It's been over 7 Years since I joined!

[fatjohn]

It's been over seven years that I've been on the forum.

All these years doom and gloom was just about the corner, total collapse was coming.
But it's not here.

No government ever has to pay off the debt, they only have to pay the interest on the debt and that is no problem.
Interest on the debt was a lousy 271 Billion or 6.4% of the budget in 2014. It was 15% in 1996 and nothing happened then either.

QE just props up the debt market and it flows over into the stock market and yeah maybe its a bit exuberant now with the DOW at 18000 and average P/E ratios of what? 26? but it's nothing special and a 30 to 40% crash from these levels, that would be hardly the doom and gloom we were all promised to await us.

The russians are moving away from the dollar and looking toward China sure but nothing has happened so far and their treasury reserves have dwindled to only a paltry 86B dollar. If they would sell everything tomorrow it wouldn't be enough to rock the markets. They've bought gold sure but again not enough to wreck havoc. The chinese and the japanese are nicely holding on to their treasuries, holdings that become irrelevant over time since they remain stable while the entire market grows.

Inflation is low despite of the three QE's, banks are not so reliant on the savings of their customers, they get a new line of funds now, straight from the fed.

Oil is cheap again, the ghawar field does not seem to have any issues with hubberts peak. The US is again one of the top producers. Russia lost a bit of its power in the seven years that I've been here.

The seven years also bought us some time to prepare for the switch to more sustainable fuels. Wind and Solar hardly need any subsidies if any to be competitive with other plants

So where is my crash? I already put my gold aboard my boat ready to have a terrible accident. I am totally ready for it. Bring on the end!

[DamianTV]

It's been over seven years that I've been on the forum.

All these years doom and gloom was just about the corner, total collapse was coming.
But it's not here.

No government ever has to pay off the debt, they only have to pay the interest on the debt and that is no problem.
Interest on the debt was a lousy 271 Billion or 6.4% of the budget in 2014. It was 15% in 1996 and nothing happened then either.

QE just props up the debt market and it flows over into the stock market and yeah maybe its a bit exuberant now with the DOW at 18000 and average P/E ratios of what? 26? but it's nothing special and a 30 to 40% crash from these levels, that would be hardly the doom and gloom we were all promised to await us.

The russians are moving away from the dollar and looking toward China sure but nothing has happened so far and their treasury reserves have dwindled to only a paltry 86B dollar. If they would sell everything tomorrow it wouldn't be enough to rock the markets. They've bought gold sure but again not enough to wreck havoc. The chinese and the japanese are nicely holding on to their treasuries, holdings that become irrelevant over time since they remain stable while the entire market grows.

Inflation is low despite of the three QE's, banks are not so reliant on the savings of their customers, they get a new line of funds now, straight from the fed.

Oil is cheap again, the ghawar field does not seem to have any issues with hubberts peak. The US is again one of the top producers. Russia lost a bit of its power in the seven years that I've been here.

The seven years also bought us some time to prepare for the switch to more sustainable fuels. Wind and Solar hardly need any subsidies if any to be competitive with other plants

So where is my crash? I already put my gold aboard my boat ready to have a terrible accident. I am totally ready for it. Bring on the end!

Where is the crash? Wait until October. Stock Market crashes seem to be cyclical, about every 7 years or so. It might happen sooner than that, or later, but really, it doesnt matter, it WILL happen! When it does, I have a feeling this may be "The Last Crash". In perspective, since youve been here all this time, things definitely have not gotten any better.

+Rep for sticking with us for the whole time.

We are the ones that will create the Paradigm Shift, end the Monopoly on Belief of the Status Quo that "everything is awesome", and will be the ones that are responsible for making the world a better place once the "Crash" finally happens. Stick with it partner, you are not alone. We all have a dog in this fight.

[RJB]

I hear you man. I met some old timer who was aware of the Fed and all that since the 1950s. It struck me as incredible how that knowledge didn't lead to a premature death from the worry.

I didn't really start to understand the full scope until 2006. Now, I'm aware, but I don't sweat it. What comes will come whenever it does. I see no point in having a premature heart attack for something that may not kill me anyway.

[fatjohn]

Where is the crash? Wait until October. Stock Market crashes seem to be cyclical, about every 7 years or so. It might happen sooner than that, or later, but really, it doesnt matter, it WILL happen! When it does, I have a feeling this may be "The Last Crash". In perspective, since youve been here all this time, things definitely have not gotten any better.

+Rep for sticking with us for the whole time.

