Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 321,000 Jobs In November, Unemployment Steady At 5.8%

[Zippyjuan]

September and October jobs figures were revised upwards as well.

Friday morning The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the strongest payroll additions in years. Employers added 321,000 jobs in November, a number far greater than the 230,000 economists were predicting. The unemployment rate, which is drawn from a different survey of households, remained steady at 5.8% the lowest level since the recession.

“If you don’t like this one nothing is going to make you happy,” declared PNC economists Stuart Hoffman. TD Ameritrade Chief Strategist JJ Kinahan said that Friday’s headline number and revisions were “outside any estimate I had seen even on the high side. Overall this is a home run in terms of jobs created.” Mark Lindbloom, portfolio manager at Western Asset Management, pointed out that this is a hard report to poke holes in, calling it a good report “across the board.”

The October payroll count, which was initially weaker than hoped, was revised higher from plus 214,000 to plus 243,000. The September number was also increased from plus 256,000 to 271,000. Total employment gains in September and October were therefore 44,000 greater than what BLS — a division of the Department of Labor — previously reported. Average monthly payroll gains for the 12 months leading up to November were 224,000. January is now the only month of 2014 with job gains below 200,000.

Average hourly earnings rose by 9 cents, or 0.4%, in November — the biggest growth since June 2013 — to $24.66, bumping the year-over-year growth rate to 2.1% from 2%. The workweek was little changed at 34.6 hours. The labor force participation rate held at 62.8%. The employment-population ratio was also unchanged at 59.2%

The sector with the most new jobs in October was professional and business services with 86,000 jobs added, much higher than the 57,000 prior 12-month average for the space. Some of that gain was in temporary help services — plus 23,000 — and accounting and bookkeeping services — plus 16,000. Unsurprisingly for the season retail trade added 50,000 jobs, more than double its 22,000 prior 12 month average. Health care added 29,000 jobs, manufacturing added 28,000 and financial activities added 20,000. All other sectors saw growth as well.

[Lucille]

Oh wait...

ANOTHER BLS BULL$#@! REPORT
http://www.theburningplatform.com/20...ll$#@!-report/

This $#@! just never grows old. The blaring headlines about amazing job growth are everywhere. Of course, the BLS issues two survey simultaneously. They interview some businesses and then they seasonally adjust the data and then add phantom jobs through their birth death excel spreadsheet “adjustment” and there you have it – 321,000 new jobs in one month. I guess that’s why so few people showed up on Black Friday to spend their new wages.

Well guess what? The unemployment rate didn’t drop. It seems their other survey paints a slightly different picture. They aren’t blaring this headline:

4,000 NEW JOBS ADDED, WHILE UNEMPLOYED SURGES BY 115,000

If you don’t believe me go to their website:

http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea03.htm

Here are the facts jack:

• The number of employed grew by 4,000, while the number of unemployed grew by 115,000.
• Another 69,000 Americans supposedly left the labor force because things are so good.
• The labor participation rate and employment to population ratio remains at 30 year lows.

• The working age population grew by 2.3 million in the last year, while 1.2 million left the labor force, resulting in a miraculous decline in the unemployment rate from 7.0% to 5.8%.
• Nothing says economic recovery like full-time jobs falling by 150,000 and part time jobs going up by 77,000

Nothing like a decline in employment of 169,000 for 16 to 24 year olds to improve the outlook of the nation.



If these government reported fantastic employment figures aren’t a lie, then why isn’t the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates. Wages supposedly surged by 0.4% in one month. That is an annualized rate of 5%. Sounds inflationary to me. I await Grandma Yellen’s announcement of an interest rate hike any moment now. Right?

Sound of crickets.

Government reported data is like the American dream. You’d have to be asleep to believe it.

Or Zippy.

[acptulsa]

Hundreds of thousands of temporary, seasonal jobs are added but the unemployment rate doesn't change by so much as a tenth of a percent?

Gee, that makes January look promising, doesn't it?

[Zippyjuan]

You are right. Nobody has been hired since 2007. It is all lies.

