The 7 year econonic cycle of the Shemitah

[devil21]

Anyone read up on the Shemitah? Seems someone has found strong links between this religious observance period and economic upheaval. Definitely worth a read and further research.

http://www.examiner.com/article/shem...ncial-upheaval

As Cahn points out, the law of averages would dictate that there is only a one-in-seven chance, less than a 15 percent, of a recession or crash occurring within a Shemitah. When the statistics are examined, the relationship between financial upheaval and the Shemitah is far stronger than can be explained by random chance.

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This reminded me of this Christine Lagarde IMF speech in 2014, referencing numerology and the number 7. IMO, disregard the video's interpretation of the speech. All of Lagarde's numerology references were removed from the official IMF transcript of the speech.

[Zippyjuan]

Is there a seven year pattern in US economic crisies? We can try to count backwards. I will use this as a list of US economic recessions. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._United_States

He says 2015. OK. Not there yet so we can't say.
2008- The Great Recession actually hit in 2007. Close.
2001- Mild recession. Ok.
1994- Nothing.
1987- Stock Market Crash in October. But stocks finished the year higher than they started.
1980- short recession (six months)
1973- Stagflation following oil embargo
1966- nothing.
1959- nothing
1952- nothing
1945- recession due to government cuts in spending following WWII
1937- Second only to the Great Depression
1930- in the Great Depression which started year before- the stock market crash was 1929.
1923- Mild recession just before the Roaring 20's took off
1917- nothing
1910- Panic of 1910

So seven (that number again!) major economic events. Out of 15 which is only about half the time. If you consider that we have had some sort of recession about half the time, it doesn't say much than random chance that the theory captures the same ratio. And starting with 1910, we have had 20 recessions so it only captures about a third of what really happened.

But it is as good as any other system of trying to predict the market.

[devil21]

Is there a seven year pattern in US economic crisies? We can try to count backwards. I will use this as a list of US economic recessions. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._United_States

He says 2015. OK. Not there yet so we can't say.
2008- The Great Recession actually hit in 2007. Close.
2001- Mild recession. Ok.
1994- Nothing.
1987- Stock Market Crash in October. But stocks finished the year higher than they started.
1980- short recession (six months)
1973- Stagflation following oil embargo
1966- nothing.
1959- nothing
1952- nothing
1945- recession due to government cuts in spending following WWII
1937- Second only to the Great Depression
1930- in the Great Depression which started year before- the stock market crash was 1929.
1923- Mild recession just before the Roaring 20's took off
1917- nothing
1910- Panic of 1910

So seven (that number again!) major economic events. Out of 15 which is only about half the time. If you consider that we have had some sort of recession about half the time, it doesn't say much than random chance that the theory captures the same ratio. And starting with 1910, we have had 20 recessions so it only captures about a third of what really happened.

But it is as good as any other system of trying to predict the market.

I figured you'd be the first to jump on this thread lol.

You left out some important tipping points, like planes hitting buildings (2001) and 777 point drops (2008), among others. The content about possible Shemitah connections isn't about stock market movements only, rather bigger picture economic cycles of boom/bust and events that trigger them.

[Zippyjuan]

How about stocks? It claims that:

The Wall St. Journal’s list of the 20 largest one day stock market crashes includes 10 that are in a Shemitah year. Nine of these crashes were in Elul, the last month of the Shemitah, or Tishri, the first month of the year that follows the Shemitah (late September or October on our calendar). A further three crashes were in months that followed (November and December). The total of 13 crashes, more than half of the crashes, is far more than the 15 percent expected.

Link to the list: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/pag...a_alltime.html

Upon examining that list more closely (which is actually a couple of lists- largest points losses and largest percent losses)- most of those events occured in just a few different years- and not every seven years.

Of the Top Twenty Largest Point Losses list, eleven of them occured in 2008 (not surprising- a higher level Dow can lose more points more easily than a low level Dow). More than half. Others were 2011 (four and not one of his years), two from 2001, 1997, 1991, and 1987. So only six years comprise the twenty largest point drops in the Dow.

Top Twenty Largest Percentage Losses. Four from 2008. 2001 gets one. 1982- two. 1937- one, 1933-- two, 1932- two, 1931- one. Three from 1929. 1917, 1901, 1899.
So in terms of years when a major DOW crash occured, we have a list of 12 and only three of those years are in his "critical" ones (2008, 2001, and 1917) in the last century. 25% fit.