We are the ones that will create the Paradigm Shift, end the Monopoly on Belief of the Status Quo that "everything is awesome", and will be the ones that are responsible for making the world a better place once the "Crash" finally happens. Stick with it partner, you are not alone. We all have a dog in this fight.

I don't know, as I've stated, I'm basically becoming more and more doubtful.

I no longer think a major government like US Japan or France, Germany, UK will become insolvent.
Hyperinflation is not likely to happen, IMO
A stock market crash, yes likely, but not as severe as 08.

Up untill two years ago I would have probably said that all three of them were imminent.

[DamianTV]

I don't know, as I've stated, I'm basically becoming more and more doubtful.

I no longer think a major government like US Japan or France, Germany, UK will become insolvent.
Hyperinflation is not likely to happen, IMO
A stock market crash, yes likely, but not as severe as 08.

Up untill two years ago I would have probably said that all three of them were imminent.

Then are things getting Better, or Worse? General question, not just your life, but for everyone.

For every single person I know, things have only gotten progressively worse. Thats me, what is your perspective?

[Ronin Truth]

It's been over seven years that I've been on the forum.

All these years doom and gloom was just about the corner, total collapse was coming.
But it's not here.

No government ever has to pay off the debt, they only have to pay the interest on the debt and that is no problem.
Interest on the debt was a lousy 271 Billion or 6.4% of the budget in 2014. It was 15% in 1996 and nothing happened then either.

QE just props up the debt market and it flows over into the stock market and yeah maybe its a bit exuberant now with the DOW at 18000 and average P/E ratios of what? 26? but it's nothing special and a 30 to 40% crash from these levels, that would be hardly the doom and gloom we were all promised to await us.

The russians are moving away from the dollar and looking toward China sure but nothing has happened so far and their treasury reserves have dwindled to only a paltry 86B dollar. If they would sell everything tomorrow it wouldn't be enough to rock the markets. They've bought gold sure but again not enough to wreck havoc. The chinese and the japanese are nicely holding on to their treasuries, holdings that become irrelevant over time since they remain stable while the entire market grows.

Inflation is low despite of the three QE's, banks are not so reliant on the savings of their customers, they get a new line of funds now, straight from the fed.

Oil is cheap again, the ghawar field does not seem to have any issues with hubberts peak. The US is again one of the top producers. Russia lost a bit of its power in the seven years that I've been here.

The seven years also bought us some time to prepare for the switch to more sustainable fuels. Wind and Solar hardly need any subsidies if any to be competitive with other plants

So where is my crash? I already put my gold aboard my boat ready to have a terrible accident. I am totally ready for it. Bring on the end!

BAZINGA!!

[ILUVRP]

i agree that reading kitco and other forums that the crash is around the corner , it will happen but not until we get rid of free money ( qe's ) .

with the cheap money the best thing the goverment could do is recycle all the high interest debt with cheaper debt as soon as they can , we all know our debt will never be paid off no matter how much we bitch-rant-rave about it .

[DamianTV]

i agree that reading kitco and other forums that the crash is around the corner , it will happen but not until we get rid of free money ( qe's ) .

with the cheap money the best thing the goverment could do is recycle all the high interest debt with cheaper debt as soon as they can , we all know our debt will never be paid off no matter how much we bitch-rant-rave about it .

Very few people understand how money is created. Creating a Dollar in currency also creates In Excess of a Dollar in Debt. $1 cash = $1.10 debt.

IMPOSSIBLE TO EVER REPAY.

If all the cash is used to pay off as much debt as can be paid, all currency would end, but the Debt would remain. This is by design. Oh, and for the record, EVERY Fiat Currency has killed its host nation. Sooner or later, it WILL collapse. Not if, just when. And things are gonna probably take a turn for the worse this year when Wall St, who has stolen everything from Main Street, does its cyclical crash. These crashes are also intentional. Thats when those with power to print or borrow end up coming in and buying everything for pennies on the dollar. How many Banks went under after 2008? And we are back to more record highs? 2008 was just a warm up...

Turn off the damn TV where they continuously pump into your brain that "Everything is Awesome". It isnt, but to convince you to give up your wealth, you are expected to believe it is. Dont believe it, not for a second.

[helmuth_hubener]

Excellent post and follow-up post, FatJohn! It really hammers home, I think, what should be a very important thing to keep in mind as an economist, or as someone trying to do applied economics such as a business man or an investor:

We just don't know what the future will bring.

As a business man, or at least as an entrepreneur, you make money by attempting to predict the future nonetheless, and to a large extent by making the future yourself. You predict the future by building the future.