That Labor Force Participation Rate looks pretty dramatic, doesn't it? It looks like it almost went to zero! Until you look closer at the numbers. The bottom row in the chart isn't zero- it is cropped off. The "collapse" in figures was falling from 66% of the workforce population to 63%. A three percentage point drop. It has been staying near that 63% since February, 2013 (plus or minus half a percent). It has been stuck at 62.8% since April. http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Chart showing monthly jobs created 2001- 2012 (non-farm employment). This year will have the most since 1999.


http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2...mber-2012.aspx

All told, over the last 12 months, the U.S. economy has added over 2.73 million jobs overall and 2.66 million in the private sector. What’s more, November was the 50th consecutive month of positive job growth – the best stretch since 1939 – and the 56th consecutive month in which we’ve seen private-sector job growth – the longest on record.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-s...oars-tops-300k

Total non-farm payrolls are the highest they have ever been in history (granted populations have increased as well) to 140 million and are up by 10 million since 2010. http://ycharts.com/indicators/total_nonfarm_payrolls

[Zippyjuan]

Hundreds of thousands of temporary, seasonal jobs are added but the unemployment rate doesn't change by so much as a tenth of a percent?

Gee, that makes January look promising, doesn't it?

According to the report, "seasonal" jobs accounted for 50,000 of the 320,000 jobs or sixteen percent of them.

Unsurprisingly for the season retail trade added 50,000 jobs, more than double its 22,000 prior 12 month average.

[Zippyjuan]

Article from September: http://www.forbes.com/sites/dandiamo...-lowest-point/

A Labor Chart For Labor Day: U.S. Has Gained 9.2 Million Jobs Since Recession's Lowest Point

Labor Day was created to honor American workers, and this year — despite the Great Recession — there are more of them than ever.

Total U.S. employment topped 139 million workers as of August 1, 2014, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. (That number is expected to climb again when the Labor Department releases its new jobs report on Friday.)

The nation’s economic recovery has been slow, but the labor market has gained about 230,000 jobs per month so far this year. That compares to a monthly loss of 298,000 jobs in 2008; a monthly gain of 88,000 jobs in 2010; and a monthly gain of 174,000 jobs in 2012.

By total jobs per month, 2014 has seen the fastest rate of growth since 1998.

The strong gains so far also meant that, as of May 2014, the U.S. economy finally recovered the millions of jobs that the labor market shed between 2008 and 2010.

And the chart illustrates just how swift that decline was. For example, on Labor Day 2009, there were 6.7 million fewer jobs than on Labor Day 2008 — essentially, as if all of the workers in the entire state of Illinois had suddenly disappeared.

The chart also captures the economy’s summer slump in mid-2010, when the labor market shed about 280,000 jobs between June 2010 and September 2010. But since then, the economy has since posted 46 consecutive months of job growth.


Since hitting bottom in February 2010, the private sector has been even more robust: It’s currently experiencing 53 consecutive months of job growth. (Every month represents a new record.)

[TheCount]

September and October jobs figures were revised upwards as well.

No, you don't understand, those numbers will definitely be revised down after the election.

[Occam's Banana]

Official manual of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics:



(They should have been named the "US Bureau of Lies and Statistics" - but this would have violated guidelines set forth by the US Bureau of Redundancy Bureau ...)

[Zippyjuan]

No, you don't understand, those numbers will definitely be revised down after the election.

LOL!

[Boshembechle]

Amazing what happens when gridlock prevents DC from doing things....

[Zippyjuan]

How about another chart? Number of "discouraged workers" continues to fall. (from October):

It’s getting increasingly difficult to blame the incredibly shrinking U.S. workforce on bummed-out Americans.

The pool of discouraged workers, those who are no longer hunting for a job because they believe none is available, shrank to 698,000 in September from 775,000 the prior month, according to Labor Department figures.

That means that 45% of who were once "discouraged workers" are no longer "discouraged" (found jobs) since the peak of 1.3 million in 2010.

That probably means that what economists call structural or secular elements, including the retirement of baby boomers or people deciding to leave work to start families or go back to school, are more likely behind the continued exodus that is helping drive down unemployment. Federal Reserve policy makers have little influence over these trends since an improving economy won’t bring many of those people back.