[Zippyjuan]

I figured you'd be the first to jump on this thread lol.

You left out some important tipping points, like planes hitting buildings (2001) and 777 point drops (2008), among others. The content about possible Shemitah connections isn't about stock market movements only, rather bigger picture economic cycles of boom/bust and events that trigger them.

You can find major events in every year.

[Zippyjuan]

Many stock market analysts have noted the tendency of the stock market to falter in the fall of the year. This correlation may be explained by the end of Shemitah, which occurs in September, and the recovery that follows.

This is true- September does tend to have the worst performance for stocks. But it is also the end of the fiscal year when investors either re-balance portfolios or sell to capture gains or losses for the previous year. But that is every year- not just every seven years of September.

[devil21]

This is true- September does tend to have the worst performance for stocks. But it is also the end of the fiscal year when investors either re-balance portfolios or sell to capture gains or losses for the previous year. But that is every year- not just every seven years of September.

Banks end their fiscal years in September? Do you have a source for that?

So seven (that number again!) major economic events. Out of 15 which is only about half the time. If you consider that we have had some sort of recession about half the time, it doesn't say much than random chance that the theory captures the same ratio.

You can find major events in every year.

You've argued here for years that the Federal Reserve has kept the economy stable. These quotes are what your arguments are now reduced to in 2015? These are tacit acknowledgements that the Fed has been a failure except to those with direct interest and connections to it.

[Zippyjuan]

No- I haven't said the Federal Reserve keep things stable all the time. I have argued that it wasn't any better without the Fed and getting rid of them would not necessarily be an improvement. People list all the economic crisies we have had since the Fed came into being when we had them just as often before that time. Bubbles and crashes happen no matter what you use for money or what type of banking system you have.

Actually the fiscal year can vary from business to business but the Federal Government is October though September so some choose to follow that. http://wiki.fool.com/When_Is_the_Fiscal_Year%3F

[devil21]

[wizardwatson]

I just finished reading Harbinger and Mystery of the Shemitah.

ZippyJuan, you are way off base. Has nothing to do with "predicting" anything. It's all about 9/11. Or at least, with respect to America it is. We are seeing the "pattern" of the Shemitah only as relates to highlighting the judgement coming to America. It is not some kind of natural phenomenon.

It's communication from the man upstairs.

I've started my own thread in the religion forum because I want to expand on not only the Shemitah but the message from the guy who communicated it originally as the Shemitah is really only just a part. I would be glad to elaborate on any questions in that thread.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...pooky-Shemitah

[devil21]

I just finished reading Harbinger and Mystery of the Shemitah.

ZippyJuan, you are way off base. Has nothing to do with "predicting" anything. It's all about 9/11. Or at least, with respect to America it is. We are seeing the "pattern" of the Shemitah only as relates to highlighting the judgement coming to America. It is not some kind of natural phenomenon.

It's communication from the man upstairs.

I've started my own thread in the religion forum because I want to expand on not only the Shemitah but the message from the guy who communicated it originally as the Shemitah is really only just a part. I would be glad to elaborate on any questions in that thread.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...pooky-Shemitah

Naaa, it's just selfish people with selfish agendas using religion as a cover for their selfish deeds. Useful idiots buy into the religion and help their selfish agenda along. There's nothing new under the sun.

[wizardwatson]

Naaa, it's just selfish people with selfish agendas using religion as a cover for their selfish deeds. Useful idiots buy into the religion and help their selfish agenda along. There's nothing new under the sun.

Not buying it. Too many correlations and alignments for the Harbinger correlations to be some Jewish conspiracy. It looks Jewish because it's got God's fingerprints on it.

It's weird that the first "conspiracy" I heard about 9/11 was from a friend of ours who was Muslim claiming that the Jews got out of the building. And the "evidence" was that the F9 and F11 keys made in MSWord were pictures of a plane and business buildings.

So you aren't willing to investigate the material put out about the Shemitah because you've already figured out that it's just Jews controlling the world making it look like God is judging America for some sort of power-trip that only like a handful of bible believing christians are even noticing? And that they've developed sophisticated software to engineer stock market crashes on specific holy days and they've been planning this for 3000 years?

Sounds plausible. /s

[devil21]

Not buying it. Too many correlations and alignments for the Harbinger correlations to be some Jewish conspiracy. It looks Jewish because it's got God's fingerprints on it.