As an investor, in stark contrast, I personally believe the wisest and most successful strategy will be to take a position of extreme, radical agnosticism regarding the future. You build a balanced and diversified portfolio that will just chug along no matter what may come. Something that will protect the wealth that you worked so hard to earn, in all possible situations: in prosperity, in recession, in inflation, even in depression, and yes, even in a hyper-inflationary crash.

You were way out in one direction, sure of a coming crash. The way I see it, you may have now swung too far the other direction. You say:

I no longer think a major government like US Japan or France, Germany, UK will become insolvent.
Hyperinflation is not likely to happen, IMO
A stock market crash, yes likely, but not as severe as 08.

But actually, we don't know. Governments do, in fact, go insolvent all the time. Crashes do, in fact, happen all the time. And even hyperinflation has occurred not once, not twice, but many times in the last century alone.

Rather than being skewed to one direction or another, rather than trying to predict the future, we ought to stake out a position right smack in the middle, at least in our investments.

The principles of common sense and sound economics that led you to believe that huge debt and massive money creation were reckless and destabilizing, and could lead to disaster, those principles are still true. The mistake that perhaps you made, which you have wisely realized and are retreating from, was to underestimate just how innovative and unpredictable human beings really are. That unpredictability means you can't know what's going to happen. I do not only say (like Damian) you can't know when; no, you can't even know what.

Good sense tells us that if the government creates more money it will be worth less. But that's only one half of it. Good sense also tells us that if people decide they want more of something, the price of that something will increase. This applies to money just as it does to Beanie Babies. We can't just only focus on supply, we also have to remember demand. The price of money is determined by supply... and demand!

[fatjohn]

Very few people understand how money is created. Creating a Dollar in currency also creates In Excess of a Dollar in Debt. $1 cash = $1.10 debt.

IMPOSSIBLE TO EVER REPAY.

If all the cash is used to pay off as much debt as can be paid, all currency would end, but the Debt would remain. This is by design. Oh, and for the record, EVERY Fiat Currency has killed its host nation. Sooner or later, it WILL collapse. Not if, just when. And things are gonna probably take a turn for the worse this year when Wall St, who has stolen everything from Main Street, does its cyclical crash. These crashes are also intentional. Thats when those with power to print or borrow end up coming in and buying everything for pennies on the dollar. How many Banks went under after 2008? And we are back to more record highs? 2008 was just a warm up...

Turn off the damn TV where they continuously pump into your brain that "Everything is Awesome". It isnt, but to convince you to give up your wealth, you are expected to believe it is. Dont believe it, not for a second.

I had a great reply and then it went away into the aether.

Basically yes all debt repayment is impossible. However federal debt is only a part of it. Plus who wants it to be paid off.
Gov debt is like corporate stocks. An instrument to put peoples savings in. There will always be demand for these instruments. As long as supply and demand is in check then there's no problem.

You buy a stock because you think thats what the assets and future profits are worth. You buy debt because you think it and interest will be repaid. But at no point do all stock holders or all debt holders want the institution to buy it all back. If it is another individual with savings to spend that will do just fine. Some companies go bankrupt just as governments and the last buyers are holding the bag usually vastly outnumbered by those who came before them who reeked the profits of the institutions.

But i dont think the moment for the us gov fail is near.
I dont think all is perfect. I see flaws in the system i see the unfairness in qe that literally hands money to those who already own bonds.
But i think its sustainable for far too long for me to keep on sweating.

Teotwawki is not upon us (probably)

[Dianne]

I don't know, as I've stated, I'm basically becoming more and more doubtful.

I no longer think a major government like US Japan or France, Germany, UK will become insolvent.
Hyperinflation is not likely to happen, IMO
A stock market crash, yes likely, but not as severe as 08.

Up untill two years ago I would have probably said that all three of them were imminent.

The U.S. pays its' bills by printing worthless money. It's a great jet set life that sexual predators such as Bill Clinton and Barack Obama love, Clinton with female virgin 11 year olds and Obama with virgin male 11 year olds ... But at some point the party will be over and our creditors will want more than counterfeit money. It will all come down to the real property which the Feds have already stolen from 10 to 20 million people via illegal foreclosures. I wouldn't own a piece of land in this country if my life depended upon it. It's only a matter of time before the State steals it to pay off debt.

[CaptainAmerica]

[AFTFNJ]

I say with all the technology & phys-ops we got another 5 to 10 years but like everybody knows you cant predict these things.

[dannno]

Greenspan Warns: There Will Be a “Significant Market Event… Something Big Is Going To Happen”
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...g-To-Happen%94


It's ok, fat people often lack patience.

