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Thread: So, what are the chances of a random encounter with a cop turning bad?

  1. #1

    Exclamation So, what are the chances of a random encounter with a cop turning bad?

    Just crunching some numbers for another forum...

    So, lets look:

    Assume a baseline of 450 people per year killed by one of the 845,000 active duty cops that carry weapons as of 2010

    .05 %

    And 14748 murders in 2010 committed by members of a 330,000,000 national population in 2010.

    .004%

    That is a 12.7 times greater chance of being killed by cop than a random criminal.

    Now, granted, many of that 450 may have been legitimate "bad guys".

    But the fact is, we really don't know, cops, even though required to by federal law, ignore reporting requirements for incidents where one of us mundanes gets killed.
    Another mark of a tyrant is that he likes foreigners better than citizens, and lives with them and invites them to his table; for the one are enemies, but the Others enter into no rivalry with him. - Aristotle's Politics Book 5 Part 11



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  3. #2
    You assumed that all 300 million residents are criminals in saying

    That is a 12.7 times greater chance of being killed by cop than a random criminal.

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    You assumed that all 300 million residents are criminals in saying
    Very true, the actual chances should be much higher.
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  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by invisible View Post
    Very true, the actual chances should be much higher.

    It means the chances of being killed by a criminal rather than just a civilian are much higher which means that compared to criminals killing you the odds of a cop killing you become smaller- not larger- vs a criminal.

    We have about two million people in jails. If we figure about half of criminals are not in jail we have about three million criminals. That makes the odds of being killed by a criminal 0.4% or eight times greater than the odds of being killed by a policeman.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 11-23-2014 at 01:21 PM.

  6. #5
    Hah hah I KNEW when I saw Zip being the last one to post, he'd be picking my premise apart somehow.

    All I'm saying is "random encounter".

    You have no idea if somebody you randomly meet will kill you for some reason, even though most murders, the victim knows their killer.

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    You assumed that all 300 million residents are criminals in saying
    They could be.

    How would you know, in a "random encounter".

    Any more than you would know that a random traffic stop would lead to you being shot by a cop.

  8. #7
    Odds of being killed by either are extemely small. 2.5 million people died last year. 450 killed by cops make that probably the least likely way a person will die. Though based on threads here it might seem like the most common.

    More stats. In 2010 there were 40 million police/ civilian "contacts". http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...data/14060357/ which would make the odds of a "random encounter with a cop turning bad" meaning your death .00112 percent of such encounters.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 11-23-2014 at 03:29 PM.

  9. #8
    I'll agree heartily that the stats show there's a problem, but it also confirms what I've been saying for awhiel now that the average cop isn't really just waiting for an opportunity to kill someone. Do some? Yeah. Do most? Not really. Does that make them "good"? No, I'm not saying that. They still make their living through legalized crime. But I'm not sure how scared you have to be in the rare case where you would need one of their legitimate services. Mind you, just because they don't kill you doesn't mean they'll be of much use.
    This post represents only the opinions of Christian Liberty and not the rest of the forum. Use discretion when reading



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Odds of being killed by either are extemely small. 2.5 million people died last year. 450 killed by cops make that probably the least likely way a person will die. Though based on threads here it might seem like the most common.

    More stats. In 2010 there were 40 million police/ civilian "contacts". http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...data/14060357/ which would make the odds of a "random encounter with a cop turning bad" meaning your death .00112 percent of such encounters.
    Yes, things are relatively safe, that was the point I was making in the other thread.

    So why do we need a standing army of oppression, making 84,000 SWAT raids a year?

    Why do we need a police state so big that it is making 40,000,000 "contacts" with people every year?

    Are you going to make the case that a police/surveillance state makes us more safe?

    Because if that's the case, and that idea has taken root, then we all might as well go home and forgot about it now.

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Federalist View Post
    Yes, things are relatively safe, that was the point I was making in the other thread.

    So why do we need a standing army of oppression, making 84,000 SWAT raids a year?

