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Thread: Still No Crash: Were Austrian Economists Wrong about the Dollar? – Robert Murphy

  1. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by heavenlyboy34 View Post
    You win the internets, my friend. The "Liberty Movement", as defined on these forums, is more about sloganeering and begging for scraps at the Emperor's table nowadays. Long gone are the days when the radicals of the world dared to push back. Now the radicals are silenced and marginalized by the "conservatives" and such.
    "If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough." - Albert Einstein

    "for I have sworn upon the altar of god eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man. - Thomas Jefferson.



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  3. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by osan View Post
    ...
    I feel ya. We all do. Here's what keeps me going, and will for the rest of my life.

    Two Words. Ron Paul.

    If he can do what he did for all those decades, fighting the good fight against such odds, so can I, especially, as compared to him, in my measly way.

    Look at how long it took for him to see anything even close to fruit. And look at how much the hockey stick has begun to tilt. Worldwide.

    Be ever hopeful, as he always was and still is.

    Ultimately, we win. Not a doubt in my mind.
    The bigger government gets, the smaller I wish it was.
    My new motto: More Love, Less Laws



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  5. #33
    Osan.

    If that doesn't wake the people of this land to the harsh reality that stares them in the face this very hour, then we deserve the damnation that completes itself upon us.
    I understand your words. I struggle with them myself on a daily basis..
    I have also recently witnessed the destruction of a family that I knew. gobbled up and destroyed by this very monster.
    thus, I now can define my enemy, he is those who WILL NOT pay attention. and learn.
    I do not consider this a very high bar in our days and times.
    what I continue to not understand.. is that my very narrow circle of friends. contains people who are VERY smart and clever.
    why can they not employ this same intellect to the problem at hand?
    that they do not, or cannot see the problem both concerns and confounds me.

    that is probably why I hang around this place. I felt less alone in reading your words.
    thanks friend.


    Last edited by HVACTech; 01-24-2015 at 09:44 PM.
    "If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough." - Albert Einstein

    "for I have sworn upon the altar of god eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man. - Thomas Jefferson.

  6. #34
    Wait until October...
    1776 > 1984

    The FAILURE of the United States Government to operate and maintain an
    Honest Money System , which frees the ordinary man from the clutches of the money manipulators, is the single largest contributing factor to the World's current Economic Crisis.

    The Elimination of Privacy is the Architecture of Genocide

    Belief, Money, and Violence are the three ways all people are controlled

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Our central bank is not privately owned.

  7. #35
    Looks to me like after making predictions of coming inflation for years Murphy is still telling the same story for why it is coming while making more inaccurate (so far, another ~7 months later...) baseless predictions. My question to people like Dannno is how long are you going to give them on these predictions? If you allow an unlimited time horizon then I guess they will never be wrong in your mind.

  8. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by cocrehamster View Post
    Looks to me like after making predictions of coming inflation for years Murphy is still telling the same story for why it is coming while making more inaccurate (so far, another ~7 months later...) baseless predictions. My question to people like Dannno is how long are you going to give them on these predictions? If you allow an unlimited time horizon then I guess they will never be wrong in your mind.
    Doomsday is always just Six Months Away.

    The thing is, we know it is coming. It is inevitable. For many people, the stark reality is too harsh for their minds to grasp, and they go into a perpetual state of Denial. They will hear what they want to hear, whether it is all the doom and gloom, or unicorns and rainbows, and will ignore anything that opposes what they want to believe. Many many people are so hopelessly dependant on this existing system that they will fight to protect it because it protects "their" way of life. What worked for them does not work for us. A good education is supposed to be a path to a good job. There is no good education and there are no good jobs. But in order for them to maintain their way of life, the perpetual ponzi scheme that is our economy has to be fed new victims, us. We have gone so far down that we couldnt contribute to their way of life even if we wanted.

    A person can ignore Reality, but they can not ignore the consequences of ignoring Reality.

    When everything finally does fall apart, people will no longer be able to embrace their Denial. This is where it gets dangerous, because the next stage of grief is Anger. This is when there will be Riots, but for all the wrong reasons. People wont Riot as long as what they see does not threaten their means of continued existence. If you wanted to start a Riot tomorrow, cut off both Pensions and all forms of Welfare. This country will collapse in a matter of hours.

    There is an upside to this. Those who are aware of what is coming will have already dealt with their own inner turmoil. Most people here will be well beyond the Anger phase. Military grunts are instilled with a philosophy of "hurry up and wait", but it is rarely addressed why such a philosophy is embraced. Hurry up and wait is nothing more than "be prepared". Hence, why all the "Preppers" are being associated with nutters. People that have already prepared for the inevitable collapse of this country will stand the best chance of survival. Not only will they be physically prepared, but psychologically. Everyone else will scurry around like rats that lost their precious cheese and begin to eat each other. They will be so angry over having literally lost everything that they will place blame on the very first person that expresses an opposing point of view. This Ponzi Paradigm needs to die. Once it dies, then and only then, can we start to rebuild from the ashes of what was once the most powerful and free nation in human history.
    1776 > 1984

    The FAILURE of the United States Government to operate and maintain an
    Honest Money System , which frees the ordinary man from the clutches of the money manipulators, is the single largest contributing factor to the World's current Economic Crisis.

