General election showdown!
States will be colored, and electoral college votes given - according to the latest reputable poll for each state. (going maximally back one year) Where no such poll exists, the results from the 2012 presidential election will be used. Just like in the real election, even a 1% lead will win the state. A tie will be marked as undecided. Remember, this is general election match-up polls, not republican primary polls.
I will regularly update this thread when newer polls become available.
Rand vs. Hillary - 17.04.2015:
Rand vs Hillary - 27.04.2015:
(Two new polls, IA and NH. Hillary up 1 point in IA, Rand up 1 point in NH)
But just having Rand vs. Hillary isn't that interesting without some context; how does establishment candidate Jeb Bush fare vs Hillary? And how about another conservative challenger, Ted Cruz?
Bush vs Clinton - 27.04.2015:
Rand Paul vs Bush comparison:
The last graphic requires some explanation - here I have marked the state according to who scores the best against Hillary Clinton. Red for Rand and blue for Bush. Undecided states are mostly due to the lack of polls, but Texas was a tie in terms of % against Hillary. I am considering improving the graphics to indicate this in the future.
Clearly, this shows Rand does better in the midwest and in democratic-leaning and purple states against Hillary, while Jeb does better in the solid south and in his home state of Florida. Rand is at the moment between 1-3 points behind Hillary in Florida, Georgia, Iowa and Virginia, while Bush is lagging behind much more behind in the purple states of Pennsylvania, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado. This means that Rand has an easier road against Hillary than Bush does at the moment.
I also decided to pit another conservative candidate, Ted Cruz against Hillary and Rand. Is he electable?
Cruz vs Clinton - 27.04.2015:
(Bad numbers for Cruz. This map could potentially be even more against him, if states such as Indiana, Missouri and Arizona had been polled this cycle. He gets these states since Romney won them in 2012)
Rand Paul vs Ted Cruz comparison:
(Ted Cruz polls better than Rand against Hillary in Alaska, New Mexico and South Carolina. Texas and North Carolina are tied. Rand polls better everywhere else)
For other candidates, such as Walker, there simply isn't enough polling yet to make a meaningful comparison. I may consider to expand the coverage for major GOP candidates when there are more state polls available.
Credits to the various polling companies, and 270towin.com, where you can make your own general election maps.
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