UPDATE (5/8/2015):
A large number of people have accused Game Changer PAC of lying about the results, Of making the whole thing up as a hit piece against Jeb Bush, Of not using a random sample for our poll, et cetera ad nauseam.
This update is to clarify some of those misconceptions.
The plain and simple truth is that it was a scientific poll, open to all likely Republican Primary voters. The respondents had to answer YES to the question “Are you likely to vote in the Republican Presidential Primaries” in order to be counted.
There were no incentives to be part of the poll and there were no restrictions such as liking our facebook page, following us on twitter, or being subscribed to our newsletter.
We took great pains when crafting the poll to be fully impartial and not show favoritism to ANY candidate over another. No candidates’ names were listed as part of the text of a question, and in answer sections that listed candidates’ names, as possible answers, all candidates were listed in alphabetical order.
The question “SELECT THE CANDIDATES -IF ANY- , THAT, IF THEY BECAME THE NOMINEE, WOULD CAUSE YOU TO NOT VOTE IN THE 2016 GENERAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.” was an optional question that respondents were not required to answer.
We included this question because of what we saw in the 2014 California Gubernatorial Election. In that election you had 3 main candidates.
Jerry Brown (Democratic incumbent)
Neel Kashkari (“Establishment” Republican candidate)
Tim Donnelly (“Tea Party” Republican candidate)
Kashkari was seen by many Tea Party Republicans as more liberal than Brown due to his management of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Donnelly was a founding member of the “Minute Men” civilian border patrol and an unabashed right winger. Kashkari was a late entry, to replace Able Maldonado who dropped out, with a lot of money behind him.
Because of Kashkari’s perceived liberalism many far right Republicans publicly stated that they would skip the General Election if Donnelly wasn’t the nominee -Since write-ins aren’t allowed in partisan General Elections in California due to Prop 14.
Kashkari went on to beat Donnelly in the Primary and then those who said that they wouldn’t vote in the general, didn’t. The 2014 California Gubernatorial General Election had a turnout rate of 21.4% which was not only a record low but less than half of the turn out seen in the 2010 midterms.
We were very surprised by the result of the poll, which is why we wrote about it. If a different candidate had seen a similar result then it would be their name in the title of this article, not Jeb Bush’s.
Game Changer PAC has not endorsed or backed any Current or Potential 2016 Presidential Candidate from ANY political party.
We understand that this is not a favorable poll result for Jeb Bush. We understand why so many have reservations about believing the results. However, those were the results.
Thank you for reading.
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