Is a Rand Paul/Jeb Bush Collision Course Inevitable?

[AuH20]

I think it's imperative that Rand separates himself from another high-profile grassroots candidate like Scott Walker before Super Tuesday. He has to make the race solely a national referendum against the Bush machine and our status quo political environment. If he can do that, he can win. If he gets stuck in the mire of that ALSO RAN group (Rubio, Santorum, etc.), it's going to be hard to overcome Bush's incredible money advantage.

[ctiger2]

IMO they do collide and Rand splits with the GOP running third party fulfilling Armstrongs' call.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/0...sing-for-2016/

I can't think of who else it would be, it has to be Rand.

[Ronin Truth]

Not if they do it the old fashioned way, and hammer out a deal between them in a smoke filled room.

[RabbitMan]

Does anyone here seriously think that Rand will run 3rd party?

[Ronin Truth]

Does anyone here seriously think that Rand will run 3rd party?

I think there are a few here.

[philipped]

Does anyone here seriously think that Rand will run 3rd party?

Endorsing & campaigning for incumbent senators in a midterm = GOP 4 lyf

[Galileo Galilei]

I think it's imperative that Rand separates himself from another high-profile grassroots candidate like Scott Walker before Super Tuesday. He has to make the race solely a national referendum against the Bush machine and our status quo political environment. If he can do that, he can win. If he gets stuck in the mire of that ALSO RAN group (Rubio, Santorum, etc.), it's going to be hard to overcome Bush's incredible money advantage.

Walker is peaking too early. He seems fresh now, but won't in 6 months. I also expect Walker to be eaten alive by the media.

[AuH20]

Walker is peaking too early. He seems fresh now, but won't in 6 months. I also expect Walker to be eaten alive by the media.

Walker scares me due to his impressive gubernatorial credentials. He could theoretically position himself as the anti-Bush candidate, though he doesn't possess Rand's long term staying power against an establishment fossil like Hillary Clinton.

[Matt Collins]

Scott Walker is the biggest threat to Rand

[AuH20]

Scott Walker is the biggest threat to Rand

Yep. He pulls votes from Rand. I hope Walker decides not to run. Rand is going to need every vote to keep up with Jeb Bush's coffers. The inherent problem is that Jeb Bush has so much stinking campaign money that he can literally create the illusion that he is the frontrunner.

[LawnWake]

Yep. He pulls votes from Rand. I hope Walker decides not to run. Rand is going to need every vote to keep up with Jeb Bush's coffers. The inherent problem is that Jeb Bush has so much stinking campaign money that he can literally create the illusion that he is the frontrunner.

No, no, no, no, no. Please, stop.

This is an exact repeat of our thinking errors in 2008 and 2012. Everyone said that.... Santorum, Bachmann, Cain, weren't actual frontrunners, but the media just created the "illusion" that they were. But that wasn't an "illusion"; they were actual frontrunners BECAUSE of the media. They actually did pull popular votes because of the media. That wasn't an illusion. The only illusion of 2012 was the one we created, where Ron Paul was a frontrunner. We did it to make ourselves feel better about how poorly Ron was actually doing and it kept us from behaving in accordance with reality.

All that money can make Jeb Bush an actual frontrunner. Treat him as such.

[Warlord]

Yes it's inevitable

[Uriah]

Walker and Bush are Rand's biggest opponents.

[AuH20]

No, no, no, no, no. Please, stop.

This is an exact repeat of our thinking errors in 2008 and 2012. Everyone said that.... Santorum, Bachmann, Cain, weren't actual frontrunners, but the media just created the "illusion" that they were. But that wasn't an "illusion"; they were actual frontrunners BECAUSE of the media. They actually did pull popular votes because of the media. That wasn't an illusion. The only illusion of 2012 was the one we created, where Ron Paul was a frontrunner. We did it to make ourselves feel better about how poorly Ron was actually doing and it kept us from behaving in accordance with reality.

All that money can make Jeb Bush an actual frontrunner. Treat him as such.

I totally agree with you. I was just referring to the fact that you're probably not going to meet many actual Jeb Bush supporters on the street, but his impressive donor list can easily help him overcome the lack of organic grassroots fervor. He can literally buy a grassroots following or least the appearance of one.

[helmuth_hubener]

Walker is peaking too early. He seems fresh now, but won't in 6 months. I also expect Walker to be eaten alive by the media.

Yes, well, you actually have had a front-row seat seeing Walker up close and personal for five years now, and you know as well as I do: he really has no charisma. He's quite boring and not particularly likable.

Also, under Walker government spending has not gone down! Little things like this, sometimes known as facts, don't seem to really matter to anyone, anywhere, ever. Everyone just goes along with the narrative. But they matter to me, and the facts tell us:

Scott Walker is a boring, status quo, big-government man.

2010 55.84 billion
2011 56.89 billion
2012 55.81 billion
2013 55.93 billion, estimated

-- http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/...s2li111mcn_F0t

[CaptUSA]

Scott Walker is the biggest threat to Rand

That's one way to think about it.

