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Thread: The Rand vs Hillary 2016 Matchup Tracker

  1. #1

    The Rand vs Hillary 2016 Matchup Tracker

    General election showdown!

    States will be colored, and electoral college votes given - according to the latest reputable poll for each state. (going maximally back one year) Where no such poll exists, the results from the 2012 presidential election will be used. Just like in the real election, even a 1% lead will win the state. A tie will be marked as undecided. Remember, this is general election match-up polls, not republican primary polls.

    I will regularly update this thread when newer polls become available.

    Rand vs. Hillary - 17.04.2015:

    Rand vs Hillary - 27.04.2015:

    (Two new polls, IA and NH. Hillary up 1 point in IA, Rand up 1 point in NH)

    But just having Rand vs. Hillary isn't that interesting without some context; how does establishment candidate Jeb Bush fare vs Hillary? And how about another conservative challenger, Ted Cruz?

    Bush vs Clinton - 27.04.2015:

    Rand Paul vs Bush comparison:


    The last graphic requires some explanation - here I have marked the state according to who scores the best against Hillary Clinton. Red for Rand and blue for Bush. Undecided states are mostly due to the lack of polls, but Texas was a tie in terms of % against Hillary. I am considering improving the graphics to indicate this in the future.

    Clearly, this shows Rand does better in the midwest and in democratic-leaning and purple states against Hillary, while Jeb does better in the solid south and in his home state of Florida. Rand is at the moment between 1-3 points behind Hillary in Florida, Georgia, Iowa and Virginia, while Bush is lagging behind much more behind in the purple states of Pennsylvania, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado. This means that Rand has an easier road against Hillary than Bush does at the moment.

    I also decided to pit another conservative candidate, Ted Cruz against Hillary and Rand. Is he electable?

    Cruz vs Clinton - 27.04.2015:

    (Bad numbers for Cruz. This map could potentially be even more against him, if states such as Indiana, Missouri and Arizona had been polled this cycle. He gets these states since Romney won them in 2012)

    Rand Paul vs Ted Cruz comparison:

    (Ted Cruz polls better than Rand against Hillary in Alaska, New Mexico and South Carolina. Texas and North Carolina are tied. Rand polls better everywhere else)

    For other candidates, such as Walker, there simply isn't enough polling yet to make a meaningful comparison. I may consider to expand the coverage for major GOP candidates when there are more state polls available.

    Credits to the various polling companies, and 270towin.com, where you can make your own general election maps.



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  3. #2
    Cool, but how to get a consistent methodology so people other than our own will find it to be a reasonable conclusion? Any plans to do a website?
    THE SQUAD of RPF
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    @Ehanced_Deficit's real agenda on RPF =troll:

    Who spends this much time copy/pasting the same recycled links, photos/talking points.

    7 yrs/25k posts later RPF'ers still respond to this troll

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    Cool, but how to get a consistent methodology so people other than our own will find it to be a reasonable conclusion? Any plans to do a website?
    No polls are cherry-picked, and they must include a reasonable sample-size to be included, so this is something that everybody can agree upon. I don't plan on a website, but if somebody wants to make one, I can help them.

    Current plan is to just update it now and then. Maybe make some prettier graphics to share on social media. Especially if future maps improves Rand's general election lead vs Bush. So that you have an factual map graphic that essentially says "lose with Bush or win with Rand".

    Rand has a decent chance of winning the general like this:


    This is based on current polling + that Rand gains 3 points on Hillary. Time will show if that is wishful thinking or not.
    Last edited by Foreigner; 04-27-2015 at 03:10 PM.

  5. #4
    I would recommend just making states gray if they're polling within 5% of each other or within the margin of error.

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Foreigner View Post
    No polls are cherry-picked, and they must include a reasonable sample-size to be included, so this is something that everybody can agree upon. I don't plan on a website, but if somebody wants to make one, I can help them.

    Current plan is to just update it now and then. Maybe make some prettier graphics to share on social media. Especially if future maps improves Rand's general election lead vs Bush. So that you have an factual map graphic that essentially says "lose with Bush or win with Rand".

    Rand has a decent chance of winning the general like this:


    This is based on current polling + that Rand gains 3 points on Hillary. Time will show if that is wishful thinking or not.
    This map would be good to share, can you throw a list of the polls and when their conducted dates were? Put that into the picture map and it would get shared quite a bit.
    THE SQUAD of RPF
    1. enhanced_deficit - Paid Troll / John Bolton book promoter
    2. Devil21 - LARPing Wizard, fake magical script reader
    3. Firestarter - Tax Troll; anti-tax = "criminal behavior"
    4. TheCount - Comet Pizza Pedo Denier <-- sick

    @Ehanced_Deficit's real agenda on RPF =troll:

    Who spends this much time copy/pasting the same recycled links, photos/talking points.