[heavenlyboy34]

The U.S. pays its' bills by printing worthless money. It's a great jet set life that sexual predators such as Bill Clinton and Barack Obama love, Clinton with female virgin 11 year olds and Obama with virgin male 11 year olds ... But at some point the party will be over and our creditors will want more than counterfeit money. It will all come down to the real property which the Feds have already stolen from 10 to 20 million people via illegal foreclosures. I wouldn't own a piece of land in this country if my life depended upon it. It's only a matter of time before the State steals it to pay off debt.

And by borrowing from China, et al.

[Ronin Truth]

What were you promised when you first signed up?

[fatjohn]

What were you promised when you first signed up?

You talking to me?

[Ronin Truth]

You talking to me?

Yep.

[fatjohn]

Well definitely a collapse of the dollar.
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...ollar+collapse

Severe hyperinflation and the death of all Fiat currencies.

Runs on banks leading to prolonged bank holidays and massive chaos.

Food shortages in the super markets.

Severe crashes in the stock market.
Here is the epic thread from back in the day. http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...hlight=looming

When Tesla IPO'd at 20 the coming stock market collapse would swipe it right into bankruptcy.
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...ight=tesla+ipo (in the fourth post of the thread I was the first to comment positively on tesla but decided to wait a bit and hold on to gold instead, FML.)

Gold going to at least 5000.
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...ight=gold+5000

QE infinity

Default of the US government (often thought induced by massive dumping of treasury bills by China)

And many many more. I didn't bother to find appropriate threads for all of them but I'm pretty sure it could be done. And multiple of them.
I am also not saying it won't happen. Hey I've always been one of the believers and the system is pretty crony.

Only about the default, the government will never default.
The debt is by any measure sustainable at this point. And that's the major insight that sparked me to write the OP.

Edit: Oh yeah, the SHTF and the TEOTWAWKI acronyms we're also real popular back in da day. They promised me some TEOTWAWKI too.

[William Tell]

[Ronin Truth]

Well definitely a collapse of the dollar.
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...ollar+collapse

Severe hyperinflation and the death of all Fiat currencies.

Runs on banks leading to prolonged bank holidays and massive chaos.

Food shortages in the super markets.

Severe crashes in the stock market.
Here is the epic thread from back in the day. http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...hlight=looming

When Tesla IPO'd at 20 the coming stock market collapse would swipe it right into bankruptcy.
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...ight=tesla+ipo (in the fourth post of the thread I was the first to comment positively on tesla but decided to wait a bit and hold on to gold instead, FML.)

Gold going to at least 5000.
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...ight=gold+5000

QE infinity

Default of the US government (often thought induced by massive dumping of treasury bills by China)

And many many more. I didn't bother to find appropriate threads for all of them but I'm pretty sure it could be done. And multiple of them.
I am also not saying it won't happen. Hey I've always been one of the believers and the system is pretty crony.

Only about the default, the government will never default.
The debt is by any measure sustainable at this point. And that's the major insight that sparked me to write the OP.

Edit: Oh yeah, the SHTF and the TEOTWAWKI acronyms we're also real popular back in da day. They promised me some TEOTWAWKI too.

Good!

Now, all we need to establish is, who they are, and by what authority.

[mt4rp]

fatjohn, QE3 is still going strong

[fatjohn]

Good!

Now, all we need to establish is, who they are, and by what authority.

They are of course, like they always are when they are only referred to as "they", our reptillian overlords.
Or in other words, I am not sure I follow ...

[Ronin Truth]

They are of course, like they always are when they are only referred to as "they", our reptillian overlords.
Or in other words, I am not sure I follow ...

Not following is a very good option choice, we've already got way more than enough sheeple to deal with.

[helmuth_hubener]

I am also not saying it won't happen. Hey I've always been one of the believers and the system is pretty crony.

I share your attitude exactly, I think! Things might collapse, but things might not collapse. And even if they do collapse, that collapse will likely be quite different than we had expected it to be.

Only about the default, the government will never default.
The debt is by any measure sustainable at this point. And that's the major insight that sparked me to write the OP.

It really would make no sense for them to default. They have no reason to do it. They can always just tax more, and if that doesn't work, they can just print the money. For the feral gov't to default would just be stupid. You never know, but I agree with you that it's extreeeeemely unlikely to happen.

De-facto default, via inflation, that's another story. Very possible and in fact ongoing.

[Ronin Truth]

Benefit: No debt interest, after repudiation and default.
Benefit: Many fewer willing lenders.

[green73]

2008? Noob.

[fatjohn]

2008? Noob.

Long time lurker though

[green73]

Long time lurker though

[Danke]

Long time lurker though

Nothing wrong with being a lurker.