New Hampshire poll: Trump surging

[YesI'mALiberal]

NH GOP Poll Shows Bush the Early Leader, While Trump Advances


June 23, 2015

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (14 percent) leads businessman Donald Trump (11 percent) in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary contest, according to a poll from the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
With the primary seven months away, the rest of the crowded GOP field remains in single digits, with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 8 percent; Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) 7 percent; retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, 6 percent; and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, 5 percent. Following closely behind Christie were Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas); and businesswoman Carly Fiorina, who were tied at 4 percent each. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Ohio Gov. John Kasich were tied at 2 percent, while six other candidates, including former New York Gov. George Pataki, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), and former Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich combined for 4 percent. A significant 29 percent were undecided.

more: https://www.suffolk.edu/news/60149.php

[Warlord]

In New Hampshire:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/0...-suffolk-poll/

The poll has Rand Paul at 4%. I find that highly suspicious

[jj-]

The less interventionists have Trump and Rand. The pro-borders have Cruz (if by perception) and Trump. So Trump I think takes away from both Paul and Cruz.

[LawnWake]

It'll die down, his hair can't handle the surge.

[William Tell]

Republicans sure can be stupid, I see lots of them defending Trumps past support for Clinton's because essentially 'he's rich and he has to give them money'.

They don't have any respect for poor Clinton supporters though, lol.

I think all Clinton supporters are the same though.

[kbs021]

I think trump helps us in Iowa and NH. Once his stance on guns gets brought up, people won't vote for him just because he sounds tough on mexico. I think he is going to eventually be shown to be more establishment which shouldn't dilute Rand's vote. I think he will hurt walker, cruz, etc. much much more.

[libertyplz]

Dave Weigel isn't too convinced either

Either way, likely just a temp. bump then he will start trending back towards irrelevance.

[acptulsa]

Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely Republican Primary voters was conducted between June 18 and June 22, 2015, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were planning to vote in the Republican presidential primary. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline (65 percent) and cell phones (35 percent) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar open Republican primaries in past elections. New Hampshire’s 10 counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document which follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10738.php

[juleswin]

The less interventionists have Trump and Rand. The pro-borders have Cruz (if by perception) and Trump. So Trump I think takes away from both Paul and Cruz.

We seriously need some way to tell when someone is using sarcasm on this site, maybe a sarcasm emojin tag. I get confused with posts like this. Is he serious or is he just using sarcasm? I really cant tell.

[luctor-et-emergo]

http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10738.php

Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult.

Odd, isn't Rand doing well among younger people ?

[luctor-et-emergo]

(copied this post (my post) from a duplicate thread)

http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10738.php

Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult.

Odd, isn't Rand doing well among younger people ?

[LatinsforPaul]

We seriously need some way to tell when someone is using sarcasm on this site, maybe a sarcasm emojin tag. I get confused with posts like this. Is he serious or is he just using sarcasm? I really cant tell.

No, he's serious because he has been spamming it all over the forums.

[LatinsforPaul]

more: https://www.suffolk.edu/news/60149.php

Great news for your Hillary.

[YesI'mALiberal]

Odd, isn't Rand doing well among younger people ?

Not really. Rand has never done better with young people, despite expectations. It's obvious why - young folks are flocking to Bernie.

[juleswin]

Not really. Rand has never done better with young people, despite expectations. It's obvious why - young folks are flocking to Bernie.

But we are talking about household that say they would vote in the republican primaries. The has the issue of NSA cornered which young people supposedly care about. I hate to be one to cheer a poll when I like the result and dismiss it when I don't like the result. But I think this poll got it wrong. Maybe it was bad sampling but something is off about it

[Sola_Fide]

Not really. Rand has never done better with young people, despite expectations. It's obvious why - young folks are flocking to Bernie.

Never? In your dreams dude. Hillary is going to crush Bernie like a cockroach. Rand will continue to do well with younger people.

[YesI'mALiberal]

Never? In your dreams dude. Hillary is going to crush Bernie like a cockroach. Rand will continue to do well with younger people.

I never said anything about Bernie winning - you must have dreamed that. But he will - and is - attract huge adoring and enthusiastic crowds of mainly young people *, but will get trounced in the elections. Like Ron Paul.



* including first time voters who, because of Bernie, will tell pollsters they're not going to vote in the GOP primary and therefore not show up in polls of GOP voters, juleswin

[juleswin]

Never? In your dreams dude. Hillary is going to crush Bernie like a cockroach. Rand will continue to do well with younger people.

I think the last poll that came out had Hillary at 75% and Bernie at 17%. Ron Paul did 100x better than him in a very crowded republican primary. Bernie unlike Paul have less than 0 chance of winning and when he loses, he will concede immediately and support the very corporatist big govt, big war candidate in Hillary. Bernie is bring the disaffected in for slaughter. He is the pied piper for the mainstream Democratic Party

[YesI'mALiberal]

Rand will continue to do well with younger people.

So far, Paul isn’t doing much better among young voters than the Republican nominee in 2012, Mitt Romney, or than Chris Christie, the New Jersey governor, is currently doing.

