New WSJ/NBC poll: 45% of Republicans won't consider voting for Rand Paul, 75% for Jeb

[YouKnowNothing]

Anyone think Rand's Patriot Act filibuster backfired on him? I haven't seen any positive coverage on him for weeks.

More Republicans are willing to consider voting for Jeb Bush than for any other candidate, according to a newly-released NBC/Wall Street Journal poll that is great news for the recently announced president contender.According to the poll, 75 percent of likely Republican primary voters could see themselves backing Bush, while just 22 percent say they cannot, a net difference of +53. The only Republican performing as well is Marco Rubio, whom 74 percent of voters say they could support compared to just 15 percent who say they could not (a net of +59).

The two are way ahead of the pack when it comes to the gap between potential supporters and surefire opponents. Coming in third is Scott Walker, with 57 percent saying they would consider him and 19 percent saying they wouldn’t, a net of +38. Behind him are Mike Huckabee (+38), Ben Carson (+29), Rick Perry (+22), and Ted Cruz (+20). Notably, Rand Paul is a very polarizing candidate.

Bush also finished on top when voters were asked to name their current first choice, with 22 percent naming him. Walker finished second with 17 percent support, and Rubio took third with 14 percent.

The least popular Republican candidates according to the poll are John Kasich, Chris Christie, Lindsey Graham and Donald Trump, who all finished in the negatives; more voters said they definitely would vote against them than said they would consider backing them. Christie and Trump are particularly distasteful to Republicans, with 55 and 66 percent of voters, respectively, saying they would not consider voting for them. None of these candidates attracted more than 4 percent support as a first choice.

Bush’s numbers represent a big surge for him since last March, when a similar poll showed him with a 49-42 split, for a net of only +7. Rubio has also seen a big boost, rising from a +30 net back in March.
On the other hand, Rand Paul’s potential support is declining as he becomes one of the most polarizing figures in the 2016 race. While he’s performing respectably in recent polls, 45 percent of Republicans say they won’t consider voting for him, and just 49 percent say they will (+4).

The poll was conducted from June 14-18, the exact time period leading up to and following Bush’s announcement. As a result, it’s possible Bush received an announcement boost similar to that experienced by presidential candidates after their party’s convention.

The poll used a sample of 236 registered Republican voters who planned to vote in a primary, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 6.5 percentage points.

http://dailycaller.com/2015/06/22/ar...p-to-jeb-bush/

[kahless]

The poll used a sample of 236 registered Republican voters who planned to vote in a primary

236 people and we are supposed to take them seriously, what a scam. No doubt NBC/WSJ staffers ensured it was stacked in favor of the anointed one - Jeb Bush.

[jllundqu]

Sickening...

How this country, namely Repubs, could consider putting that friggin RINO clown in office is simply beyond me...

We get what we deserve as a country...

<goes back to his bunker>

[hells_unicorn]

I'm waiting for the debates, if come Iowa these numbers are proven to be accurate, then I'll start getting depressed.

[YouKnowNothing]

236 people and we are supposed to take them seriously, what a scam. No doubt NBC/WSJ staffers ensured it was stacked in favor of the anointed one - Jeb Bush.

I hate when you guys discount polls because of this. If you ever taken a statistic class before you would know that most polls have sample sizes below 1000. That's why you have to take the margin of error into account.

[Kotin]

236 people and we are supposed to take them seriously, what a scam. No doubt NBC/WSJ staffers ensured it was stacked in favor of the anointed one - Jeb Bush.

Agreed that sample size is laughable

And yeah I've taken stats and smaller sample size is always worse especially for these types of polls.

[Kotin]

Also next time you create a sock puppet account, maybe don't give away the fact that you "hate when you guys do this" as this is a dead giveaway that you didn't really join in May

As it stands, you, 56ktarget, are on a temporary ban for low value posting and antagonizing other members.. So this account is being perma banned. Come back when you are welcomed back or don't come back at all.

[TheTexan]

Agreed that sample size is laughable

And yeah I've taken stats and smaller sample size is always worse especially for these types of polls.

Ya with that kind of sample size you can only expect like +-3% so clearly we need bigger sample size to determine where exactly Rand stands amongst the low performers in this poll

[squirl22]

Polls putting Jeb in the lead and putting Rand down are all bought and paid for by the Bush Crime Family. I would ignore them.

[Rudeman]

How many times is the same poll going to be posted?