300,000 baby boomers leave the labor market each month because they retire. This increases the number of persons not in the labor market by that amount.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-s...tirement-behi/

If there were no "discouraged workers", the Labor Force Participation Rate would look like this (red line- blue is actual):



http://www.businessinsider.com/unemp...me-back-2014-1

Note it still declines. That is boomers retiring.

[PRB]

what's interesting is that most of the new jobs are due to oil boom (fracking) and healthcare (thanks to ACA), both are short term booms, one of which liberals hate, but they'll thanks Obama anyway.

[Henry Rogue]

LOL!

Oh cool, Zippy has a minion.

[Lucille]

LOL!

Yeah, wasn't that just so hysterical.

[acptulsa]

Oh cool, Zippy has a fellow minion.

FTFY

[euphemia]

They can't be full time jobs with benefits. I know we hire about 1200 seasonal workers every year. Most are students or people with day jobs looking for a little extra over the holidays.

[juleswin]

They can't be full time jobs with benefits. I know we hire about 1200 seasonal workers every year. Most are students or people with day jobs looking for a little extra over the holidays.

So is 320k normal for Christmas time hiring?

[Zippyjuan]

They can't be full time jobs with benefits. I know we hire about 1200 seasonal workers every year. Most are students or people with day jobs looking for a little extra over the holidays.

Perhaps the government should require that companies only hire full time workers and pay they full benefits. But then companies would have to charge more for what we buy to cover it. And they would hire fewer workers. That is why some don't want any minimum wage- so companies can pay as low a wage as they can and don't have to offer benefits so we get cheap goods (and low paying jobs to buy those goods with).

No, they aren't all high paying full time jobs with benefits but more people are working than at any time in our history. More and more of those who had given up on finding a job are finally getting one. Yet some seem to think that there has been no improvements.

And actually this isn't a case where "most are students looking for a little extra pay". According to the report, yes, 50,000 were "seasonal" workers. But that means that 270,000 of the jobs weren't.

Manufacturing added about the same number of jobs as healthcare did. Most were in the "professional and business services" industry.

[Ronin Truth]

What will the revised numbers be after the 2016 election?

[TheCount]

What will the revised numbers be after the 2016 election?

They will be revised down just as much as they were revised down after the 2014 election.

[Zippyjuan]

What will the revised numbers be after the 2016 election?

Infinity and beyond.

[Lucille]

The Bureau Of Lies And Scams (Employment)
http://www.theburningplatform.com/20...ms-employment/

It looks like Karl, Zero Hedge and TBP are the only place you can go to get the truth about the BLS bull$#@!. Karl obliterates the 321,000 increase in jobs storyline. The BLS added 600,000 jobs to the true number as a “seasonal adjustment” to get to a positive 321,000 jobs versus a real 270,000 DECLINE in jobs. Nothing but lies, obfuscation, and propaganda from the government and their mouthpieces in the corporate media.

Guest Post by Karl Denninger
The Bureau Of Lies And Scams (Employment)

The gushing over the employment report was enough to make me retch, and the fact that utterly nobody called anyone on it is even worse.

The U.S. economy added 321,000 jobs in November, the strongest month of hiring since January 2012, while the unemployment rate held at 5.8%, the Labor Department said Friday. The stronger-than-expected hiring figure puts the economy on track to post the strongest year of job creation in 15 years. Economists called the report “a blockbuster” and “surprising and encouraging.” Some economists suggested the report was so strong the Federal Reserve may consider starting to raise short-term interest rates sooner than previously expected. Here are more reactions from economists.

Really?



Is the number in the second column (November) higher or lower than that in the first (October)?

Those are the actual numbers reported from the household survey.

The economy “added” 321,000 jobs in November? No, the BLS added about 600,000 jobs to the number actually reported by households!

If you’re willing to simply “report” whatever is on the headline of a data release without bothering to read the ****ing thing first you’re not a journalist, you’re a shill or worse, a paid spammer.

If you’re willing to believe this sort of **** without reading the report first then you’re a low-information voter and deserve what you get when your view of the economy and the world around you turns out to be 180 degrees from reality.
[...]
PS: I was sufficiently shocked by what I saw yesterday when this came out originally that I decided to wait until Saturday to see who picked up on it the so-called “mainstream” reporting and economic analysis fields. The answer is pretty clear from that linked WSJ blog; there is no longer a mainstream economic field that relies on numerical analysis, it is all simply a paid shilling machine for the government and whatever lie they wish to distribute on a given day.