    7 yrs/25k posts later RPF'ers still respond to this troll

  7. #6
    Well done OP, very interesting

    Quote Originally Posted by Foreigner View Post
    No polls are cherry-picked, and they must include a reasonable sample-size to be included, so this is something that everybody can agree upon. I don't plan on a website, but if somebody wants to make one, I can help them.
    You might want to get into contact with forum user "orenbus."

    He's working on a grassroots project which is going to include a site for Rand Paul related data, graphs, etc.

  8. #7

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    This map would be good to share, can you throw a list of the polls and when their conducted dates were? Put that into the picture map and it would get shared quite a bit.
    Well, I'm not 100% sure if I understand you... this particular map, as I wrote, is based on Rand gaining 3% in the polls. That means it's fiction and wishful thinking at this stage. I think it would be difficult to explain that without people getting a bad reaction since it shows a "potential scenario".

    Quote Originally Posted by Bastiat's The Law View Post
    Wasn't Rand beating Hillary in CO, Iowa, and Penn?
    Yep! And the map shows this as well. For Iowa, there was a recent poll from Gravis Marketing that showed Hillary leading Rand with 1 point. But several polls before shows Rand leading Hillary, so probably it's just a matter of time before a new poll reverses this. For this to be of value, I can't cherry-pick the polls where Rand does the best. (that would lead us to look stupid on election day like Karl Rowe in 2012)

    The poll where Rand beat Hillary in New Hampshire was from Gravis as well, so I doubt they are biased.



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  11. #9
    Cool project, thanks furner.
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    It's a balance between appeasing his supporters, appeasing the deep state and reaching his own goals.
    ~Resident Badgiraffe




  12. #10
    I am confused about the first 3 maps. How do you get from Bush 220 Clinton 314 and Paul 208 Clinton 315 to a Paul win over Bush?

  13. #11
    I see what you mean OP
    THE SQUAD of RPF
    1. enhanced_deficit - Paid Troll / John Bolton book promoter
    2. Devil21 - LARPing Wizard, fake magical script reader
    3. Firestarter - Tax Troll; anti-tax = "criminal behavior"
    4. TheCount - Comet Pizza Pedo Denier <-- sick

    @Ehanced_Deficit's real agenda on RPF =troll:

    Who spends this much time copy/pasting the same recycled links, photos/talking points.

    7 yrs/25k posts later RPF'ers still respond to this troll

  14. #12
    This is great stuff! Only three suggestions I would make:

    1 A rolling average makes more sense than just whatever poll was most recent. Individual polls are subject to a lot of noise.

    2 For states with no data, instead of assuming a generic Republican vote, infer a candidate-specific vote from national data. Take Missouri for example: from 2000-2012 the average of the final RCP national averages is about (rounded) 48 Dem, 47 Rep, and 5 Other. The average of the official results for Missouri from that time span is about (rounded again) 47 Dem, 51 Rep, and 2 Other. this means that a Republican should expect to get about [national poll]*1.01 for Missouri, while a Democrat should expect to get about [national poll]*.97 for Missouri. Perhaps someone with some statistical knowledge can tell me what operation makes the most sense there, it could be simple +-, or something with exponents, but using multiplication like this (and then adjusting so the total = 100%) with the RCP national average of Clinton 51.4, Cruz 39.7 comes out approximately Clinton 53.3, Cruz 43.3, Other 3.4 which gives Missouri to the Dems.

    3 To put this all on one page in an easy simple manner, an interactive graphic would be nice. I imagine that you could use java to do it pretty easily. All you really have to do is make several graphics like you did, and have some drop-down menu or something that changes which graphic is displayed to quickly switch between Bush, Cruz, Paul, Walker.
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  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Bastiat's The Law View Post
    Wasn't Rand beating Hillary in CO, Iowa, and Penn?
    Maybe not in Iowa anymore. Looks like Rand is losing ground.

    Scott Walker leads GOP field by 10 in Iowa, new poll finds

    is leading the GOP field by 10 points in Iowa, a poll released Tuesday found.