Since the beginning of the year, there have been eight live-interviewnational polls that detail results among young voters (ages 18 to 29 or 18 to 34), and matched Paul against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Together, these polls give us the views of more than 1,000 young voters. The same polls matched Clinton against Christie. The surveys show that young voters don’t see any difference between Paul and other Republican politicians.

more here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/t...g-voters-myth/

[Sola_Fide]

more here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/t...g-voters-myth/

There's no doubt that liberalism and socialism are very popular with younger people, mostly because they are idiots that don't know the first thing about economics, business, or life itself. Some people grow up and unlearn their state-worship, but many don't.

[Wilf]

There's no doubt that liberalism and socialism are very popular with younger people, mostly because they are idiots that don't know the first thing about economics, business, or life itself. Some people grow up and unlearn their state-worship, but many don't.

Couldn't you say the samething about seniors

[YesI'mALiberal]

p.s.

The Berniementum is real.


Bernie Sanders, the self-described Vermont socialist whose ragtag presidential campaign is drawing overflow crowds across the country, is within shouting distance of Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, according to a new Suffolk University poll of Granite State Democrats.

The poll of 500 likely Democratic voters found Mrs. Clinton has but a 10-percentage point lead over Mr. Sanders, 41% to 31%. The survey is the first public poll showing Mr. Sanders – or anyone else – within 10 points of Mrs. Clinton in New Hampshire since 2016 polling began early last year. In early May, a Bloomberg/St. Anselm Collegepoll gave Mrs. Clinton a 44-point lead over Mr. Sanders.

more: http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/0...n-in-n-h-poll/

Hmmm. Bernie surges while Paul drops. Hmmm.

Time for one of you to discern that Bernie is a Bush/Rove/RNC plant to steal the election from Rand Paul.

[Sola_Fide]

Couldn't you say the samething about seniors

Yeah. It seems like seniors and young people are the ones who have the same kind of inclinations toward statism. But I think for different reasons.

[Sola_Fide]

p.s.



more: http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/0...n-in-n-h-poll/

Hmmm. Bernie surges while Paul drops. Hmmm.

Time for one of you to discern that Bernie is a Bush/Rove/RNC plant to steal the election from Rand Paul.

What about Bernie Sanders make you excited? Is it when he blocked Audit The Fed?

[Rudeman]

p.s.



more: http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/0...n-in-n-h-poll/

Hmmm. Bernie surges while Paul drops. Hmmm.

Time for one of you to discern that Bernie is a Bush/Rove/RNC plant to steal the election from Rand Paul.

Posting a poll that is a week old, what happened to that other poll you were bragging about? You know the one where Hillary was beating Bernie by 60%. Hmmm

[YesI'mALiberal]

What about Bernie Sanders make you excited? Is it when he blocked Audit The Fed?

I'm not terribly excited about him, but I do acknowledge that he is THE #1 phenom in politics right now. (Okay, Trump has moved up to 1A).

I do like many of his positions - like Rand Paul - but I see them as entirely unrealistic. Unlike Rand Paul, Bernie does seem to know his best bet is to get things done incrementally in Congress instead of continually going all-or-nothing.

As for Audit The Fed specifically, it's no more an "audit" than the Freedom Act was about "freedom." There are already extensive financial audits of the Fed's activities; anything they can hide from those audits won't be found by one more. No, Audit The Fed is about exposing their deliberations to partisan politics - which simply shouldn't be done. And Ron Paul, at least, made no secret of the fact that it was intended to be the first step towards doing away with the Fed. Again, I oppose that. Keep your gold standard.

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

Trump's surge is the typical announcement surge combined with high name I.D. I'm not fully convinced he will go through with a run. But, if he does, his mouth will do him in. There's a reason for these numbers:

"...he remains the most disliked GOP candidate in the field. Suffolk found he is the only GOP candidate with a net unfavorable rating in New Hampshire — 37% of those surveyed had a favorable opinion of Mr. Trump, compared to 49% who had an unfavorable view."

[YesI'mALiberal]

Posting a poll that is a week old, what happened to that other poll you were bragging about? You know the one where Hillary was beating Bernie by 60%. Hmmm

This poll is from the same pollsters - Suffolk University - and uses the same methodology as the current poll in this thread. I mention it as a clue as to where Paul's NH support has gone.

As for that other poll (I assume you mean the WSJ/NBC one), it's national, not New Hampshire. And it's still here somewhere. If you want to discuss it, the thread should still be right near the top of this subforum.

[Sola_Fide]

I'm not terribly excited about him, but I do acknowledge that he is THE #1 phenom in politics right now. (Okay, Trump has moved up to 1A).

I do like many of his positions - like Rand Paul - but I see them as entirely unrealistic. Unlike Rand Paul, Bernie does seem to know his best bet is to get things done incrementally in Congress instead of continually going all-or-nothing.

You think Rand is one of those "all or nothing" candidates? Wow.

As for Audit The Fed specifically, it's no more an "audit" than the Freedom Act was about "freedom." There are already extensive financial audits of the Fed's activities; anything they can hide from those audits won't be found by one more. No, Audit The Fed is about exposing their deliberations to partisan politics - which simply shouldn't be done. And Ron Paul, at least, made no secret of the fact that it was intended to be the first step towards doing away with the Fed. Again, I oppose that. Keep your gold standard.

Wow.

[69360]

Did Trump even file FEC paperwork yet? I can't imagine he is a serious candidate or will even be in the race in NH.