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Thread: Personal Spending Up As Consumer Sentiment Hits 10-Year High

  1. #1

    Personal Spending Up As Consumer Sentiment Hits 10-Year High

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/clareoco...-10-year-high/

    Lower gas prices have let consumers spend more money on other purchases which is good for the economy and jobs. Total spending increase was not that much though.

    The long-awaited start of spring and a reprieve from winter’s frigid weather saw Americans heading back to the shops, according to a monthly report released Thursday by the Commerce Department.

    Consumer spending was up 0.4% for the month of March to $53.4 billion, the strongest gain since November and an improvement from February’s 0.2% uptick. This modest recovery follows a dip in personal spending in December and January, much of it attributable to low temperatures.

    This result comes as consumer sentiment hit a ten-year high, according to a monthly study by the University of Michigan’s Survey Research Center.

    Consumer optimism reached a ten-year peak of 95.5 in the first quarter of 2015 — its highest level since the third quarter of 2004.

    American shoppers’ sentiments have been bolstered by lower gas prices at the beginning of the quarter as well as falling unemployment claims, which hit a 15-year low in the third week of April according to the Labor Department.

    “The harsh winter weather and the small rebound in gas prices caused some slippage in consumer confidence since the start of the year,” said Richard Curtin, chief economist behind the University of Michigan study.

    “Nonetheless, expanding job opportunities as well as more favorable wage gains have meant that consumer spending will strongly rebound during the balance of the year.”
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 05-01-2015 at 01:32 PM.



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  3. #2
    Got a link to what exactly the "consumer sentiment" index/measure is?
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Got a link to what exactly the "consumer sentiment" index/measure is?
    Link to their site: http://press.sca.isr.umich.edu/press/about_survey

    That one is different from the Consumer Confidence Survey by the Conference Board which was down a bit last month: https://www.conference-board.org/dat...confidence.cfm

    http://www.investopedia.com/articles/05/010604.asp
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 05-01-2015 at 02:01 PM.

  5. #4
    Any link to a sample survey to see what questions are being asked?
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  6. #5
    So far, I have not been able to find that. You can check out "current release" to get some idea of the topics though.

    Investopedia does have some more details: http://www.investopedia.com/articles...ment-index.asp

    The CSI is basically calculated by subtracting the percentage of unfavorable consumer replies from the percentage of favorable ones. The CSI website provides a breakdown of how the index is calculated based on the answers to the following five core survey questions:

    x1) "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"

    x2) "Now looking ahead - do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"

    x3) "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole - do you think that during the next 12 months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"

    x4) "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely - that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"

    x5) "About the big things people buy for their homes - such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"


    To calculate the CSI, first compute the relative scores (the percent giving favorable replies minus the percent giving unfavorable replies, plus 100) for each of the five index questions. Round each relative score to the nearest whole number. Using the formula shown below, add the five relative scores, divide by the 1966 base period total of 6.7558, and add 2.0 (a constant to correct for sample design changes from the 1950s).
    More at link.

    How Investors Can Use the CSI

    When consumer confidence increases, certain sectors tend to benefit sooner than others. Companies that provide consumer goods often reap the initial fruits of improved consumer sentiment. Consumers who feel more confident about the economy generally also feel better about their employment prospects and are therefore more willing to buy houses, cars, appliances and other items. Investors should look at the stocks of car manufacturers, home builders and other retailers that typically see sales rise when the economy begins an expansion period.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 05-01-2015 at 02:53 PM.

  7. #6
    Spending more on bills. I got nailed with a $180 doctor office visit on my high deductible plan yesterday. And that was not even a specialist.

  8. #7

  9. #8
    Sounds like a measure of how well media propaganda is working.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book



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  11. #9
    Whatever the source- confidence is a powerful economic indicator. When the 2007 crash hit, not just people who lost jobs cut back on things but most people did. Companies fearing losses of sales cut people- before any actual reduction in sales occurred. There was an emotional over-response which led to the crash being steeper. People afraid cut back. Then sales actually did fall and companies cut back even more which lowered the economy even farther. Even when the fall stopped, it has taken time for people to regain their confidence about themselves, their own job security, and the overall economy which has meant slow recovery. The Fed can pump in trillions (which they did) but until people are confident enough to start buying again and companies are comfortable enough to hire again, things don't improve. The Fed pumping in more money may in fact re-assure that things will continue to be rough so people delay resuming normal activities even longer.

