New CNN national poll: Bush 16, Walker 13, Paul 12/ Paul performs best against Clinton

[kbs021]

Looking good here especially since its a national poll. Right where we want to be.

[kbs021]

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/im.../poll.2016.pdf

[randomname]

all three within margin of error. Essentially Paul is on top

[randomname]

why didnt they poll jeb against clinton (or chose to keep that secret)?

maybe he did horribly?

also interesting how 11% picked Paul as second choice vs 5% walker

[randomname]

So with Paul performing best against Hillary I assume Paul had a little CPAC bump and Clinton a little scandal "inverse bump"?

[mwkaufman]

So it's hard to support a candidate you've never heard of, so Walker is doing really strongly by having 13% support with only 42% name recognition, he'd project to lead this if everyone knew all the candidates. Paul gets a smaller boost that would put him in a tie with Bush basically.

[thoughtomator]

J.E.B. is stunningly underwater on the fav/unfav numbers - 3:2 against. That's actually pretty hard to do without having yet been caught in some major scandal.

[Millennial Conservatarian]

These numbers pop out at me the most:

Among Republicans: Bush 22, Walker 12, Paul 7

Among Independents: Paul 17, Walker 15, Bush 10

I think one reason Rand did pretty well in this poll could be because it included Republican-leaning independents. Great news for the general. But Rand has to either just overwhelm with the independents or he needs to start doing better among Republicans.

[Inkblots]

why didnt they poll jeb against clinton (or chose to keep that secret)?

Um, they did. It's right there on page 11:
Mar. 13-15, 2015 (Clinton) 55% (Bush) 40%

[William Tell]

1st choice:
Bush 16%
Walker 13%
Paul 12%
Huckabee 10%
Carson 9%
Christie 7%
Rubio 7%
Cruz 4%
Perry 4%
Kasich 2%
Graham 1%
Jindal 1%
Santorum 1%


2nd choice:
Bush 13%
Paul 11%
Rubio 11%
Huckabee 9%
Christie 9%
Cruz 6%
Carson 6%
Walker 5%
Perry 5%
Santorum 4%
Fiorina 3%
Kasich 2%
Graham 1%
Jindal 1%

[Crashland]

The Walker rocketship is coming back to earth

[thoughtomator]

So it's hard to support a candidate you've never heard of, so Walker is doing really strongly by having 13% support with only 42% name recognition, he'd project to lead this if everyone knew all the candidates. Paul gets a smaller boost that would put him in a tie with Bush basically.

I had pointed out months ago that Walker was by a good margin the strongest challenger that Paul would have to face in the primary.

[CPUd]

I think Bobby Jindal may have lost a point to Lindsey Graham.

[Jeremy]

Pretty good.

[Anti Federalist]

Tells me the Stupid Party is getting ready to nominate another loser.

In 2012, Ron was the only one that polled better than O-Bomb-Ya.

These numbers pop out at me the most:

Among Republicans: Bush 22, Walker 12, Paul 7

Among Independents: Paul 17, Walker 15, Bush 10

I think one reason Rand did pretty well in this poll could be because it included Republican-leaning independents. Great news for the general. But Rand has to either just overwhelm with the independents or he needs to start doing better among Republicans.

[RonPaul4Prez2012]

Third place isnt good enough, dont these people know that Walker is related to the Bush clan?

[Vanguard101]

Whether we like it or not, Walker is running as a conservative. He has a very conservative record as governor and is easily one of the best governors in the past 15 years. What the conservative republican base wants is someone like Walker and that's why he will inevitably poll very well. If Walker was not in the race, Paul would be polling better. I also suspect Cruz and Carson are also reasons why Paul won't poll well initially because there are people sticking it out for them hoping they have a chance. Sadly, I see 2016 coming down to Walker and Bush. Paul has always polled badly with general republicans relative to other Republicans. It's a no-brainer. Paul isn't trying to court that base. He's hoping to encourage the younger generation and independents to vote for him in the primary. If we can get enough of them in the primary, we win.

[eleganz]

The media likes to control the narrative, well we can make our own rules.

CHANGE THE NARRATIVE.

https://www.facebook.com/californiaforrandpaul

[tsai3904]

Another poll showing Rand leading with Independents. It's good that the first three states allow Independents to vote in the GOP primary but it will be a problem afterwards if they can't convince Independents to register Republican in closed states.

[tangent4ronpaul]

I got an unsolicited e-mail today from Barbra Bush back peddling on her statement that 2 Bushes in the WB was enough.

