I haven't been paying any attention lately, is Paul expected to win? Some things on Twitter seem highly encouraging, but I don't know.
mod edit:
Last edited by jct74; 02-28-2015 at 03:19 PM.
Someone in the other thread who is there said there are plenty of Rand supporters there, but also Ted Cruz and Ben Carson groups have booths. Not so much for Scott Walker.
I would be majorly surprised if Rand did not win the straw poll. The question I am interested in is whether he can top last year's 31%, and also how much is the gap between him and the other contenders.
Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. -Douglas Hofstadter
Life, Liberty, Logic
if he doesn't win, it a huge blow. a narrow win might spin badly.
If we're gauging it by speech only, this years speech was a hell of a lot better than last year's. If anybody (typical CPAC attendant) was wavering because they weren't too sure about Rand's FP, then that speech would've helped solidify their uncertainties. Sometimes you just need to see it for your own eyes to believe it. There'll be enough of those conversions to help Rand win by an ok margin. I don't see him winning by too much but a win is a win is a win. I can easily see a Rand and Reagan meme going around back to back to back CPAC champs. In fact, I'm going to see if I can get anyone to work on one.Originally Posted by Crashland
THE SQUAD of RPF
1. enhanced_deficit - Paid Troll / John Bolton book promoter
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@Ehanced_Deficit's real agenda on RPF =troll:
Who spends this much time copy/pasting the same recycled links, photos/talking points.
7 yrs/25k posts later RPF'ers still respond to this troll
I had a dream last night that chris Christie won. I'm relieved to realize it was just a dream.
Rand should win but i wouldn't be surprised if the powers that be manage to astroturf another candidate to the top of the poll :/
I don't think the "powers that be" care too much about CPAC. From what I have read in the MSM, they also expect Paul to win, and it is probably a given that the most libertarian candidate tends to win this every year.
There is no fear in love, but perfect love casts out fear. For fear has to do with punishment, and whoever fears has not been perfected in love.
(1 John 4:18)
Carson will come in second is my prediction. That will be the story
Lol, yeah, that will be the headline. "CPAC straw poll results are in: Ben Carson comes in 2nd."
Rand will win it.
Something about the whole Draft Ben Carson movement feels like the biggest lane of astroturf, even more than the Coffee Party back in 2010.
It is AFP, same people who organized the town hall shout downs in 2010.
I don't get it. He is a terrible speaker, an almost unwatchable interview, and has presented no ideas at all. I have seen at least a dozen interviews and he is probably the least impressive (after Sarah Palin) person I have ever seen give an interview.
Yet, his PAC outraised Hillary's, Rubio's, and Rand's PACs last year. It is very strange.
Because of that video where he spoke with Obama sitting a few feet away, in opposition to policies, and giving his personal story of achievement.
It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people's minds. -Samuel Adams
What time are the results announced?
I have to wonder if the media had the same attitude about CPAC's straw poll, prior to the years the Paul's took them over? ...I mean, all the dismissiveness about it being just "the younger crowd", "a lot of college students", "not really representative", etc?
Carson is polling high now because the media is name-dropping him all the time. Like it or not, they still have a ton of sway. Walker was consistently polling 1% nationally, the media started talking about him non-stop, boom, front-runner status.
Carson simply won't get double-digits in any state. The primary will chew him up and spit him out. He's good for little one-liners, but that goes only so far. He can get away with it now because things haven't revved up yet.
results at 5:10 pm
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/view-the-...ule-for-day-3/SATURDAY
8:45 a.m. – Mark Levin
10:00 a.m. – Tony Perkins
10:45 a.m. – Naghmeh Abedini, wife of imprisoned American pastor
2:40 p.m. – Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers (R-WA)
2:50 p.m. – TBA
3:50 p.m. – TBA
5:10 p.m. – CPAC Straw Poll Results Announcement
//
Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. -Douglas Hofstadter
Life, Liberty, Logic
It's interesting that according to the C-SPAN schedule they won't be airing the results this year like they normally do, even though they broadcast extensively from CPAC Friday and Saturday. When the results are being announced they will instead be airing a re-run of Jeb Bush at CPAC yesterday.
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/videoLibr...idSchedule.php
I wonder if NBC, or some other stream will have it.
http://www.breitbart.com/video/2015/...-of-cpac-2015/
Who's ready for the media saying Ben Carson and Scott Walker coming in second and third place respectively is the "real story of the CPAC straw poll"?
thehill.com's main story is already can Rand Paul be stopped?
get ready for some of this too
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeCkZyx83m8
U.S. media is just so awful.
Back in 2011, they spent all their time dismissing any straw poll Ron Paul won, but greatly promoting any straw poll on which one of their preferred candidates came out on top. Remember when Herman Cain won some obscure straw poll in Florida, and the media did this whole "he's surging!" thing, and sent him to the top of the national polls for over a month, before reality caught up with Cain? They never do that crap when Paul wins.
Mathew Boyle at breitbart is reporting that Jeb's people are again busing in lobbyists to vote for him in the straw poll. This, according to emails obtained by Betsy Woodruff at Slate.
One person behind the effort to bus in Bush backers, Woodruff confirmed, was former George W. Bush advance man Fritz Brogan. “A Bush insider confirmed to Slate that Bush’s Right to Rise PAC is helping organize the transportation,” Woodruff wrote.
Three other potential GOP presidential campaigns told Breitbart News that they expect nothing less from Bush’s campaign, since he doesn’t have real conservative support.
“It comes as no surprise that the Bushies would try to rig the CPAC straw poll. Jeb, like his father and brother, is strongly disliked and distrusted by the Base,” one said.
Trying to rig the CPAC straw poll “is a cynical effort by Bush’s establishment campaign to attempt to build some conservative bona fides where none exist,” a second rival presidential effort staffer told Breitbart News. “Since they don’t have legitimate conservative support they have to pay for it in a transparent AstroTurf effort.”
http://www.breitbart.com/big-governm...in-supporters/
I think it's likely, but not a blowout win. If not top 3 for sure.
No one but a Paul or Romney has won CPAC since 2006, and the Pauls have won 4 of the past 5 years.
Takeaway: Rand has a pretty good likelihood of winning, but if he doesn't, it's going to be because Jeb Bush used his money and organization to out-muscle us.
That video is hilarious! I forgot how ridiculous they get. Can't wait to see what happens at Ames - if they allow it to take place, that is!
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