Is This Gold And Silver Rally For Real? Here's What To Watch

[NACBA]

After struggling for much of 2014, gold and silver have experienced some respite in the past few months as Eurozone and emerging market fears surfaced once again. The relentless U.S. dollar rally and the commodities bust hurt demand for precious metals last year, but worries about Greece leaving the Eurozone and currency turmoil from Russia to Turkey to Brazil helped gold to climb 13 percent and silver 20 percent since November.

Though many precious metals bulls are starting to get excited again, gold and silver have had several temporary rallies that fizzled out since their peak in 2011. Is the current rally for real, or will it end in another disappointment? To answer that question, let’s take a look at the technical picture.

Earlier this month, gold cleared both its $1,250 resistance level and the diagonal downtrend resistance line, which are both support levels now. Gold is now underneath its $1,300 resistance level, which has some significance as a round psychological number that caused gold to bump its head two weeks ago. If gold decisively breaks $1,300, $1,400 is the next significant resistance level to watch. On the other hand, if gold cannot close above $1,300 and manages to fall back below the $1,250 support level, it may correct to even lower levels.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecol...what-to-watch/

[Zippyjuan]

Fear is the biggest motivator of gold sales.

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

Fear is the biggest motivator of gold sales.

You could also say that about insurance, markedly increased vaccine schedules, surveillance, overdone safety regulations, helicopter parenting, police militarization, ever increasing laws, etc.

Anyway, people should not sell right now. I don't know nothing about nothing, but will bet that gold ain't going back below $400 ever.

[ctiger2]

Fear is the biggest motivator of gold sales.

Yep, the fear the raging wildfire in your backyard might make you want to buy some fire insurance, or the fear that your health is declining might make you want to get some health insurance. It's natural that if you fear your wealth is coming under attack you would want to get some wealth insurance, aka Gold. SMART.

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

Warren Buffet must've been shaking in his boots when he bought all that silver.

[The Gold Standard]

Trying to play the short term game with metals, especially gold, is a loser's bet. The supply is so grossly inflated by paper claims to gold that does not exist, it is impossible to know the real price of physical gold in U.S. dollars.

[Zippyjuan]

Gold makes its largest gains during times of economic uncertainty (perhaps I should have been more specific on what fears). Previous gold bubble was in 1980- when both unemployment and inflation were double digits (adjusted for inflation, it hasn't been anywhere near that level since). As both rates came down, so did the price of gold (about a 20 year decline). The latest bubble grew during the economic collapse of 2007- 2008. Gold bumped up again a bit this year when worries about Europe's economy rose.

[Bossobass]

Gold shot up in the 70s because after 4 decades it was again legal for citizens to buy and hold and it was the first time gold was thrown to the free market, free of having it's price set by .gov.

Fear is irrelevant.

There are 3.8 billion ounces of gold in the world and the supply is increasing by 1.75% each year (probably less for the next few years due to mine closures), whereas there are 5,300 billion US dollars in the world and the supply is increasing by 9% each year.

The USDX is weighted against a basket of currencies, 58% of which weight is the Euro, which didn't exist in 1981, where gold finally settled to around $400. The dollar has lost 68% of it's (gold) purchasing power since then. $400 divided by 32% = $1250. Fear had nothing to do with that. In order for fear to matter, then manipulation of the price of gold would have to disappear and gold would be $10,000/Oz and the prisons would be overflowing with white collars.

[ctiger2]

Gold makes its largest gains during times of economic uncertainty (perhaps I should have been more specific on what fears). Previous gold bubble was in 1980- when both unemployment and inflation were double digits (adjusted for inflation, it hasn't been anywhere near that level since). As both rates came down, so did the price of gold (about a 20 year decline). The latest bubble grew during the economic collapse of 2007- 2008. Gold bumped up again a bit this year when worries about Europe's economy rose.

But you don't get it yet, Gold isn't doing anything. 1oz of Gold is still just 1oz of Gold. It's the Govt dictated fiat currency you're valuing the Gold in that's swinging up and down violently. How many pieces of paper for that 1oz this month? Gold "gains" during time of economic certainty translates to Govt dictated fiat currency loss of confidence/value during time of economic uncertainty.

[Zippyjuan]

Gold shot up in the 70s because after 4 decades it was again legal for citizens to buy and hold and it was the first time gold was thrown to the free market, free of having it's price set by .gov.

Fear is irrelevant.

There are 3.8 billion ounces of gold in the world and the supply is increasing by 1.75% each year (probably less for the next few years due to mine closures), whereas there are 5,300 billion US dollars in the world and the supply is increasing by 9% each year.

The USDX is weighted against a basket of currencies, 58% of which weight is the Euro, which didn't exist in 1981, where gold finally settled to around $400. The dollar has lost 68% of it's (gold) purchasing power since then. $400 divided by 32% = $1250. Fear had nothing to do with that. In order for fear to matter, then manipulation of the price of gold would have to disappear and gold would be $10,000/Oz and the prisons would be overflowing with white collars.

So why has gold lost a third of its value against the dollar since 2009?

[Bossobass]

So why has gold lost a third of its value against the dollar since 2009?

Gold is up 30% from 2009 average against the USD.

Maybe you mean gold's 2012 all-time spot price peak in USD? What was the USDX then vs today? -30%.

Gold is up 6% this year.

If your thing is to play the USD against gold as an investment (which we all know is not true in your case), then all you would have had to do to prepare for the new millennium was buy gold with USD. You'd be up 500% without ever having to have made a single trade since. If you'd made a few sell/buy/sell trades since Y2K, you'd be up 1000%.

What does the future hold for gold and/or silver vs USD? Yikes, that's way too scary to even contemplate, you'd better buy the DOW.

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

So why has gold lost a third of its value against the dollar since 2009?

Why has gold quintupled in price since 2001?

[oyarde]

Warren Buffet must've been shaking in his boots when he bought all that silver.

Well , my boots are just fine , if I see that $#@!er though , I need some tips on how to get by with not paying my taxes .