The whole "Scott Walker surge" that we've been seeing lately in the media has been concocted by the Bush's and the RNC. It's a flanking maneuver. "Send in the Irish - they're free" It's an attempt to weaken Rand's support.

If we're smart, we use the fabrication of Scott Walker to help us. Jump on his bandwagon. Start calling for a Paul/Walker ticket. If they want to inflate his bubble, let them. Eventually, when it pops, we need to be there to benefit from it. Let those supporters find a home. You want the Irish to fight us? Send 'em over and we'll make friends.

[LawnWake]

I totally agree with you. I was just referring to the fact that you're probably not going to meet many actual Jeb Bush supporters on the street, but his impressive donor list can easily help him overcome the lack of organic grassroots fervor. He can literally buy a grassroots following or least the appearance of one.

Yeah, I understand it. I may be a little overly cautious, but I'm just really trying to avoid us making many of the same mistakes we made previously. And not taking oponents seriously enough was one of our biggest issues.

I know some people here are annoyed by it, or think I'm nagging. But I think grounding ourselves to reality intelectually is of utmost importance and something we failed at during the previous campaigns.

[philipped]

I'm just really trying to avoid us making many of the same mistakes we made previously. And not taking oponents seriously enough was one of our biggest issues.

grounding ourselves to reality intelectually is of utmost importance and something we failed at during the previous campaigns.

necessary

[helmuth_hubener]

Hmm, OK, that data is junk. Includes local spending.

Here is the real deal. It makes Walker look worse, like the big-government bozo he is. Let's quote Walker himself, shall we:

"The Governor recommends an operating budget of $29.261 billion in fiscal year 2011-12 and
$29.984 billion in fiscal year 2012-13."
"The Governor recommends an operating budget of $33.652 billion in fiscal year 2013-14 and
$34.347 billion in fiscal year 2014-15."
"The Governor recommends an operating budget of $35.938 billion in fiscal year 2015-16 and
$32.347 billion in fiscal year 2016-17."
-- http://doa.wi.gov/Documents/DEBF/Bud...011-13_BIB.pdf
http://www.doa.state.wi.us/documents...et/bib1315.pdf
http://www.doa.state.wi.us/Documents...et/bib1517.pdf

Up, up, up, and away!

Here are the actual budgets, as Walker signed them:
FY11 31,705,633,900
FY12 32,396,034,000
FY13 33,644,919,500

FY14 34,361,871,300


Keep in mind that there is a very strong line-item veto in Wisconsin.

Now this stuff is complicated to wade through, because, again, no one cares at all about it except for me. You can find a umptymillion articles written about Scott Walker's budgets, but zip about what those budgets actually are. So, here is a different report from Ballotopedia:

"Between fiscal year 2009 and fiscal year 2013, Wisconsin's total expenditures increased by approximately $2.7 billion, from $40.1 billion in 2009 to $42.8 billion in 2013."
-- http://ballotpedia.org/Wisconsin_state_budget

So, one way or another, one can definitely say: spending went up under Scott Walker.

Spending went up by a lot under Scott Walker.

[69360]

If Jeb can win IA and NH it's all over and Rand will drop out.

I don't discount the possibility of that happening.

[Galileo Galilei]

If Jeb can win IA and NH it's all over and Rand will drop out.

I don't discount the possibility of that happening.

No way Jeb could win NH. He might have a shot at Iowa, but I doubt it.

[Uriah]

No way Jeb could win NH. He might have a shot at Iowa, but I doubt it.

With so many potential candidates I wouldn't rule out anyone. Romney virtually won Iowa and won NH. If he can do it so can Bush.

[Galileo Galilei]

With so many potential candidates I wouldn't rule out anyone. Romney virtually won Iowa and won NH. If he can do it so can Bush.

Bush has horrible favorables in NH, not viable there. He has to focus on red states and maybe Iowa, places like SC.

[acptulsa]

With so many potential candidates I wouldn't rule out anyone. Romney virtually won Iowa and won NH. If he can do it so can Bush.

Romney won New Hampshire because a bunch of the repeat serial idiots who elected him in Massachusetts then fled that state for New Hampshire. Jeb can't count on anything of the sort there.

Why those people who were driven out of Taxachusetts by the guy then wanted him to drive them out of the whole country is another question. Maybe it was a simple case of misery loving company...

[cindy25]

Rand might be pushed by the others to run 3rd party. I hope he does, as that would be the end of GOP neo-con nominees.

if they run a primary opponent in the KY senate race, and somehow win that primary Rand could say the hell with it, and run 3rd party. they have tried to knock off Ron, and Amash in primaries. a senate primary might even be easier for the establishment as senators have little connection to their constituents.

[sylcfh]

Jeb is toast after his comments on immigration.

[r3volution 3.0]

*I hope so*

[Matt Collins]

Rand might be pushed by the others to run 3rd party. I hope he does, as that would be the end of GOP neo-con nominees.

Will never happen.

[anaconda]

Does anyone here seriously think that Rand will run 3rd party?

If Rand Paul hasn't already threatened the establishment, through the proper back channels, with a third party run then he has passed up a huge bargaining chip.

[anaconda]

Will never happen.

If they treat him like they did Ron then I think all bets are off.