How did Rand's favorability fall from 58% to 42% in a year?

[AuH20]

Granted, I'm not a fan of PPP, but it sounds like he bit off more than he could chew, instead of sticking with what got him elected in the first place.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/m...-gop-race.html

2015 has been a struggle for Rand Paul in the polls so far. This is the second month in a row he's come in at 4% nationally, and he's only registered at 5-7% in our state polls so far this year as well. Over the last year his favorability rating with primary voters nationally has fallen from 58/21 to 42/24. It's not that he's had a big uptick in voters disliking him, but the 13% decline in ones who even have an opinion about him suggests he's not really grabbing the attention of Republican voters in the way the other candidates are.

[Brett85]

I don't know, but this poll seems to be an outlier. If you look at the RCP average, the other three polls in the average have Rand at over 10%, and this poll has him at 4%. I don't know if it's an intentional bias or just a different methodology they use, but that poll is an outlier at this point.

[William Tell]

I don't know, but this poll seems to be an outlier. If you look at the RCP average, the other three polls in the average have Rand at over 10%, and this poll has him at 4%. I don't know if it's an intentionally bias or just a different methodology they use, but that poll is an outlier at this point.

Yep, I won't completely discount it, but its not showing what the other polls are.

. This is the second month in a row he's come in at 4% nationally, and he's only registered at 5-7% in our state polls so far this year as well.

Just PPP.

[Ronin Truth]

He started talking more.

[presence]

Could be the bridges burnt along the way.



I don't suspect anyone is going to hand painting signs for 2016:

Dr Rand Paul
Cured My Apathy

[AuH20]

He started talking more.

He should have seen those high favorability numbers and gone into bland mode. Stop wading into the high weeds of third rail issues, when they simply exist to keep status quo politicians in power.

[orenbus]

Polls don't mean anything until a couple weeks before voting.

[randomname]

Still had the boost from the drones filibuster where the media begrudgingly fawned over him whereas now coverage is mostly neutral or negative

[FSP-Rebel]

Seems to me that Rand has been focusing on taking his message straight to certain pockets of activists, different state and local party officials, as well as the high level donors at the moment - likely solidifying inroads in those particular areas. It looks like he's letting the media do their thing and plateau Walkers' support to get it over with so he's doing the behind-the-scenes work to shore up all underlying support and prime his base for what's coming up. Then, once the Walker meme wears off to some extent, he'll be able to do his own thing and get the media to start talking about him running when he announces thus making the most out of his formal unveiling. He sees what's going on lately as do we all (ISIS war porn/propaganda, media puffing of Bush and the like) so I'm sure his squad is planning things accordingly. I'd assume his favorability will start to rise when he's back in the national media spotlight since that's where it seems the primary voters are getting their perspectives by and large.

[Millennial Conservatarian]

Polls don't mean anything until a couple weeks before voting.

exactly. i think the polls to pay attention to at this point and that are the most significant/relevant are the ones that show Rand as consistently the most competitive against Hillary in numerous swing states. Whatever individual state and primary polls may show, there is no denying that Rand has consistently, for the past year or more, polled the best out of everyone matched up against Hillary. If Rand stays competitive and near the top-3 in the final weeks, is on message, and is still doing by far the best against Hillary in the swing states, shouldn't that be enough to make more than enough Ted Cruz/Ben Carson/Mike Huckabee/Scott Walker supporters rethink who their best "conservative alternative" to Jebby should be? Especially if those polls are showing those guys losing by 5-10 points to Ms. Clinton in Colorado, NH, VA, NC and NV and showing Rand +/-2%

[Krugminator2]

He should have seen those high favorability numbers and gone into bland mode. Stop wading into the high weeds of third rail issues, when they simply exist to keep status quo politicians in power.

In that same poll, he does the best of any Republican against Hillary Clinton.

He actually has the highest net favorables averaged across polls of any Republican candidate right now.

Rand is more right wing than the original AuH20. Even though it hurts him short term, if he didn't do anything to reach out beyond hardcore conservatives he would not only lose by 20 in the general election, he would be in worse shape in the primary.

[RonPaulMall]

When was the last thing he did or said something popular? First two years of his term, Rand was basically the point man for the Conservative position on issue after issue. Past year or so he's been MIA on a lot of the bigger issues and when he does peek his head out to say something it is usually some fringe issue not particularly popular with voters.

We are still a long way out, so maybe there was method to his madness, but at some point, Rand needs to wheel back around and focus on meat and potato issues that matter to middle class Americans.

[Maltheus]

Between the establishment's purge and all of the ISIS and Ukraine news, I'm surprised he's doing that well. He may end up having a harder time, getting the nom, than his father.