[rich34]

This is the kind of BS I just mentioned in another post. I suppose it's time for them to start using blatant BS polls to start influencing public opinion. Anyone can go out there and look on youtube as to how they did Ron in their polling by simply not including him at all, or including him and either giving votes for him to other people or not recording them at all. With this poll for instance it's one thing to believe Rand has that low of a ceiling/potential for support, but to believe that Jeb Bush has that kind of ceiling of support is a joke!! For me seeing these two factors caused me to call BS to their numbers from the start. Poll numbers is the best tool they have for influencing public opinion and how to combat this is pretty much impossible. Their going to inflate Jeb Bush the whole damn time, along with their other preferred candidates, throw in the flavor of the month candidates to make it look a little real while Rand will be played as "never getting any traction" at least until 1 to 1 1/2 months before the election of said state because at that time pollsters will be telling the damn truth because they never want to be viewed as incompetent, hence they lose money. I'd say at that time some phoney cnn/fox news poll will show someone surging as they did Santorum to prevent Rand from winning or give the illusion that he lost due to some candidate coming from no where to siphon away votes. Rand has literally gottta keep injecting himself into the conversion as he did apparently today by keeping his name in the news cycle.. Perception is the hardest thing to fight because everyone wants to vote for a "winner." Combating this is literally impossible, at least I have no idea in how to fight this BS. Anyone that thinks Jeb Bush has that high of a ceiling is smoking something good...

[KingNothing]

I've yet to meet one person who would vote for anyone named Bush, ever again. I've met people who would vote for a Clinton, but I try to stay away from them.

Anyway, my point is, this poll doesn't matter.

[rich34]

Anyone think Rand's Patriot Act filibuster backfired on him? I haven't seen any positive coverage on him for weeks.


http://dailycaller.com/2015/06/22/ar...p-to-jeb-bush/

Oh and to answer the question more directly, maybe a little, but not to the level of this kind of BS! If anyone thinks I'm joking just go out there on youtube or google and search for the BS tactics they used against Ron to project his level of support. For Ron the polls didn't get real until about a month to a month in a half outside of the primary or caucus for said particular state. Until then, they're going to manipulate the level of support for their preferred candidate "Jeb Bush" the whole damn time until they achieve the desired results. This is the reality and the straight bull $#@! that Rand is up against. For anyone that don't believe this just go back and search youtube or google for the kinds of manipulation tactics in the polls they used against Ron. I bring this up because everyone needs to know about this and start looking for the irregularities. Hell, you can't make this kind of BS up. It's obvious just looking at the "236 registered republicans" who participated in this poll, are you serious?? 236 people? Then look at how hard the media is pushing it without ever telling anyone that this poll has a huge potential for being inaccurate due to the low number of participants. Oh but they're not doing that they're pushing it as truth without even mentioning the number of those that were asked. Pushing fake ass polling like this is by far the best method they have for influencing public opinion in their favor. How does Team Rand combat this? I have no idea..

[rich34]

I've yet to meet one person who would vote for anyone named Bush, ever again. I've met people who would vote for a Clinton, but I try to stay away from them.

Anyway, my point is, this poll doesn't matter.

You're right, this one poll doesn't matter. BUT they'll keep pushing the same fake ass poll numbers until it literally has an effect on public opinion in their favor. So the accumulation of BS polls that will be coming down the pike WILL matter. I always thought when Ron ran the last time if he would have been able to release his own legit polls during the run up to the election to counter the fake ass polls being put out by the establishment.

[LatinsforPaul]

Also next time you create a sock puppet account, maybe don't give away the fact that you "hate when you guys do this" as this is a dead giveaway that you didn't really join in May

As it stands, you, 56ktarget, are on a temporary ban for low value posting and antagonizing other members.. So this account is being perma banned. Come back when you are welcomed back or don't come back at all.

Thank you. I wish you can do the same for Yesimaliberal.

[69360]

They say they won't vote for a candidate now, but every single general election they vote for whoever has the R next to their name.

I actually will be guilty of that this time around. I'm voting for whoever wins the GOP primary. I hate the Clintons enough to vote for the 3rd shrub.

[angelatc]

49 percent say they will (+4).

I will be estatic the day that a candidate that I support captures 49% of the votes in a primary race.

[Peace&Freedom]

Agreed that sample size is laughable

And yeah I've taken stats and smaller sample size is always worse especially for these types of polls.

I used to work at the Harris poll, and found the standard minimum sample for a survey was 900-1000, not a pitiful 236 (which reminds one of the couple hundred same used in Iowa to manufacture the "surge" for Santorum in January 2012). Add to that the fact that not all poll results are ever published, as by contract only the ones the poll sponsor wants to see disclosed, get reported. Results that are more favorable to Rand may often be getting left on the cutting room floor.