It's weird that the first "conspiracy" I heard about 9/11 was from a friend of ours who was Muslim claiming that the Jews got out of the building. And the "evidence" was that the F9 and F11 keys made in MSWord were pictures of a plane and business buildings.

So you aren't willing to investigate the material put out about the Shemitah because you've already figured out that it's just Jews controlling the world making it look like God is judging America for some sort of power-trip that only like a handful of bible believing christians are even noticing? And that they've developed sophisticated software to engineer stock market crashes on specific holy days and they've been planning this for 3000 years?

Sounds plausible. /s

Don't buy it, doesn't matter to me. There's a reason I posted this thread in the econ forum, not the religious forum.

And it's not about "Jews". Orthodox Jews (real Abrahamic Jews, not fake Khazar "Jews") don't generally subscribe to Zionism.

[wizardwatson]

Don't buy it, doesn't matter to me. There's a reason I posted this thread in the econ forum, not the religious forum.

And it's not about "Jews". Orthodox Jews (real Abrahamic Jews, not fake Khazar "Jews") don't generally subscribe to Zionism.

Possible evidence of a supernatural power being responsible for 9/11 and events surrounding doesn't matter to you?

Anyway, I get it. You're not religious. You think that stuff's dumb. I'm willing to talk/discuss why you think it's dumb on an intellectual level if you're game. I think it's real. Maybe you think I'm insane or crazy, but I don't think I am. If being religious is some kind of mental disease maybe you can learn about it by discussing with someone who has a very severe manifestation of the disease.

Choice is yours. I don't know what motivates you so I'm not trying to game you.

Your signature indicates you believe in a widespread conspiracy. Really, if God exists, and I think he does, it's just a level of conspiracy you haven't considered yet. He's hiding on purpose. Until he "reveals" himself. That's what the apocalypse is all about. It comes from the Greek word "to reveal".

The shemitah is evidence of that conspiracy that he has intentionally released. Like an Osama Bin Laden tape from a cave in Afghanistan.

I mean, you started the thread. I didn't. I'm just telling you what it's really about. I can't make it about "economics only". If you hate religion and the idea of God so much that you no longer are interested in discussing the thread you started then I guess I'll leave it alone.

[devil21]

Possible evidence of a supernatural power being responsible for 9/11 and events surrounding doesn't matter to you?

God didn't fly a plane into a building. God didn't hide evidence of financial crimes in the WTC buildings and the Pentagon. God didn't write the Patriot Act. Humans did those things.

Anyway, I get it. You're not religious. You think that stuff's dumb.

No, I'm not religious. I am spiritual. Religion is what the sheep follow because they are told to. Spirituality is inside of an individual, not found in a book or a church.

I'm willing to talk/discuss why you think it's dumb on an intellectual level if you're game. I think it's real. Maybe you think I'm insane or crazy, but I don't think I am. If being religious is some kind of mental disease maybe you can learn about it by discussing with someone who has a very severe manifestation of the disease.

Feel free to PM me if you want to have that conversation. I see no need to make it a public conversation and particularly not in a thread about the economic implications of the Shemitah.

Choice is yours. I don't know what motivates you so I'm not trying to game you.

Your signature indicates you believe in a widespread conspiracy. Really, if God exists, and I think he does, it's just a level of conspiracy you haven't considered yet. He's hiding on purpose. Until he "reveals" himself. That's what the apocalypse is all about. It comes from the Greek word "to reveal".

I believe, and much research backs this up, that major religions have been hijacked in relatively recent times by people with ulterior motives, yes.

The shemitah is evidence of that conspiracy that he has intentionally released. Like an Osama Bin Laden tape from a cave in Afghanistan.

That was the CIA. Again, this is people doing these things, not God.

I mean, you started the thread. I didn't. I'm just telling you what it's really about. I can't make it about "economics only". If you hate religion and the idea of God so much that you no longer are interested in discussing the thread you started then I guess I'll leave it alone.

Feel free to PM me or perhaps I will visit the religious thread you started about it. I did not post this thread for it to become a religious discussion.

[wizardwatson]

God didn't fly a plane into a building. God didn't hide evidence of financial crimes in the WTC buildings and the Pentagon. God didn't write the Patriot Act. Humans did those things.