    Walker won 23% support among those polled by Public Policy Polling, compared to 13% for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. They were followed by 12% for former Florida governor Jeb Bush, 10% each for Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul, 8% for Ted Cruz, 7% for Ben Carson, 5% for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and 4% for Rick Perry.

    Walker also had the highest favorability in the field, with 59% of voters viewing him favorably, compared to 13% who had an unfavorable view.

    "In 2012 there was always a tension for Republican voters between getting a conservative enough candidate and getting one they thought could beat Barack Obama," said Dean Debnam, PPP's president. "At least in Iowa they seem to think Scott Walker is the guy who can check off both of those boxes."

    On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads with 62%, compared to 14% for Bernie Sanders, 6% for Martin O'Malley, 3% for Jim Webb, and 2% for Lincoln Chafee.

    The poll surveyed 466 Democratic primary voters and 462 Republican primary voters from Thursday through Sunday. The margin of error are +/- 4.5% for the Democratic sample, and +/- 4.6% for the Republican.

    Other recent polls have shown Walker is well-positioned at this early stage to contend for his party’s nomination. He has been performing particularly well with the GOP’s conservative base and has been for several months now.
    http://m.jsonline.com/news/blogs/301592921.html

  16. #14
    These maps always make me wish we had a plan for California.
    In New Zealand:
    The Coastguard is a Charity
    Air Traffic Control is a private company run on user fees
    The DMV is a private non-profit
    Rescue helicopters and ambulances are operated by charities and are plastered with corporate logos
    The agriculture industry has zero subsidies
    5% of the national vote, gets you 5 seats in Parliament
    A tax return has 4 fields
    Business licenses aren't a thing
    Prostitution is legal
    We have a constitutional right to refuse any type of medical care

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by idiom View Post
    These maps always make me wish we had a plan for California.
    Rand's going after silicone valley pretty hard.
    Non-violence is the creed of those that maintain a monopoly on force.

  18. #16
    Time to update this soon! New polling shows Rand winning against Hillary in Iowa again, and beating her in the key swing state of Ohio. He's still tied with her in North Carolina - but all other GOP'ers are losing to her there. He was up 1% on Hillary in Pennsylvania, but a new poll shows him down by 3%. So currently he would carry the swing states of Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio, while Hillary leads him in Pennsylvania, Virginia and Florida. And he's within striking distance in all those 3 states. He is, by far, the strongest general election candidate on the republican side.

    I counted the number of states where Rand is having the best general election prospects of all the republicans. It's 11. Also, he's doing 2nd best in 7 states. Now, consider that most states are almost never polled since the outcome is taken for granted. So there is no data for all states, including most of the Midwest, New England and California.

    Bush does poll best in 7 states, and finishes 2nd in 11 states. Huckabee also takes 7 states, but finishes 2nd in only 4 states. Most of the states where Bush and the Huckster are leading isn't swing states - except that Bush does win Florida - so it's nice for them, but no gamechanger for Republicans. If this was a sport, and we awarded 2 points for victory, and 1 point for 2nd place, the league-table would look like this:

    29p - Rand Paul
    25p - Jeb Bush
    18p - Mike Huckabee

    All other candidates are far behind Huckabee. Rubio is in 4th place with just 7 points. Note: If it's a tie for 1st place, both gets 2 points - but no 2nd place points are awarded for this state. If the 2nd place is tied, both second place finishers gets 1 point.

    Consider this post a small tease, I will post more substantial one later, probably tomorrow. I made a complete list of 1st and 2nd place finishers by state - but I will try to make it into a map graphic. Those are much easier to understand than just raw data. I'm thinking about switching up the format to make a "GOP showdown - who wins the electability race?" youtube video that can be spread by the grassroots to highlight Rand's general election strengths. But it's time consuming, so no promises.



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  20. #17
    “[T]he enshrinement of constitutional rights necessarily takes certain policy choices off the table.” (Heller, 554 U.S., at ___, 128 S.Ct., at 2822.)

    How long before "going liberal" replaces "going postal"?

  21. #18
    Ok, considering the all-important swing states:


    New Hampshire - Rand +4%
    Ohio - Rand +3%
    Colorado - Rand +3%
    Iowa - Rand +1%
    North Carolina - Tie
    Virginia - Hillary +2%
    Pennsylvania - Hillary +3%
    Florida - Hillary +3%


    The error margin of most of these polls are 3%, so one can classify all results except Rand's New Hampshire win as a virtual tie. Yes, Hillary will win at the moment, but the momentum is shifting - and in Flordia the poll is from March. Hillary's star has faded since then, so the state could be ripe for plucking.



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