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I agree with this. If you remember in 2012 it wasn't until around November that Ron started climbing in the NH and Iowa polls which to me is when pollsters really start pushing the truth rather than propaganda due to reputation at that point. No legit polling firm wants to predict way off numbers for any of the candidates at that point because they'll go outta business. Well that is unless your commissioned by cnn to artificially create a "surge." In truth we might not see legit numbers at least for the first two states until late October.
At this point - before any debates and while the field is fully crowded - I think showing up anywhere in the top range is good enough. A lot of these polls even being 4th is within the margin of error for 1st.
I've always thought the goal was to just be on the radar at this point before the debates. If he were sitting at 1% or 2% he'd have to work just to get his name out there and fight to get attention.
Being where he is now is enough to get a spot on the debate stage, closer to the center, and speaking time. From there I believe he will be able to grow his support... and others will implode.
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I think it's real. His announcement was positive and resonated with a lot of people. Plus he has the highest name recognition out of everyone. But he's going to fall back to earth real fast when those people realize he's a fraud and a democrat.
No, no, no, no, no. Stop that line of thinking immediately. It is this mentality that cost us any chance of winning in 2012. We crunched the numbers to make our candidate look better in the polls than he actually did. We'll have none of that this time around. Santorum had no chance last time around either. And look how he sweeped in to get votes in Iowa that otherwise would have gone to Paul.
All the media needs to do is blow up a particular candidate as "the new frontrunner" at a key point during the campaign and they will swim in the popular vote, whereas Rand will be neglected. Rand is tied for 4th with 9% in this poll. What that means in a poll is a different story, but that's not what this is about. He's fourth. Which at this point isn't that big a deal, anyway, but it's the truth.
I don't usually neg-rep because I'm not into popularity contests. But no, I'm done with this "oh let's crunch the numbers until our dude is polling first" bullcrap. Neg-rep. And I invite anyone else here to neg-rep anyone and everyone who starts crunching numbers to live in fantasy land. This forum isn't a massive online multiplayer roleplay game. It's a serious site dedicated to the support of liberty friendly politicians.
So far, he seems to be focusing all his rhetoric on immigration. He's basically Jeff Sessions with a bit of attitude and charisma. Immigration is probably one of the most popular issues among the general public, and although a handful of candidates have offered tepid support for immigration changes (Walker going the furthest), nobody has been using the sort of populist rhetoric and candid truth telling that Trump is employing. Basically, he's found an extremely popular issue that the other candidates either aren't talking about or on the wrong side of, and he's running with it. Smart business move from a smart businessman.
Yeah, I agree, they don't have a chance at winning the presidency or even the nomination. But that doesn't mean they, or rather the media through them, can't ruin our progress big time.
People on our side still seem to underestimate the media in a sense. Just because the media has manufactured support or success for a particular candidate, does not mean that this support or success is any less real.
It is true that the support they're manufacturing for Bush is much like the Canadian River--it's a mile wide and an inch deep. Unfortunately, an inch deep is more than enough to get a vote. No wonder we want caucuses instead of primary polls.It actually gives the people in charge of this Republic a chance to think about the clown in a suit to whom they're all set to entrust the free world.
Running with it? Populist rhetoric and candid truth telling? No...just no.
He has been spouting macho nonsense that held up to anyone with a brain and gumption would be shut down, COMPLETELY. If he continues his current rants, he will be shut up during the debates. Calling Mexicans drug traffickers and rapists, imposing tariffs on Mexican imports to pay for a wall when the net immigration into the USA from Mexico last year was ZERO is not just terrible, it shows he has no effing clue what he is talking about. He will be laughed off the stage.
Throw in that his foreign policy makes no sense in the Middle East, one day it's less intervention, the next it's "I would surround them, strike them, and take all of the oil" isn't just superficial--it has no grounding in reality.
We just have to wait for he debates and then people with no platform and no intelligence will be derped out of the polls.
Last edited by RabbitMan; 06-25-2015 at 10:52 AM.
"Freedom, then Pizza!" - Oklahoma State GOP Convention 5/11/2012
Bush 15% Trump 11%? I'm about to start raging
Last edited by DevilsAdvocate; 06-28-2015 at 12:15 AM.
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