No, I'm not religious. I am spiritual. Religion is what the sheep follow because they are told to. Spirituality is inside of an individual, not found in a book or a church.



Feel free to PM me if you want to have that conversation. I see no need to make it a public conversation and particularly not in a thread about the economic implications of the Shemitah.



I believe, and much research backs this up, that major religions have been hijacked in relatively recent times by people with ulterior motives, yes.



That was the CIA. Again, this is people doing these things, not God.



Feel free to PM me or perhaps I will visit the religious thread you started about it. I did not post this thread for it to become a religious discussion.

Well, God orchestrates the events. Indeed people are guilty of "doing" the thing, but it is only allowed to happen because it's God's will that it happens. Anyway, hard concept to grasp the difference between everything good or evil happening being god's will. It throws people. Yes, people are morally responsible but the the event possbility matrix is all orchestrated by Him. It isn't that God "made you do" or is responsible for choice A or B, but that both A and B fulfill his will.

[VIDEODROME]

No- I haven't said the Federal Reserve keep things stable all the time. I have argued that it wasn't any better without the Fed and getting rid of them would not necessarily be an improvement. People list all the economic crisies we have had since the Fed came into being when we had them just as often before that time. Bubbles and crashes happen no matter what you use for money or what type of banking system you have.

Actually the fiscal year can vary from business to business but the Federal Government is October though September so some choose to follow that. http://wiki.fool.com/When_Is_the_Fiscal_Year%3F

My understanding is the whole reason the Fed was created was to adjust the money supply and basically manage the booms and busts as they happened. It seems like they keep doing the opposite of what their intended job was though when they print more money in a shrinking economy.

[wizardwatson]

My understanding is the whole reason the Fed was created was to adjust the money supply and basically manage the booms and busts as they happened. It seems like they keep doing the opposite of what their intended job was though when they print more money in a shrinking economy.

The fed did drop the interest rate directly on the Shemitah date of Sept. 17th 2001, which was the same day as the stock crash that happened on first day of open market after 9/11.

http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/112465.pdf

[devil21]

bump

[wizardwatson]

Another thing I noticed today. This isn't anything except another example of symettry/sychronicity.

The Jewish calendar also has leap years. It has a 13th month every few years or so. It's based on a 19 year cycle.

https://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Mathem..._19_year_cycle

The current 19 year cycle started on Oct 2, 1997 and ends on Oct 2, 2016. So not only is 5776 the Jubilee (year after 7th shemitah). But the jubilee year also happens to be the end the standard 19 year cycle, and in fact 5776 factors into 16*19*19. So it is also a 19 years squared cycle.

But simple math will show that a Jubilee year will only coincide with the end of a 19 year cycle (much less a 19 squared) every 931 years.

Anyway, doesn't "mean" anything but does show another layer of symettry.

[wizardwatson]

Paranoid much, America?

[devil21]

That's an interesting graph but it's not surprising when one considers that the market crash that's underway is not particularly 'jewish' in nature but rather originates in Rome. I've thought that any attempt to call it a 'jewish shemitah' is another example of scapegoating 'jews' in general for the actions of people that aren't actually jewish, much like WW2.

Does the same trend apply to alternate spellings like "shmita" and "schmita"? eta: Shmita has a bit more world results, schmita has no results. Go look at the trend for "Legatus", however....

[RonPaulIsGreat]

https://www.google.com/trends/explor...=Etc%2FGMT%2B5

[Zippyjuan]

Shemitah is now over.

[dannno]

Shemitah is now over.

No, the end is the beginning.. it's a count down. We got out of the market early in case the crash happened early for whatever reason. I thought that was explained before.

[Zippyjuan]

When do we hit zero? What happens then?

[dannno]

When do we hit zero? What happens then?

Dunno, guess we will see in the next few days. I would expect the market to reach new lows by the end of October, probably significantly lower, and probably quite a bit sooner.

[Zippyjuan]

I thought you knew- that "it was all explained before". Oh, well.

[devil21]

So uhhh, friday's 610pt drop was 7 years, 7 months, 7 weeks, 7 days after the 777.7 drop in 2008, according to a poster on glp.

[Son_of_Liberty90]

So uhhh, friday's 610pt drop was 7 years, 7 months, 7 weeks, 7 days after the 777.7 drop in 2008, according to a poster on glp.

And how accurate is that poster on GLP?