[mz10]

236 registered Republicans. That's the key. Registered Republicans tend to be more establishment-minded, conservative independents tend to be more anti-establishment. Hence the numbers in this poll.

Don't think that isn't intentional. They know what they're doing.

[tangent4ronpaul]

236 registered Republicans. That's the key. Registered Republicans tend to be more establishment-minded, conservative independents tend to be more anti-establishment. Hence the numbers in this poll.

Don't think that isn't intentional. They know what they're doing.

anyone know which primaries independents can vote in? I remember at least a few states allowed that.

-t

[mz10]

anyone know which primaries independents can vote in? I remember at least a few states allowed that.

-t

I think most states are open. Massachusetts is for sure, don't know about the rest.

[dannno]

You have to wonder if it isn't 236 registered Republicans who happen to be on the Jeb Bush mailing list.

[DevilsAdvocate]

Sometimes I think the reason the Republican field is so big this year is to divide the vote so much that Jeb Bush can end up getting the nomination

[opinionatedfool]

236 people and we are supposed to take them seriously, what a scam. No doubt NBC/WSJ staffers ensured it was stacked in favor of the anointed one - Jeb Bush.

What a joke. They just stop when they get the numbers they want... especially with so many in the race, the sample size should be much larger for any sense of accuracy.

[Galileo Galilei]

Anyone think Rand's Patriot Act filibuster backfired on him? I haven't seen any positive coverage on him for weeks.


http://dailycaller.com/2015/06/22/ar...p-to-jeb-bush/

Just an FYI to everyone out there, this is a non-standard poll question. The wording is causing some people who THINK Bush might get the GOP nomination to answer yes. Far fewer think Rand will get the nomination.

Also, they only polled 236 people, way too low.

It is also unclear who they define as a republican voter. Because an independent who leans GOP would react to this question differently than a regular GOP primary voter.

[rich34]

Sometimes I think the reason the Republican field is so big this year is to divide the vote so much that Jeb Bush can end up getting the nomination

Sure makes you wonder, I've also wondered what their strategy is by pushing so many to run because it seems going by history it's harder to control the results with multiple parties/candidates which really has me thinking that they could be covering all the bases in case there's a brokered convention. You'd have to think after seeing the last two elections and more particular how much effort campaign for liberty has put into learning/teaching supporters how to play the delegate race they know Rand is going to have a grassroots organization they'll be forced to reckon with. Since none of these other candidates truly generates legit grassroots support it would seem by loading the field and gathering as many establishment delegates as possible to band together when the time comes could be how they see their path to success against Rand. But who knows really, all speculation.

[Peace&Freedom]

Sure makes you wonder, I've also wondered what their strategy is by pushing so many to run because it seems going by history it's harder to control the results with multiple parties/candidates which really has me thinking that they could be covering all the bases in case there's a brokered convention.

I still go by the 'bury Rand' theory: Why do you think there are so many heavy-hitter Republican candidates in the race? They can tell just as much as we can that the primary race is over-populated. The point was to crowd Rand out, then bury him in the bottom half of the field by soft blacking out those lower tier candidates from the debates. Only Rand has stayed in the upper half of the field, thus depriving them of cover in excluding him.

[anaconda]

Sickening...

How this country, namely Repubs, could consider putting that friggin RINO clown in office is simply beyond me...

We get what we deserve as a country...

<goes back to his bunker>

It might be time for Rand to inform the donor class through back channels that unless they pull their heads out of their asses that he will run Libertarian or Independent. We'll see how the Kochs, the RNC, Sheldon Adelson, Fox News, or Larry Ellison like that.

[RonPaulMall]

Anyone think Rand's Patriot Act filibuster backfired on him? I haven't seen any positive coverage on him for weeks.

It isn't the Patriot Act stuff. I have a crap ton of "regular" Republican friends and family in North Carolina and while some are mildly supportive of Rand on it, the bulk honestly don't care. It isn't an issue that gets them fired up. The problem I've had with Rand over the past year or so is he's offering me nothing whatsoever to work with in terms of convincing my folks to vote for him. He hasn't really spearheaded any big time Conservative causes like he was doing his first couple years in office, and all the Sharpton BS and Republican brand trashing he does turns them off.

Rand's position in the polls right now are pretty much where you'd expect and where he deserves to be. If he wants to improve his position, at some point he's going to have to start engaging the Republican base and giving them a reason to support him. And I hope he starts doing it soon.

[Mr.NoSmile]

So is this it? Dismiss any sort of poll where Paul isn't at the or polling near the top? Come up with every single theory and explanation in the world for the results, versus accepting any poll where Paul is in the lead as 'We got this guys'?