    Why do we need a police state so big that it is making 40,000,000 "contacts" with people every year?

    Are you going to make the case that a police/surveillance state makes us more safe?

    Because if that's the case, and that idea has taken root, then we all might as well go home and forgot about it now.
    Even if it did, it still isn't justified.
    This post represents only the opinions of Christian Liberty and not the rest of the forum. Use discretion when reading

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Odds of being killed by either are extemely small. 2.5 million people died last year. 450 killed by cops make that probably the least likely way a person will die. Though based on threads here it might seem like the most common.

    More stats. In 2010 there were 40 million police/ civilian "contacts". http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...data/14060357/ which would make the odds of a "random encounter with a cop turning bad" meaning your death .00112 percent of such encounters.
    And how many "contacts" are made between citizens?

    Billions.

    So, while rare, you are still more likely to be killed or suffer injury at a random encounter with a cop, than with a fellow citizen.

    (Please do not call us "civilians". Everybody, including cops, are civilians. That distinction is only for active military, and preferably only on foreign soil.)
    Last edited by Anti Federalist; 11-23-2014 at 03:43 PM.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by FreedomFanatic View Post
    Even if it did, it still isn't justified.
    Safety Uber Alles comrade.

    I'd like to pin Zip down on this if I can.

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Federalist View Post
    And how many "contacts" are made between citizens?

    Billions.

    So, while rare, you are still more likely to be killed or suffer injury at a random encounter with a cop, than with a fellow citizen.

    (Please do not call us "civilians". Everybody, including cops, are civilians. That distinction is only for active military, and preferably only on foreign soil.)
    I'm not even the most anti-cop person here, but I wouldn't consider them "civilians". They are at least in some sense government combatants.
    This post represents only the opinions of Christian Liberty and not the rest of the forum. Use discretion when reading

  16. #14
    Don't allow the encounter to last long enough to find out. Ending it ASAP and alive is the priority.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by FreedomFanatic View Post
    I'm not even the most anti-cop person here, but I wouldn't consider them "civilians". They are at least in some sense government combatants.
    That they are.

    But at the end of the day, and they can give themselves all the military titles and awards and costumes they want, they are still "civilians".

  18. #16
    What's the chances of an encounter with a cop going well?



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by thoughtomator View Post
    What's the chances of an encounter with a cop going well?
    About 90% IMO. Most of them are decent people just doing their job. I figure 1 in 10 will give you a hard time.

    You improve your odds by never calling the cops.

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by 69360 View Post
    About 90% IMO. Most of them are decent people just doing their job. I figure 1 in 10 will give you a hard time.

    You improve your odds by never calling the cops.
    ''just doing their job''...haha...

    my garbage man does his job, and he doesn't have a badge, gun, and immunity from killing someone...

    do you see the difference?...

  22. #19
    If you tuck tail, cower, and say "sir" a bunch, you'll be fine.
    “One may come to the aid of another being unlawfully arrested, just as he may where one is being assaulted, molested, raped or kidnapped. Thus it is not an offense to liberate one from the unlawful custody of an officer, even though he may have submitted to such custody, without resistance.” (Adams v. State, 121 Ga. 16, 48 S.E. 910).

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Czolgosz View Post
    If you tuck tail, cower, and say "sir" a bunch, you'll be fine.
    Yes, you are correct, sir.
    No one here wanted to be the Billionaire.

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by JK/SEA View Post
    ''just doing their job''...haha...

    my garbage man does his job, and he doesn't have a badge, gun, and immunity from killing someone...

    do you see the difference?...
    No, all I see is your prejudice. If you go into an encounter with a cop thinking it will go bad, it probably will. Just like anyone else, they will pick up on your $#@!ty attitude and treat you accordingly. Granted there are bad ones that will treat you that way no matter what but most aren't.

    I've had run ins with bad ones, it happens.

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Czolgosz View Post
    If you tuck tail, cower, and say "sir" a bunch, you'll be fine.
    I hate nothing more than the reverse, the sickly sweet, phony, saccharin "sir" when being addressed by a cop.