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    ...
    "Feel" more confident... yes, but based on what? The general ignorance is so high that I would not trust a meaner to feel confident for sound reasons save by the wildest coincidence.

    This whole thing smells of poopie gas.
    freedomisobvious.blogspot.com

    There is only one correct way: freedom. All other solutions are non-solutions.

    It appears that artificial intelligence is at least slightly superior to natural stupidity.

    Our words make us the ghosts that we are.

    Convincing the world he didn't exist was the Devil's second greatest trick; the first was convincing us that God didn't exist.

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Whatever the source- confidence is a powerful economic indicator.
    Perhaps, but an indicator of what?

    These terms and their use is as near to meaning nothing as one can get without actually being nothing.
    freedomisobvious.blogspot.com

    There is only one correct way: freedom. All other solutions are non-solutions.

    It appears that artificial intelligence is at least slightly superior to natural stupidity.

    Our words make us the ghosts that we are.

    Convincing the world he didn't exist was the Devil's second greatest trick; the first was convincing us that God didn't exist.

  14. #12
    If confidence is up, people spend more. Spending more leads to more jobs and growth. If confidence is low, people spend less money and the economy may contract- you put off making purchases. From an earlier link:
    Consumers who feel more confident about the economy generally also feel better about their employment prospects and are therefore more willing to buy houses, cars, appliances and other items. I

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by osan View Post
    Perhaps, but an indicator of what?

    These terms and their use is as near to meaning nothing as one can get without actually being nothing.
    An indicator that 90+ percent of American consumers are economically ignorant and believe the $#@! they hear on TV and radio.
    Legitimate use of violence can only be that which is required in self-defense.
    -Ron Paul

  16. #14

    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...


  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Whatever the source- confidence is a powerful economic indicator.

    The source makes a huge difference. Presence posted a longer term chart. I would suspect that confidence before the 1950s (if it could be measured) was even much higher. Imagine the confidence once we vanquished all the Indians and the land was ours. The confidence after WW I was high. The confidence of the 1950s was partly based on our World War II victory. Industry was good. Auto, steel, rubber, etc. It did not last long.

    The 1980s "confidence" was superficial, much like the shallow poise of an insecure high school girl. A lot of the 1990s confidence was fueled by speculation, the housing market being one example that carried over for a long time. People were "flipping" houses, even back in the 1980s. People were also giddy on the internet in the 1990s, but there was a shakeout in the first wave of dot coms.

    There is now a second wave of dot coms, especially with Google, SEO techniques, and globalization of the web. Everyone thinks they can be on the first page of a Google search. This, too, will pass, as there will be a quality shakeout and the major players rise to the top.

    A lot of today's "confidence" is a carryover from the stimulus. People are now giddy on health care jobs, but a good percentage of that is ultimately funded by so-called "entitlement" programs. What people don't mention is that a lot these new jobs are social assistance jobs.
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    If confidence is up, people spend more.

    Confidence in what? A government that will take care of you?

    Spending? People are spending more because they are simply getting money from transfer payments. Medicare, Medicaid, Retirement, etc. have become our largest industry. Here is just one example, the SNAP program:



    Total cost to administer the SNAP program (millions):


    2000---$17,054.02
    2001---$17,789.39
    2002---$20,637.02
    2003---$23,816.28
    2004---$27,099.03
    2005---$31,072.11
    2006---$32,903.06
    2007---$33,173.52
    2008---$37,639.64
    2009---$53,620.01
    2010---$68,283.94
    2011---$75,687.18
    2012---$78,411.05
    2013---$79,929.15
    2014---$74,139.71




    Average participation in SNAP (thousands):


    2000--- 17,194
    2001--- 17,318
    2002--- 19,096
    2003--- 21,250
    2004--- 23,811
    2005--- 25,628
    2006--- 26,549
    2007--- 26,316
    2008--- 28,223
    2009--- 33,490
    2010--- 40,302
    2011--- 44,709
    2012--- 46,609
    2013--- 47,636
    2014--- 46,536




    This chart would seem to be a confirmation that more people are on government assistance. More people on assistance means more people to administer those social assistance jobs.






    http://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/defaul...NAPsummary.pdf[/QUOTE]
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Lower gas prices have let consumers spend more money on other purchases which is good for the economy and jobs.

