Barron's Cover Story has Rand in Top Tier, but thinks he is "isolationist libertarian rerun"

[NACBA]

Loath to be outdone by Fox’s winnowing, we’ve narrowed the field further, to seven we think will still be in the running for the nomination next March, after 57% of the 2,470 GOP delegates have been selected. They include Jeb Bush, a former two-term Florida governor who hasn’t campaigned since 2002, and who, we are told, will try branding himself merely as “Jeb”; former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who had a second career on Fox News; and first-term Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, a conservative hero noted for his debating skill and his support from the conservative billionaire Koch brothers.

Also in the running are crusty two-term Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who also spent 18 years in Congress and is the most experienced candidate; first-term Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, an isolationist libertarian rerun of his father, former Rep. Ron Paul; and first-term Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, the most charismatic candidate and a brilliant campaigner, who has billionaire Miami auto dealer Norman Braman in his camp.

http://online.barrons.com/articles/w...hp_highlight_1

[randomname]

Mark your calendar: The most talked-about talent competition since Major Bowes Original Amateur Hour will be broadcast Aug. 6 on Fox News, from the new entertainment capital of the world, Cleveland. Ten Republican presidential contenders -- those ranked highest in the five most recent national polls prior to the event -- out of a possible field of 19, at last count, will share the stage. They'll all be vying for the hearts of an electorate that pollsters contend is already in love with probable Democrat standard-bearer Hillary Clinton.

The Fox extravaganza is more likely to be a sound-bite marathon than a debate. The selection process will bruise at least nine considerable egos. After all, these presidential hopefuls are not a collection of log-splitting country bumpkins. The possible contenders include at least five sitting governors, five former governors, four sitting senators, one former senator, a former Fortune 500 CEO, and a brain surgeon.


From left: Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, Scott Walker. Illustration: Scott Pollack for Barron's
They are entering the race now, more than a year ahead of the Republican convention, to raise cash, set up organizations, and meet primary deadlines.

Loath to be outdone by Fox's winnowing, we've narrowed the field further, to seven we think will still be in the running for the nomination next March, after 57% of the 2,470 GOP delegates have been selected. They include Jeb Bush, a former two-term Florida governor who hasn't campaigned since 2002, and who, we are told, will try branding himself merely as “Jeb”; former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who had a second career on Fox News; and first-term Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, a conservative hero noted for his debating skill and his support from the conservative billionaire Koch brothers.

Also in the running are crusty two-term Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who also spent 18 years in Congress and is the most experienced candidate; first-term Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, an isolationist libertarian rerun of his father, former Rep. Ron Paul; and first-term Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, the most charismatic candidate and a brilliant campaigner, who has billionaire Miami auto dealer Norman Braman in his camp.

And last but far from least is two-term Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, whose tax cutting and confrontations with unions has made him a conservative darling and gives him special advantages in Iowa, home of the first competitive event on the GOP calendar, in January.

The rest of the field, in our opinion, is unlikely to break out nationally, despite some ardent followers. Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, the only woman candidate, has never held elective office and lost her bid for Democrat Barbara Boxer's California Senate seat in 2010. It's a similar story for Dr. Ben Carson, the only African-American in the contest, who is polling well, but also has never held elective office. Sen. Lindsey Graham is threatening to put boots on the ground in Iraq to fight the Islamic State, a nonstarter with much of the national electorate. And who can forget how former Texas Gov. Rick Perry made a fool of himself the last time he ran for president?

Carson and Paul lead our also-ran pack in national polls, each at 9.2%, according to Real Clear Politics. Perry is at 2.7%, Fiorina at 1.6%, and Graham at 1.3%. Though New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and real estate developer Donald Trump are at 4.8% and 4%, respectively, they have little chance of making it to the final heat.

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This field of seven will be running in a pack to the end. Rubio and Cruz in particular will have staying power, despite shallow resumes: They are both backed by politically interested billionaires.

Preacher-turned-Arkansas governor-turned-Fox News pundit Mike Huckabee and Kentucky's Rand Paul -- who may appear to be minor characters in the GOP election drama -- both boast considerable fringe appeal and could go all the way to the convention by virtue of crucial changes in the GOP's primary rules.

For a candidate to have his name put up for nomination, he or she must control the majority of delegates in eight states, not five, as had been the case before a rule change in 2012. Because of the sheer size of the GOP field, it's doubtful that any one candidate will satisfy the eight-state threshold come July. Why? So far, winner-take-all primaries exist in only the District of Columbia and eight states: Florida, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Arizona, California, Wisconsin, and Indiana. The remaining 42 states and five US territories award delegates in proportion to a candidate's vote count.

Fringe candidates, such as Huckabee and Paul, who enjoy support from two sizable parts of the GOP base -- the religious right and the Tea Party -- likely will win enough delegates to carry them into the GOP convention in Cleveland. Because it will be so difficult for a single candidate to win a majority of candidates in eight or more states, 2016 well could see the first brokered GOP political convention since 1948. That's when candidates seeking the nomination court one another's delegates in an attempt to get a majority to support them and put themselves over the top.

ALMOST ANY OF THE CANDIDATES would be a welcome palliative for the country's anemic economy. Every one of them supports a robust free market and is opposed to burdensome regulation. Our best guess is that at the GOP convention in July, the battle will come down to Bush and dark horse Kasich, with Rubio as either ticket's vice presidential pick. Current polls suggest that Rubio could nab the nomination. But political handicapper Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia, publisher of the widely read Sabato's Crystal Ball Website, says that pre-Labor Day polls typically are inaccurate, because the populace doesn't tune into politics until September.

