Gravis Poll: Rand Paul at 15% in NH

[IndianaPolitico]

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-a...-lead-clinton/

Bush 18%
Walker 16%
Paul 15%
Rubio 11%
Cruz 10%
Christie 5%
Carson 4%
Huckabee 3%
Fiorina 3%
Santorum 1%

"Paul leads Clinton 45 percent to 44 percent, he said. “The Kentucky senator beats Clinton among Catholics, 47 percent to 42 percent; among Evangelical Protestants, 72 percent to 22 percent.”

Men support Paul, 51 percent to 40 percent, but Clinton leads Paul among women, 47 percent to 43 percent, Kaplan said. “The numbers are a lot closer among women for Paul against Clinton than for other candidates.”

"“The Wisconsin governor and Bush still lead the pack in New Hampshire, as we have seen in other states,” Kaplan said. “Paul’s strength was dormant, and we have been waiting for his numbers to reflect both the time he is spending in the Granite State and the popularity of his father, the Texas former congressman Ron Paul.”"

"The poll has a margin of error of ± 4% for the Republican Primary..."

[ross11988]

Good way to start off a Monday. I guess all the Romney people are jumping to the bush band wagon.

[luctor-et-emergo]

Men support Paul, 51 percent to 40 percent, but Clinton leads Paul among women, 47 percent to 43 percent, Kaplan said. “The numbers are a lot closer among women for Paul against Clinton than for other candidates.”

THIS is extremely important! Rand actually does pretty good with women!

[Patrick Henry]

I just keep scratching my head when I see Bush at the top.

[IndianaPolitico]

I just keep scratching my head when I see Bush at the top.

Good news on that however. Compared to a poll from the same company taken a month ago, Bush hasn't moved at all. In fact the only ones to move up in a significant way are Paul and to a smaller extent, Rubio.

[CaptUSA]

I just keep scratching my head when I see Bush at the top.

It's 1 part name recognition and 2 parts "air of inevitability".

Don't discount the air of inevitability when trying to figure out polls and voting behavior. People tend to side with who they think will win. Weird and an incredibly stupid way to find elect a representative, but that's what they do. Obama didn't become "Obama" until he shattered Hillary's air of inevitability. That's what Rand has to do. And that's what he's been trying to do by going after Hillary instead of the GOP rivals. He's trying to establish his own air of inevitability. It's a hard thing to do when the media is against you, but if he gets up the organization on the ground in the early states, things could look quite different after a few primaries.

[William Tell]

Walker was at 19% in the last Gravis poll in NH, 23% in the one before that.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...mary-3350.html

[adelina]

For reference, the previous Gravis NH poll conducted 3/18-3/19:
Bush 18%
Walker 19%
Rand 10%
Cruz 6%
Rubio 7%
Christie 10%

[Peace&Freedom]

It's a very good poll for Rand, when you consider his numbers are going up despite the heavy talk up for Bush and Rubio in the MSM in the last week. In fact, momentum Rand should have gotten from his announcement was truncated by the Hillary and Rubio announcement, yet his numbers went up anyway, while Rubio is already stalling.

[Superfly]

Rand only really needs to be within striking distance. The primary race is still over a year from being over.

If Rand is right in the thick of the race - then he just needs his "Aha!" moment to give him the push to win the thing. I am confident in that since he seems to get those moments whenever it seems like he is fading into the background a bit.

[jbauer]

I just keep scratching my head when I see Bush at the top.

I've yet to personally meet someone who wants Bush 3.0. In fact, most of the team read folks I know say that he's the only one they will NOT vote for.

[Okaloosa]

Paul leads Clinton 45 percent to 44 percent, he said. “The Kentucky senator beats Clinton among Catholics, 47 percent to 42 percent; among Evangelical Protestants, 72 percent to 22 percent.”

Men support Paul, 51 percent to 40 percent, but Clinton leads Paul among women, 47 percent to 43 percent, Kaplan said. “The numbers are a lot closer among women for Paul against Clinton than for other candidates.”

This is big news as this makes a fourth swing state Rand is beating Hillary in combined with Iowa, Colorado, and Pennsylvania.

Walker is the only one also beating Hillary in this poll and he has yet to have the negative coverage Rand received.

[Uriah]

I just keep scratching my head when I see Bush at the top.

Bush is essentially cornering the moderate voters as a block. Many old type Rockefeller Republicans. In my experience they as a group seem to be a silent plurality.

I've yet to personally meet someone who wants Bush 3.0. In fact, most of the team read folks I know say that he's the only one they will NOT vote for.

Expand your circle of friends and acquaintances. One major issue we had the last two cycles was that many thought the polls were rigged because no one they knew supported 'x' candidate. People tend to associate with others that are like minded and disassociate or avoid those that think/believe/act differently.

