Rand Paul's plan to win the nomination

[ssunlimited]

What is Rand Paul's plan to win the nomination? I really think he needs to win IA and/or NH at first place to have a chance. I think his best bet is NH. But now Scott Walker is leading nationally and in NH so I am worried. Whoever wins IA and NH will almost certainly win the nomination. IA first straw poll is August 8th. Can Rand win it? Can Rand win any IA straw polls? IA caucus is January 18th and NH primary is January 26th. Can Rand win either?

Also I say is use his money wisely. How to use the money wisely?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republi...rimaries,_2016

[cindy25]

no Republican in the modern era has won the nomination without winning either IA or NH. IA is just as possible as NH, as Ron came within 4%. if he holds that 21% it might be enough in a crowded field. NH will only have 3 or 4 left.

[ssunlimited]

NH will have 3 or 4 left what? I hear plenty of people on the Internet who supported Ron Paul to not support Rand Paul. Rand Paul was doing well in NH where Ron didn't.

[RonPaulGeorge&Ringo]

I hear plenty of people on the Internet who supported Ron Paul to not support Rand Paul.

Very few of those people would bother to participate in a Republican caucus.

[CPUd]

NH will have 3 or 4 left what? I hear plenty of people on the Internet who supported Ron Paul to not support Rand Paul. Rand Paul was doing well in NH where Ron didn't.

After Iowa and before NH, there could only be 3 or 4 candidates still running.

Many non-serious candidates drop out after Iowa or NH. One strategy is to split votes off from stronger candidates having the same base, so 12%-15% and they could walk away with it. It's a long shot, but even if they lose, they get their name out there, maybe help an ally and get a Cabinet position.

[jurgs01]

Rand needs to dominate in the debates. His base in both of those states is close enough to be within striking distance of winning, so dominating the debates will put him over the top. He has really good teams in place to do the rest.

[ross11988]

You're asking the wrong question. You should be asking "how do I help Rand win the nomination"

[nobody's_hero]

Well, you know whatever state he wins first is going to be downplayed and written-off by the establishment/media. I mean basically Iowa used to be the total $#@! and when Ron Paul did well there everyone was like, 'screw Iowa.'

I say Rand Paul needs to win them all at the same time and then the media/establishment will be like, "well, $#@!."

[The Northbreather]

What is Rand Paul's plan to win the nomination? I really think he needs to win IA and/or NH at first place to have a chance. I think his best bet is NH. But now Scott Walker is leading nationally and in NH so I am worried. Whoever wins IA and NH will almost certainly win the nomination. IA first straw poll is August 8th. Can Rand win it? Can Rand win any IA straw polls? IA caucus is January 18th and NH primary is January 26th. Can Rand win either?

Also I say is use his money wisely. How to use the money wisely?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republi...rimaries,_2016

Is ss unlimited a boat?

[r3volution 3.0]

The early states are the "primary within a primary" - i.e. the contest to see who becomes the "anti-Jeb," the "conservative alternative."

Rand doesn't have to dominate the early states, he just has to do better than any of the other potential "conservative alternatives", so that they drop and it becomes a two-man race.

Suppose the states break down this like:

IA - 1st Jeb, 2nd Rand, 3rd Cruz

Everybody else drops out.

NH - 1st Rand, 2nd Jeb, 3rd Cruz
SC - 1st Jeb, 2nd Cruz, 3rd Rand
NV - 1st Rand, 2nd Jeb, 3rd Cruz

Cruz drops and we go head to head against Jeb.

This is what I hope to see. Of course, it would be great if Rand just swept the whole thing, but this is a more realistic path to victory IMO.

[Havax]

The early states are the "primary within a primary" - i.e. the contest to see who becomes the "anti-Jeb," the "conservative alternative."

Rand doesn't have to dominate the early states, he just has to do better than any of the other potential "conservative alternatives", so that they drop and it becomes a two-man race.

Suppose the states break down this like:

IA - 1st Jeb, 2nd Rand, 3rd Cruz

Everybody else drops out.

NH - 1st Rand, 2nd Jeb, 3rd Cruz
SC - 1st Jeb, 2nd Cruz, 3rd Rand
NV - 1st Rand, 2nd Jeb, 3rd Cruz

Cruz drops and we go head to head against Jeb.