Kasich, once he declares, will quickly rise to the top of the GOP field. He's currently polling at 2%, compared with 13.2% for Bush, 12.5% for Walker, and 12% for Rubio. But he's the one candidate Hillary Clinton should fear because his unusual, unscripted style gives him appeal across all demographic groups.

Kasich is also unafraid of the GOP's wacky far right, which gives him curb appeal among independent voters. He used Obamacare to expand his state's Medicaid coverage, arguing that he was putting federal tax dollars back into Ohioans' pockets. In 2014, the tax-and-budget cutter was elected to a second term by a 30-point margin. He even swept counties that voted heavily for Barack Obama. He's a committed conservative without the steamroller zealotry of a Cruz or a Paul. He opposes big government, and he doesn't much like big business, either. When Kasich ran for president in 2000, he railed against corporate welfare in the tax system. And he has opposed the far right's hard line against illegal immigrants.

Kasich's conservative fiscal credentials are strong. He turned Ohio's $8 billion budget deficit into an $800 million surplus. In doing that, he cut income taxes and government spending, while raising sales taxes to make up for revenue shortfalls. His goal is to eliminate Ohio's personal income tax, which is now at a median of 3.5%, down about one percentage point since Kasich took office. Demonstrating his commitment to society's underdogs, he set aside 20% of the money for a $267 million highway-construction project in Cleveland for minority and disadvantaged businesses. At least 20% of the roadway's workers must be residents of Cleveland wards adjacent to the project, many of which are impoverished areas.

JEB BUSH , the former governor of Florida, is one of the most easily recognizable names in the field -- a blessing and a curse. His brother George W. left office as a highly unpopular president among Republicans and Democrats, for a litany of reasons. Focus groups and polls in early primary and caucus states like Iowa show that the Bush name remains radioactive, which is why he's likely to emphasize the “Jeb” brand when announcing his candidacy on June 15.

Bush has a Mexican wife and speaks Spanish -- a winning combination in a nation that has the fifth-largest number of Spanish speakers in the world. He proved in Florida that he's a fiscal conservative by cutting taxes by $19 billion, although he increased spending by 45%. He's for a simplified tax system with few loopholes; a rollback of some of Obama's far-reaching regulations, including Dodd-Frank; greater oil and gas production; an immigration program that sets the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the country on a path to “earned legal status”; and closer economic ties with China.

Bush, who will benefit from the Bush fund-raising machine developed by his father and brother, is even-tempered and charming, and could very well be the last man standing if he debates well against Kasich and Rubio.

One GOP operative who is officially backing another candidate told Barron’s that the long primary contest is “Rubio's to lose.” Handsome and charismatic, Rubio slaughtered former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, a more experienced candidate, in the battle for his current Senate seat. Rubio is aware that the post-Obama electorate will be wary of inexperienced senators. He is trying to parry this sentiment with detailed proposals on taxes, health care, and energy.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is a favorite in neighboring Iowa, site of the first big primary contest. A victory there could raise his profile. Though he's well-known in the Midwest, where a GOP candidate must have strong support for a serious White House bid, he's not as well-known elsewhere. This tax-cutting, union-fighting preacher's son is popular among both evangelical Christians and Tea Party fiscal conservatives.

HUCKABEE, CRUZ, AND PAUL are sideshow acts, given prominence, as we noted, by the new rules of the GOP primary. Only Huckabee has experience as a governor. His record in Arkansas from 1996 through 2007 was mixed, however. He came into office intending to cut taxes but ended up raising them after the state's supreme court mandated higher spending for education. The party's right wing thinks he was too accommodating when working on compromises with Democratic legislators.

In any event, Huckabee showed well in the 2008 primaries, remaining in contention for several months before it became apparent that John McCain would trounce him in Texas. He withdrew at that point. Having appeared on Fox News talk shows from 2008 until earlier this year, he's perceived more as an entertainer than a politician, which will hurt him.

Jeb versus Kasich is the real race, and it's too early to declare the winner.

[randomname]

Fair analysis. Kasich will be a player for sure (and has good chance of winning this thing).

Not only did they call Paul "isolationist libertarian rerun", they also called him "fringe" (twice), "also-ran", "minor character", "steamroller zealot" and a "sideshow act".

LOL.

[randomname]

Summary of the article:

Huckabee and Paul are fringe candidates
Huckabee and Paul have fringe appeal
Carson and Paul are also-rans
Huckabee, Cruz and Paul are sideshow acts
Cruz and Paul are steamroller zealots
Kasich is awesome
It will be Jeb+Rubio or Kasich+Rubio

[Cleaner44]

Jim McTague is a full blown establishment writer from DC. His prediction that Kasich will vault to the top rank of the GOP field is laughable.

[randomname]

Jim McTague is a full blown establishment writer from DC. His prediction that Kasich will vault to the top rank of the GOP field is laughable.

Well he loves making fun of Ron for being a goldbug

http://online.barrons.com/articles/S...OL_hpp_popview

[eleganz]

This is retarded, kill the link, don't help drive traffic and ad money to an idiot, please.

Its literally a piece where some egomaniac is trying to be different from other writers by polishing his pick and destroying everyone else.

Oh and he thinks Marco Rubio is the most charismatic candidate....

[Jan2017]

This is retarded, kill the link, don't help drive traffic and ad money to an idiot, please.

Its literally a piece where some egomaniac is trying to be different from other writers by polishing his pick and destroying everyone else.

Oh and he thinks Marco Rubio is the most charismatic candidate....

he is after all the official spokesperson of the GOP response - speaking for the "51%" (hopefully in their dreams)



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[Massachusetts]

I will say this. If Kasich can find his way into the debates, he presents well enough to make a huge jump in the polls. I would bet money he will be one of the final five.