[IndianaPolitico]

I think there are several great things about this poll:

1: Rand is moving up. A gain of 5% which is outside the margin of error is great, especially when you take into account the media's continued attacks.
2: Bush is NOT moving up. He is in exactly the same spot as he was in the last poll.
3: Walker is deflating. Walker's support is obviously soft and it should decrease even more when/if he actually begins his campaign.
4: No one is above 20%. There is no clear Romney type frontrunner this go around. This is anyone's game.
5: Santorum has 1%.

[kbs021]

This poll is also among registered voters and not likely voters. I think Rand will outperform polls as well. Rand has had really the only steady support in these polls. Cruz, Walker, Rubio are dropping and rising every week. It is also important to note that when we perform well in Iowa, we will get a bump too. We are taking NH. Make those phone calls and donate if you can to ensure this.

[JohnGalt1225]

Rand only really needs to be within striking distance. The primary race is still over a year from being over.

If Rand is right in the thick of the race - then he just needs his "Aha!" moment to give him the push to win the thing. I am confident in that since he seems to get those moments whenever it seems like he is fading into the background a bit.

Exactly. We're a long ways away so long as he's a "top tier" contender is all that matters right now.

[r3volution 3.0]

For a point of reference..

In late April 2011 Ron was at about half this (8%).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html

[Crashland]

This poll is also among registered voters and not likely voters. I think Rand will outperform polls as well. Rand has had really the only steady support in these polls. Cruz, Walker, Rubio are dropping and rising every week. It is also important to note that when we perform well in Iowa, we will get a bump too. We are taking NH. Make those phone calls and donate if you can to ensure this.

Also last time Huntsman focused his entire campaign on New Hampshire and he ended up with 17%, a lot of which might have gone to Ron. I am very confident that Rand will be able to take NH, and I think he might be able to win it by more than just a few points.

[squirl22]

I just keep scratching my head when I see Bush at the top.

I think it is the old time regular Republicans. They seem to never change or learn...same old same old.

[ssunlimited]

Check this out:

Jeb Bush 18%
Scott Walker 16% Rand Paul 15%
Marco Rubio 11%, Ted Cruz 10%, Chris Christie 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, Undecided 15%

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewi...#New_Hampshire

That's really a lot of UNDECIDED. They can still make or break this state. We need Paul to win as many of those as he can now don't we?

[FriedChicken]

Check this out:

Jeb Bush 18%
Scott Walker 16% Rand Paul 15%
Marco Rubio 11%, Ted Cruz 10%, Chris Christie 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, Undecided 15%

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewi...#New_Hampshire

That's really a lot of UNDECIDED. They can still make or break this state. We need Paul to win as many of those as he can now don't we?

They can. But, if I'm correct, they intend more to break the state than make it. Unless I'm mistaken on the statistical stuffs ... those 15% are foaming at the mouth hoping Romney will run again.
It's pretty unrealistic to think Rand will win the majority of their votes.

We gotta work hard for NH. I don't think it will be very easy to win.

Keep in mind that this is the state that voted for McCain in 2008 and Romney 2012 (overwhelmingly).
In fact, we might have had some decent presidents come from the republican party if it weren't for this particular state ... who knows ...

[ssunlimited]

They can. But, if I'm correct, they intend more to break the state than make it. Unless I'm mistaken on the statistical stuffs ... those 15% are foaming at the mouth hoping Romney will run again.
It's pretty unrealistic to think Rand will win the majority of their votes.

We gotta work hard for NH. I don't think it will be very easy to win.

Keep in mind that this is the state that voted for McCain in 2008 and Romney 2012 (overwhelmingly).
In fact, we might have had some decent presidents come from the republican party if it weren't for this particular state ... who knows ...

But Romney decided not to run.

I know it won't be easy to win NH.

McCain won NH in 2000 and 2008. Romney won that state a lot because his state as governor is close to it and a little because he was winning the national vote.

[Foreigner]

If Rand does better than Cruz in Iowa, then he will gain the majority of his votes in New Hampshire. For Walker and Rubio, I think half of their votes are possible with a outright win in Iowa.

Of course, winning Iowa and NH isn't easy, I think Walker is the favorite to win Iowa at this moment. It will be interesting to see how much cash and ground support Walker can build. He hasn't announced yet, so he'll get another boost from that.

[ssunlimited]

Sorry for the late response and being slow on the pick up but JUST NOW I saw the margin of error being +/- 4% and that is very good! Rand Paul CAN win NH. And he NEEDS to if he can't win IA.

[CPUd]

Walker will be polling around 5% a few weeks after he declares his candidacy and the press starts nailing him down on positions. Those points will get split between JEB and Rubio.