this works favorably for Rand if you have three candidates competing for the Romney vote this time around, it would be great.

[Foreigner]

These results are great news. In addition to countering that stupid Suffolk poll that had Rand at only 4%, it further bolsters the view Walker and Rubio are fading.

Yup! I did never buy the 4% poll, and not just because it was bad news.

However, disregarding the 4% poll, this isn't GREAT news, since it means Rand is only polling the same in NH as he does nationally. I think the clown Trump has a lot of Rand's low info soft support right now. Rand has been doing suprisingly all right with moderates for the last year, because he cultivated the perception that he's a moderate on every issue except for being fiscally conservative. But as he's upped the rethoric lately, I think some appear to gravitate around Bush, who was previously doing poorly in NH polls. But it is early still, and it can be fixed.

Rand doing everything right with regards to pushing his electability on social media and in interviews. But the media is not very interested in pushing the story that Rand does best against Hillary. I think a lot less than 10% of republicans know this. Hopefully he will keep on doing the best against Hillary all the way until the primaries start. By then, it would be much more common knowledge that Rand is the most electable candidate. At least 1/3rd of the primary voters will vote for the person they think can beat the democrats, not the candidate they like the most.

[SilentBull]

Excellent news. We have to realize there hasn't been a single debate yet nor some of those awesome ads that the Rand campaign came up with in 2010.

[William Tell]

Fiorina....

[squirl22]

I think Rand would get some of Cruz's support if Cruz drops out. I am appalled by the Bush numbers. If that is what the GOP wants, then they will lose again, that is unless they are able to cheat. One reason to make it look like Bush is ahead is that it makes it easier to cheat. I think the other Bush brother owns, or is invested in, the voting machines that are per-programmed to vote for a Bush. If it looks like a close election, they can get away with it, so they have to buy out the polling companies, which is no problem,just like buying out the Supreme Court. I read somewhere that Jeb was making money off Obamacare and that Roberts was a friend down in Florida in the 2000 election fix. (He was later rewarded with the Supreme Court position). So, money talks...

[Foreigner]

I think Rand would get some of Cruz's support if Cruz drops out. I am appalled by the Bush numbers. If that is what the GOP wants, then they will lose again, that is unless they are able to cheat. One reason to make it look like Bush is ahead is that it makes it easier to cheat. I think the other Bush brother owns, or is invested in, the voting machines that are per-programmed to vote for a Bush. If it looks like a close election, they can get away with it, so they have to buy out the polling companies, which is no problem,just like buying out the Supreme Court. I read somewhere that Jeb was making money off Obamacare and that Roberts was a friend down in Florida in the 2000 election fix. (He was later rewarded with the Supreme Court position). So, money talks...

Suddenly you got me thinking of the sorry individuals who have voted/will vote for:


Bush in the 1980 primary
Reagan/Bush in the 1980 general
Reagan/Bush in 1984
Bush in the 1988 primary
Bush in the 1988 general
Bush in 1992
Bush in the 2000 primaries
Bush in the 2000 general
Bush in 2004
Bush in the 2016 primaries


That's 10x Bush! I'm sure he will get some extra support from older people who by mistake checks his name out of old habbit in the voting booth.

[kahless]

I think Rand would get some of Cruz's support if Cruz drops out. I am appalled by the Bush numbers. If that is what the GOP wants, then they will lose again, that is unless they are able to cheat. One reason to make it look like Bush is ahead is that it makes it easier to cheat. I think the other Bush brother owns, or is invested in, the voting machines that are per-programmed to vote for a Bush. If it looks like a close election, they can get away with it, so they have to buy out the polling companies, which is no problem,just like buying out the Supreme Court. I read somewhere that Jeb was making money off Obamacare and that Roberts was a friend down in Florida in the 2000 election fix. (He was later rewarded with the Supreme Court position). So, money talks...

The media seems to prefer a Jeb/Hillary match-up. The possibility exists that those performing these polls favor Bush and target areas they know will give them the result they want. You mention his name enough times, rig a few early polls in the race and later on it becomes self fulfilling. You then get the desired result you want without even trying.

[rich34]

The Bush numbers are BS imo.. Of course my opinion doesn't matter, but so long as Rand can remain close or in double digits he should be fine. If Ron pulled over 20% in the last primary there's no reason for me to believe that Rand can't do the same. The problem is these polling firms don't start reporting actual results until late October/November because then it's very close to the actual primary/caucus and they don't want to be associated with being very badly wrong in predicting the actual results. I say this because that's about the same time that Ron started rising in the polls. I don't believe he simply started rising in the polls that late, but more likely the pollsters started reporting real results. The problem for Rand and everyone else is Jeb Bush gets the top establishment pick and will therefore always get the first or second place position whether true or not and by the time they start reporting real numbers, his position will become reality because that's what has been pushed into people's minds for the damn time. Christie may help some, but Rand is really going to need to drive out the independent vote in NH. If his turn out the vote effort is strong he certainly has a legit shot at winning. He's just gotta get the constituency that normally don't show up to show up strong, the young people.

[adelina]

Walker sinking fast in NH.