This is what I hope to see. Of course, it would be great if Rand just swept the whole thing, but this is a more realistic path to victory IMO.

Is Huckabee still going to run? If so that will really suck for us. I also expect Walker to be a bigger threat than Cruz. I'm sure Rubio will have a surge moment too.

[ctiger2]

Rand will run as a libertarian against Rubio & Clinton.

[nannette]

maybe because he is being set up from the beginning 1) supporting romoney, 2) supporting israel's wars, etc.

[ssunlimited]

These posts are really helpful guys thanks!

[69360]

I don't think Rand can win in 2016. I want him to, will vote for him and don't discourage anyone from voting for him or doing what they think is best with their time and money.

I think it's going to be Jeb versus Hillary with Hillary winning.

Maybe Rand can win next time around IMO.

[r3volution 3.0]

Is Huckabee still going to run? If so that will really suck for us. I also expect Walker to be a bigger threat than Cruz. I'm sure Rubio will have a surge moment too.

Sure. I was using "Jeb" as the [insert generic establishment candidate]. The establishment GOP always circles their wagons round one candidate early on. I suspect it'll be Bush, but it could potentially be Walker or Rubio or some other dark horse. As for Cruz, same thing. Take that name and substitute with [insert faux "conservative"
candidate]. It could be Huckleberry, or perhaps even Santorum, who knows. Either way, there are basically three tickets out of IA. One will be be Rand, one will be the faux conservative, and one will be the establishment candidate. It's possible, even likely, that the others won't all drop right away. But whoever gets 4th or worse out of IA is a dead man walking, just trying to get enough attention to pay off his campaign debt. It'll effectively be a 3 man race after IA.

[David Sadler]

The early states are the "primary within a primary" - i.e. the contest to see who becomes the "anti-Jeb," the "conservative alternative."

Rand doesn't have to dominate the early states, he just has to do better than any of the other potential "conservative alternatives", so that they drop and it becomes a two-man race.

Suppose the states break down this like:

IA - 1st Jeb, 2nd Rand, 3rd Cruz

Everybody else drops out.

NH - 1st Rand, 2nd Jeb, 3rd Cruz
SC - 1st Jeb, 2nd Cruz, 3rd Rand
NV - 1st Rand, 2nd Jeb, 3rd Cruz

Cruz drops and we go head to head against Jeb.

This is what I hope to see. Of course, it would be great if Rand just swept the whole thing, but this is a more realistic path to victory IMO.

Walker leads GOP field in new New Hampshire poll

An April survey by NH1 showed:
Scott Walker, 22.7 percent
Jeb Bush, 16.5 percent
Rand Paul, 14.9 percent
Ted Cruz, 8.9 percent

NH1 Poll

Bush leading Rand in NH (according to this poll)?

[r3volution 3.0]

^^^Despite hanging in longer than I thought, I'm still confident that Walker's a flash in the pan. Two months from now, we won't be talking about him.

As for Bush, his lead's tiny, and he hasn't done ANY campaigning yet. Have you see him on TV?

Once people get a grip on him he won't be such a favorite in NH. Especially re common core.

[MrGoose]

We still have plenty of time, although I think Rand needs to win Iowa. He needs momentum and to drop some others in the race. I think winning Iowa and NH is possible, and I think it has to be done for Rand to win. I wish I lived close to one of these states so I could help in these crucial primaries/caucuses...

[tennman]

^^^Despite hanging in longer than I thought, I'm still confident that Walker's a flash in the pan. Two months from now, we won't be talking about him.

As for Bush, his lead's tiny, and he hasn't done ANY campaigning yet. Have you see him on TV?

Once people get a grip on him he won't be such a favorite in NH. Especially re common core.

That's great, but why do you think that? I'm not really sure what's made him so popular except that people DON'T know who he is. Kind of like Obama. Rand needs to do 2 things, keep his father's base (or most of it) and make solid gains with like-minded GOPers. But I digress, why do you think Scott will fade?

I hope that he'll split votes with Bush and Huckabee if he joins. I think the more who join only benefit Rand because Rand's base is more dedicated and can be counted on.

[idiom]

I think the campaign is focused on the early states.

If there is still a hardcore base out there, we should be door knocking in the bigger states to move the needle there and affect the electability numbers.