    The Elimination of Privacy is the Architecture of Genocide

    Belief, Money, and Violence are the three ways all people are controlled

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Our central bank is not privately owned.

  9. #37
    Whether or not we see "Doomsday" in six months... There has NEVER been an Up market for more than seven years. It's time for another recession. That's just the cycle of the market...

    SOOO I believe that the instability of the market will begin to show signs in coming months - and as people lose confidence in the markets, precious metals will begin to move. At current prices, I think one can conservatively estimate that they're positioned for profit as the market begins it's descent...

    Gold & Silver Price Charts in Real-Time

  10. #38
    Doomsday is always six months away. But when it comes, all will be forgiven and peace and tranquility will reign on the Earth for a thousand years. There won't be any greedy bankers or corporations. Everybody will be millionaires and everything will cost a nickel. Unemployment will be a thing of the past. No governments to tell people what to do. Everybody will be nice and nobody will be poor. Rainbows for everybody!

    But only those "in the know" who "prepared" will be saved. They will not feel pain from the chaos.

  11. #39
    Devil's Advoacte post.

    What if we are wrong? What if the economy doesnt crash and everyone ends up living the unicorns and rainbows lives? What if people dont prepare for financial catastrophe because the idea of this paradigm shift is too difficult to accept? What if I am wrong? What if I got burned so many times in my life by the financial elite that I questioned the system itself? What if the Financial Elite are wrong and the world really is headed toward a collapse? What if Zippy took a step back and challenged his own ideas just to understand them better and concluded he was wrong? What if Peter Shiff was actually wrong? What if this was a Divide and Conquer tactic that splits us into two categories: Our system is a Ponzi Scam, and "it worked fine for me" and that creates Friction that keeps us from moving forward? What if Doomsday really was six months away? What if the broken clock just happens to be right for a change? What if the Keynsian Economist supporters held on to an idea that in the end will only benefit the Financial Eliete? What if Zippy realized he doesnt have to worry about us, but has to worry about the Financial Elite considering him to no longer be an asset and as a result, it puts his very life at risk? What if the minds of the very people we are trying to save refuse to let go of the chains they revere because of some misplaced values that are not even their own? What if I am wrong? What if you are wrong? Are we even asking the right questions?

    What if I try to answer some of these questions? What if we are all wrong and the world doesnt end in Financial or Nuclar War? If we are wrong and the world doesnt end, then so be it. But to answer the question, should not both possible outcomes be addressed? What if we are correct and WWIII is right around the corner? What if humanity is enslaved to the dominant will of the Financial Elite to such a degree that our suffering becomes eternal? Which one of the two possible outcomes is the world we want to create for ourselves?
    1776 > 1984

    The FAILURE of the United States Government to operate and maintain an
    Honest Money System , which frees the ordinary man from the clutches of the money manipulators, is the single largest contributing factor to the World's current Economic Crisis.

    The Elimination of Privacy is the Architecture of Genocide

    Belief, Money, and Violence are the three ways all people are controlled

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Our central bank is not privately owned.

  12. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by DamianTV View Post
    What if I am wrong?
    Yes! That is exactly the question that I believe we should ask ourselves repeatedly and sincerely when investing. Because, chances are: we are!

    What if I am wrong? What if you are wrong? Are we even asking the right questions?
    This should not be taken as a "devil's advocate" post at all. This is wonderful, perfect advice to anyone trying to invest their hard-earned savings.

    But to answer the question, should not both possible outcomes be addressed?
    YES! You may have just got across my point far better than perhaps I ever have. "Preppers" all too often are "prepared" only for their specific scenario they are convinced will play out. They have a set of futures in their heads that they are convinced will happen -- one kind of collapse or another -- and prepare only for that. Instead, we should be balanced. We should prepare for disaster, of course, yes, but we should also prepare for prosperity. It's possible to totally tear your life up trying to prepare for the Apocalypse. People do it! It's a shame.

    And from an investment perspective, it's too risky. It will lose you money.



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  14. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by Ronin Truth View Post
    “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” -- Yogi Berra
    Yes, but Ron Paul has always said that the field tends to make long term predictions, and not actually forecast timelines. There's either some merit to that or it's akin to Jeanne Dixon predicting the assassination of JFK, in that she predicted a presidential calamity every election cycle for a couple of decades.

  15. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by angelatc View Post
    Yes, but Ron Paul has always said that the field tends to make long term predictions, and not actually forecast timelines. There's either some merit to that or it's akin to Jeanne Dixon predicting the assassination of JFK, in that she predicted a presidential calamity every election cycle for a couple of decades.

    It gets late early out there.
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

  16. #43
    Mark Spitznagel is rarely wrong

  17. #44
    All currencies fail. Currency is not money. Fiat currency is not money.