[Zippyjuan]

The data are coming from two different sources. The one in the main topic on this thread is a survey of businesses and how many jobs they have added or lost. The data in your chart is a household survey. Those who describe themselves as working or not working. On the personal survey, if you work two jobs, you still count as one employed worker. On the jobs survey, both jobs are counted separately.

Note that according to the chart used in your link and the "not seasonally adjusted" figures, the number of people saying they are employed has increased by 2.9 million since the same month one year ago. and the number "unemployed" has fallen by 1.6 million. Does that show "no improvement"?

Link to chart: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

[loveshiscountry]

"Full-time jobs declined by 150,000, while part-time positions increased by 77,000.
Families, for instance, also were under pressure: There were 110,000 fewer married men at work, while married women saw their ranks shrink by 59,000. "

"That big headline number translated into just 4,000 more working Americans. There were, at the same time, another 115,000 on the unemployment line. That disparity can be explained through an expanding labor force, which grew 119,000"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102243878

[Zippyjuan]

"Full-time jobs declined by 150,000, while part-time positions increased by 77,000.
Families, for instance, also were under pressure: There were 110,000 fewer married men at work, while married women saw their ranks shrink by 59,000. "

"That big headline number translated into just 4,000 more working Americans. There were, at the same time, another 115,000 on the unemployment line. That disparity can be explained through an expanding labor force, which grew 119,000"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102243878

From the same link:

"Household jobs were only up 4,000, which on the surface is a disappointment. However,this follows an outsized gain of 683,000 in October and 232,000 in September, leaving the three-month moving average still up a healthy 306,000," Meyer said in a report for clients. "The monthly survey of household jobs tends to be quite noisy, suggesting caution when reacting to a given month of data."

Finally, there was a rather startling numerical coincidence: That same 321,000 figure was repeated later in the report—as the total number of bar and restaurant jobs created over the past 12 months.

Note that this figure is out of 2.9 million more working than a year ago.

There are three million more full time workers than there were one year ago too.
From the BLS chart used in Lucille's post, the number of full time workers rose from 116 million to 119 million in past year. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm

The number of part time workers rose from 27.9 million to 28.23 million (330,000 workers).


And last line of your link:

Taken in total, a peek beneath the hood of these numbers suggests a job market that still has a ways to go.

True but it has also come a very long ways.
And as posted earlier, 1.6 million fewer looking for jobs since then.

[Tod]

More jobs created; but not all jobs are equal

The economy may be creating more jobs; but not enough of the kinds of jobs that make ends meet. Here's a look at one Texas city where salaries are not keeping up.

---

WAXAHACHIE, Texas -- In Waxahachie, Texas, at her small roadside food stand, 47-year-old Kathy Jones told me she's been struggling for five years to raise herself above minimum wage.

Her high school education only got her fast food jobs. So now she works seven days a week at the food stand just to break even.
"Just doing the best I can right now to just let it stay afloat," she said. "Pretty much what I make, I put it right back out."
Restaurant owner Jonathan Evola pays his kitchen help up to $13 an hour, nearly twice the minimum wage in Texas but he can't keep pace with the cost of living, up 11 percent since 2008.
"My employees need more than what I'm even able to give them to pay their current bills," Evola said. "And I pay above average for what most of my industry people get paid."

more at link (video too)

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/if-wages...still-recover/

[acptulsa]

And as posted earlier...

...Z2.0 can neither defend his own numbers nor refute yours.

But he can keep repeating the same lies until everyone gives up on getting a meaningful response from him, then go tell his boss he got in the last word.

[Madison320]

Meanwhile, hard numbers like the total debt and trade deficit continue to be off the charts. If this is the boom I'd hate to see the bust!

[Zippyjuan]

A high trade deficit can show wealth. It may mean that you can afford to buy more items from other countries than they can afford to buy from you.

Total debt means your government spends more money than it takes in in taxes. Of course they could raise taxes to try to reduce the debt which means you have less to spend on what you want.

Neither is a good way to say if your economy is doing well or not.

[Brian4Liberty]

Lies, damned lies, statistics and statistics.gov.