[Brett85]

When was the last thing he did or said something popular? First two years of his term, Rand was basically the point man for the Conservative position on issue after issue. Past year or so he's been MIA on a lot of the bigger issues and when he does peek his head out to say something it is usually some fringe issue not particularly popular with voters.

We are still a long way out, so maybe there was method to his madness, but at some point, Rand needs to wheel back around and focus on meat and potato issues that matter to middle class Americans.

That seems to be what he's been doing lately, writing editorials on conservative websites about how we need to dramatically cut spending and abolish federal departments.

[asurfaholic]

Ill start being concerned about polls once the debates start.

[samforpaul]

[QUOTE=AuH20;5794453]Granted, I'm not a fan of PPP, but it sounds like he bit off more than he could chew, instead of sticking with what got him elected in the first place.


Such as pandering to Mitch McConnell, the liberal woman in New England, etc.?

[francisco]

War Drums

[Smitty]

Time for another trip to the wailing wall!

[TheTexan]

They allowed Ron Paul's son to become a senator because its entertaining and the most damage he can do is a filibuster.

His favorability dropped because he started running for president. It's their way of telling him to know his place...

[TheTexan]

When was the last thing he did or said something popular? First two years of his term, Rand was basically the point man for the Conservative position on issue after issue. Past year or so he's been MIA on a lot of the bigger issues and when he does peek his head out to say something it is usually some fringe issue not particularly popular with voters.

We are still a long way out, so maybe there was method to his madness, but at some point, Rand needs to wheel back around and focus on meat and potato issues that matter to middle class Americans.

This is probably the result of the Paul Effect. The closer to an election, the less people pay attention to libertarian viewpoints.

[kbs021]

Rand is attacked on so many shows now that the election is upon us. Every talk show host will continue to remind us that Rand is crazy, or that he can't win. Unfortunately for them, if Rand can win in Iowa and New Hampshire, then Rand will win in places that show others leading right now.

[AuH20]

Polls don't mean anything until a couple weeks before voting.

I think it remains to be seen whether he can win back those who turned their back on him or he will be perennially stuck in Ron Paul territory.
Of course, I wish the electorate wasn't braindead but we can't change the course of society.

[Brett85]

I think it remains to be seen whether he can win back those who turned their back on him or he will be perennially stuck in Ron Paul territory.
Of course, I wish the electorate wasn't braindead but we can't change the course of society.

None of the national public polls show him losing ground except for PPP.

[AuH20]

Rand Paul has to connect with a base that despises the Republican establishment. His alliance with Mitch McConnell did him no favors and his carte blanche approach towards illegal immigration is a political loser. I don't think he has to be a rabid fire breather calling for mass deportations but he has to emphasize that there are millions of Americans who are being directly shafted by the corporate-government complex in regards to illegal immigration. If he can't do that, he's done. If any of the candidates can hitch their wagon to a extremely irate base, they can weather their way through the media bias and the virulent attacks from the establishment.

[Brett85]

Rand Paul has to connect with a base that despises the Republican establishment. His alliance with Mitch McConnell did him no favors and his carte blanche approach towards illegal immigration is a political loser. I don't think he has to be a rabid fire breather calling for mass deportations but he has to emphasize that there are millions of Americans who are being directly shafted by the corporate-government complex in regards to illegal immigration. If he can't do that, he's done. If any of the candidates can hitch their wagon to a extremely irate base, they can weather their way through the media bias and the virulent attacks from the establishment.

The most conservative candidate never wins the GOP nomination. See Romney, McCain, Dole, etc.

[AuH20]

The most conservative candidate never wins the GOP nomination. See Romney, McCain, Dole, etc.

because the more conservative candidates all kill each other in the earlier states and never are allowed to build up momentum. The establishment players always have the party backing, money and staying power to be the last folks at the table. Jeb Bush is a horrible candidate but he will be undoubtedly be a finalist for the reasons I outlined.

[RabbitMan]

He is doing just fine, I don't see what the grumbling is all about. He has stumbled on several issues, but they don't say that he is made of Teflon without a reason. Lesser politicians would be shut out by dumb moves, and yet he just keeps bouncing back as if destiny is calling and there is nothing that is going to stop him. Like a man coming over the hill singing...

He has also made many moves that will prove to be popular with the general electorate and, down the road, to which he can point to when comments on electability arise.

At this point his job is to maintain good favorables, maintain his image as someone both republicans and dems find interesting, and maintain 10+% in the polls until the debates. He has got a Grade A campaign staff surrounding him, he has got a lot of positions that set him up as the 'Not Bush' mainstream candidate, and he has a pretty sharp wit. If he can't do it, I don't know who could.