    Gas prices are not a good indicator. Gas prices are volatile. Gas price manipulation in the late 1970s-early 1980s led to the construction boom in places like Texas. My brother had friends who went there to work. The industry was dead by mid-decade because the middle east jacked the oil price back up. Office buildings in Houston were vacant by 1986. You could get a lease for a song.

    Same thing is happening today. The manipulation is to kill the fracking industry and US development. There are already signs of the cracks. RPF member KCIndy talked about declines in places like Alberta. I also think that western North Dakota and eastern Montana are declining. I know a guy in Wyoming who says business is off. Likely the same in west Texas.
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCarolinaLiberty View Post
    Gas prices are not a good indicator. Gas prices are volatile. Gas price manipulation in the late 1970s-early 1980s led to the construction boom in places like Texas. My brother had friends who went there to work. The industry was dead by mid-decade because the middle east jacked the oil price back up. Office buildings in Houston were vacant by 1986. You could get a lease for a song.

    Same thing is happening today. The manipulation is to kill the fracking industry and US development. There are already signs of the cracks. RPF member KCIndy talked about declines in places like Alberta. I also think that western North Dakota and eastern Montana are declining. I know a guy in Wyoming who says business is off. Likely the same in west Texas.
    You are right- gas prices are not an economic indicator. Didn't say they were.

  22. #19
    It's perfectly fitting that sentiment is at a 10-yr high with the bond bubble getting ready to explode this fall. The majority are always wrong when it comes to economics.

  23. #20
    So you expect interest rates to rise this fall? (Rising rates lowers the value of bonds) or are you concerned about defaults? Any changes in interest rates (if any) are likely to be very small (unless price inflation heats up quickly).

    Any particular types of bonds- or bonds in general?

  24. #21

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ..


    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Sounds like a measure of how well media propaganda is working.
    Pretty much , growth for a quarter of 0.1 % or some such $#@! is glorious and to be celebrated.Consumer spending up .03 % , well , double celebration .Ridiculous .

  27. #24
    +1

    Consumer Confidence was flying high before the crash, interesting isn't it! I'm sure Zippy assured everyone back then that the economy was doing really well
    There is enormous inertia — a tyranny of the status quo — in private and especially governmental arrangements. Only a crisis — actual or perceived — produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes politically inevitable
    - Milton Friedman



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  29. #25
    Its by 50 point questionnaire via U Michigan; polling began in 1952.
    Last edited by presence; 05-02-2015 at 08:24 AM.

    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...


  30. #26
    Election economics bogus spin reporting is starting early this year.

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Or Nothing II View Post
    +1

    Consumer Confidence was flying high before the crash, interesting isn't it! I'm sure Zippy assured everyone back then that the economy was doing really well
    The economy was doing pretty well before the crash.

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    The economy was doing pretty well before the crash.
    If it indeed had been doing well then it wouldn't have crashed the way it did, a clear sign of fundamental issues that had been brewing below the veneer. Nonetheless, the point is that short-term data isn't necessarily a strong sign of the health of an economy, & it certainly doesn't preclude the possibility of an imminent crash.
    There is enormous inertia — a tyranny of the status quo — in private and especially governmental arrangements. Only a crisis — actual or perceived — produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes politically inevitable
    - Milton Friedman

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Or Nothing II View Post
    If it indeed had been doing well then it wouldn't have crashed the way it did, a clear sign of fundamental issues that had been brewing below the veneer. Nonetheless, the point is that short-term data isn't necessarily a strong sign of the health of an economy, & it certainly doesn't preclude the possibility of an imminent crash.

    Since markets and economies go up and down, if they go down does that mean they never went up and were never good? Are there only bad economies (some do seem to think that)?

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Are there only bad economies (some do seem to think that)?
    Who seems to think that? Or, are you talking politics? For example, you and your fellow Democrat progressives like to discuss income disparities between rich and poor. You have done that on this forum. Fair enough. But now, you seem to be defending your voting choice of Obama, in spite of this income gap. Do you think Obama is not doing enough to address this? What do others in your party think? Is it just perception related to politics? Thanks!
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members



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