  18. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by kfarnan View Post
    All currencies fail. Currency is not money. Fiat currency is not money.
    "Money" is anything that is the "most marketable commodity" in a given economy. So if people used toilet-paper in their exchanges to the extent that it becomes the most marketable commodity in an economy then that toilet-paper IS money.

    https://mises.org/library/carl-menge...y-origin-money
    There is enormous inertia — a tyranny of the status quo — in private and especially governmental arrangements. Only a crisis — actual or perceived — produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes politically inevitable
    - Milton Friedman

  19. #46
    Austrians I think underestimate the Feds ability to monitor and mitigate catastrophic bubble damage. There is a finite number of accounts and numbers. It is not hard for a computer to "see" the model when every FRN account is wired into the central bank.

    Currency death will be slow and painful if they do it properly. Crack up booms I think aren't as much of a risk as they were in the days of Mises.
    When a trumpet sounds in a city, do not the people tremble?
    When disaster comes to a city, has not the Lord caused it? Amos 3:6

  20. #47
    A 98% loss of purchasing power in 100 years and $200+ TRILLIONS in government debt, how much more of a crash do you need?

  21. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by Ronin Truth View Post
    A 98% loss of purchasing power in 100 years and $200+ TRILLIONS in government debt, how much more of a crash do you need?
    Well, everyone secretly yearns for the apocalypse, but God ain't gonna let no "event" steal His thunder.
    When a trumpet sounds in a city, do not the people tremble?
    When disaster comes to a city, has not the Lord caused it? Amos 3:6



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  23. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by wizardwatson View Post
    Well, everyone secretly yearns for the apocalypse, but God ain't gonna let no "event" steal His thunder.
    "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice. And because we fail to notice that we fail to notice there is little we can do to change until we notice how failing to notice shapes our thoughts and deeds." -- R.D. Laing

  24. #50
    I think Mike "Mish" Shedlock was right and Schiff was wrong.

  25. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Or Nothing II View Post
    "Money" is anything that is the "most marketable commodity" in a given economy. So if people used toilet-paper in their exchanges to the extent that it becomes the most marketable commodity in an economy then that toilet-paper IS money.

    https://mises.org/library/carl-menge...y-origin-money

    Classicaly currency is not the same as money.

    TP isn't: a store of value, fungible, durable or divisible.

    http://www.preservearticles.com/2010...-material.html
    Last edited by kfarnan; 04-29-2015 at 11:18 AM.

  26. #52
    Maybe there won't ever be another crash, because the Fed has mastered how to print $#@!loads of money while keeping it out of the economy.

    Seems like a sustainable solution to me.
    It's all about taking action and not being lazy. So you do the work, whether it's fitness or whatever. It's about getting up, motivating yourself and just doing it.
    - Kim Kardashian

    Donald Trump / Crenshaw 2024!!!!

    My pronouns are he/him/his

  27. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by heavenlyboy34 View Post
    sloganeering
    I dunno, 'Stand with Rand' is pretty clever tho
    It's all about taking action and not being lazy. So you do the work, whether it's fitness or whatever. It's about getting up, motivating yourself and just doing it.
    - Kim Kardashian

    Donald Trump / Crenshaw 2024!!!!

    My pronouns are he/him/his

  28. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by Ronin Truth View Post
    A 98% loss of purchasing power in 100 years and $200+ TRILLIONS in government debt, how much more of a crash do you need?
    Yes but look how much our economy has grown, clearly and correlatedly as a result of that
    It's all about taking action and not being lazy. So you do the work, whether it's fitness or whatever. It's about getting up, motivating yourself and just doing it.
    - Kim Kardashian

    Donald Trump / Crenshaw 2024!!!!

    My pronouns are he/him/his

  29. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by bxm042 View Post
    Yes but look how much our economy has grown, clearly and correlatedly as a result of that
    Actually we were more prosperous before the fed was created and destroyed the economy.

  30. #56
    How do you determine "prosperous"?



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  32. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    How do you determine "prosperous"?
    Able to keep what I earned/produced. I know, a foreign concept for you. Why are you here again?
    Pfizer Macht Frei!

    Openly Straight Man, Danke, Awarded Top Rated Influencer. Community Standards Enforcer.


    Quiz: Test Your "Income" Tax IQ!

    Short Income Tax Video

    The Income Tax Is An Excise, And Excise Taxes Are Privilege Taxes

    The Federalist Papers, No. 15:

    Except as to the rule of appointment, the United States have an indefinite discretion to make requisitions for men and money; but they have no authority to raise either by regulations extending to the individual citizens of America.

  33. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by kfarnan View Post
    Classicaly currency is not the same as money.

    TP isn't: a store of value, fungible, durable or divisible.

    http://www.preservearticles.com/2010...-material.html
    "Classically", money hasn't always been what you're proposing it to be either! Things like salt, tobacco, coffee beans, seashells & what not have all been used as "money", given the primary function of "money" is to facilitate exchange of non-fungible products. Today, nearly everywhere, government-paper is most frequently used to facilitate exchange of non-fungible products so they are "money".

    It goes without saying that gold & silver might serve better as money but as things stand right now, government paper IS money.
    There is enormous inertia — a tyranny of the status quo — in private and especially governmental arrangements. Only a crisis — actual or perceived — produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes politically inevitable
    - Milton Friedman

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