-t

[CPUd]

[Jeremy]

Comparison (CNN poll closest to March, year before election)

March 9 - 11, 2007 - 9th
Rudy Giuliani 34%, John McCain 18%, Newt Gingrich 9%, Mitt Romney 9%, George Pataki 3%, Jim Gilmore 2%, Sam Brownback 2%, Chuck Hagel 2%, Ron Paul 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Tom Tancredo 1%, Tommy Thompson 1%

April 29 - May 1, 2011 - 5th
Mike Huckabee 16%, Mitt Romney 13%, Sarah Palin 11%, Newt Gingrich 10%, Ron Paul 10%, Haley Barbour 5%, Tim Pawlenty 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%

March 13 - 15, 2015 - 3rd
Jeb Bush 16%, Scott Walker 13%, Rand Paul 12%, Mike Huckabee 10%, Ben Carson 9%, Chris Christie 7%, Marco Rubio 7%, Ted Cruz 4%, Rick Perry 4%, John Kasich 2%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 1%

[rich34]

I think we also have to look at the fact that Ron ran in the last two elections obviously gaining the most support from young people. So in essence if Rand is able to hang onto most of these folks there has to be a huge number of people out there in the 18 to 35 year old old range for Rand to pull from. Add this with the fact that he does much better with the older demographic than Ron did plus the amount of elderly party die hards that are no longer with us (not saying that's good i wish harm on no one), but you really gotta like Rand's chances. And its obviously why they're using Carson and Cruz to peel away as much support as possible. Which is why i saw Glen Beck shooting a load in his pants when Michelle Malkin saying she supports him at this point.. He was like ahhhh say that again. Ole Glen talks the talk but we all know he sure as hell don't walk the walk..

[tsetsefly]

All, everyone knows about Scott Walker is that he fought the unions, but he really has not been pressed on all sorts of issues and really has no platform to speak of at this time. THe only thing people know him for is right to work. SO he will be looked at more favorably.

His stance on immigration is Jeb Bush like which many republicans won't like and he might have other issues as well: http://www.breitbart.com/big-governm...-amnesty-aide/

I do think he will be a tougher opponent than Bush.

Is it confirmed that Ted Cruz is running? I think he takes the most votes from Rand.

[Vanguard101]

All, everyone knows about Scott Walker is that he fought the unions, but he really has not been pressed on all sorts of issues and really has no platform to speak of at this time. THe only thing people know him for is right to work. SO he will be looked at more favorably.

His stance on immigration is Jeb Bush like which many republicans won't like and he might have other issues as well: http://www.breitbart.com/big-governm...-amnesty-aide/

I do think he will be a tougher opponent than Bush.

Is it confirmed that Ted Cruz is running? I think he takes the most votes from Rand.

Unions are a damn good reason to support someone in this age of progressivism. He's also been pretty favorably to outlets such as Cato and Heritage. I know he isn't one of us, but let's not act like he's 100 percent awful

[anaconda]

I had pointed out months ago that Walker was by a good margin the strongest challenger that Paul would have to face in the primary.

You may be absolutely correct, but I will predict that Walker will finish lower than second place in the primary delegate count.

[anaconda]

I got a warm fuzzy feeling when I saw Rand with an 11% deficit against Mrs. Clinton. Wasn't an 11% deficit Rand's initial polling against Trey Greyson?

[Millennial Conservatarian]

Is it confirmed that Ted Cruz is running? I think he takes the most votes from Rand.

Rand really needs to just have a sitdown with Ted and say listen, we're 85-90% the same, we're the only two constitutional conservatives running. I actually have a shot at this, you have no path to either the nomination or the general win.

[philipped]

Rand really needs to just have a sitdown with Ted and say listen, we're 85-90% the same, we're the only two constitutional conservatives running. I actually have a shot at this, you have no path to either the nomination or the general win.

It had to have already happened. There is no way Cruz can't see it. Rand probably didn't mention he'll be taking a good chunk of his staff along the way though ;-). This probably got Cruz tight and that's why we're here right now for almost 6 months nail and tooth trying to figure out if Ted is going to run or not. I think Rand needs to have another sit down with him before or right after the next Senate recess.

[Millennial Conservatarian]

It had to have already happened. There is no way Cruz can't see it. Rand probably didn't mention he'll be taking a good chunk of his staff along the way though ;-). This probably got Cruz tight and that's why we're here right now for almost 6 months nail and tooth trying to figure out if Ted is going to run or not. I think Rand needs to have another sit down with him before or right after the next Senate recess.

I think Cruz is a smart guy and will eventually come around to this, but the guy is an incredible narcissist it's hard to say. Rand may need to promise him something, and it absolutely cannot be VP. Maybe time to call in one of those favors with Mitch in the Senate. Ted knows he ain't taking votes away from Jeb, and isn't taking many from Walker. He knows full well if he gets 4-5% of the vote in Iowa that could damn well cost Rand the primary.