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by 69360 View Post
    No, all I see is your prejudice. If you go into an encounter with a cop thinking it will go bad, it probably will. Just like anyone else, they will pick up on your $#@!ty attitude and treat you accordingly. Granted there are bad ones that will treat you that way no matter what but most aren't.

    I've had run ins with bad ones, it happens.
    "Anyone else" can't shoot you or kick your ass and get full legal immunity along with the assumption you won't lift a finger to defend yourself.

    My attitude when dealing with cops is cool, aloof and calm with extreme wariness.

  27. #24
    Killings By Police in Utah Outpacing Gang, Drug, Child-Abuse, and Spousal Homicides.

    http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...usal-Homicides



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Federalist View Post
    "Anyone else" can't shoot you or kick your ass and get full legal immunity along with the assumption you won't lift a finger to defend yourself.
    Even if that were true, why is that relevant? Should be even more reason to make their jobs easier, not more difficult.
    Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. -Douglas Hofstadter

    Life, Liberty, Logic

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Crashland View Post
    Even if that were true, why is that relevant? Should be even more reason to make their jobs easier, not more difficult.
    Not following you...clarify please.
    Another mark of a tyrant is that he likes foreigners better than citizens, and lives with them and invites them to his table; for the one are enemies, but the Others enter into no rivalry with him. - Aristotle's Politics Book 5 Part 11

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    It means the chances of being killed by a criminal rather than just a civilian are much higher which means that compared to criminals killing you the odds of a cop killing you become smaller- not larger- vs a criminal.

    We have about two million people in jails. If we figure about half of criminals are not in jail we have about three million criminals. That makes the odds of being killed by a criminal 0.4% or eight times greater than the odds of being killed by a policeman.
    This doesn't make any sense. Any person does have the POTENTIAL to be a criminal. So, perhaps a better wording of it would be: there is a 12.7 times greater chance of being killed by a cop than a random person. Either way, the statistic is still valid. You can't invalidate it by saying the vast majority of people are not criminals. Anybody could be a criminal. They are only NOT criminals because they haven't committed a crime YET. That's not to say we should treat it as such like the cops do, but statistically speaking, the figure is valid.
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  32. #28
    The Why.

    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Federalist View Post
    And what I have been bitching and hollering about now for YEARS...

    The Circular Force Continuum.

    <snip>

    ‘Officers may use any force available’

    The Peace Officer Standards and Training (POST) division of the Utah Department of Safety oversees, directly or indirectly, the basic training of all police recruits in Utah. At its four-month academy, cadets are introduced to the use-of-force continuum, a diagram showing officer force options — simply showing up at the scene; verbal commands, touching or holding a subject, pepper spray, police dogs, baton, Taser, or deadly force — arrayed in a circle for the officer’s selection.

    "Officers may use any force available provided they can justify the reasonableness of force used," the manual states.

    Adams maintains that officers in Utah typically use less force than may be justified.

    http://www.sltrib.com/news/1842489-1...outpacing-gang
    Just so everybody is clear on this:

    The CFC maintains that a cop can use whatever force he deems reasonable to ensure his safety, including deadly force.

    What that means in the real world is a cop can blow you away for twitching funny, making "furtive movements" or "menacing staring".

    And the "reasonableness" of his action will be determined by...fellow cops.

    Which is why, after years and hundreds of shootings in one sparsely populated state, ONLY ONE was ever determined to be "unreasonable".

    Treat every encounter with a cop as potentially life threatening one, and avoid these criminal lunatics at all costs.

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by 69360 View Post
    No, all I see is your prejudice. If you go into an encounter with a cop thinking it will go bad, it probably will. Just like anyone else, they will pick up on your $#@!ty attitude and treat you accordingly. Granted there are bad ones that will treat you that way no matter what but most aren't.

    I've had run ins with bad ones, it happens.
    Your attitude is the problem here.

    Cops are not supposed to "treat you accordingly" in accordance with any real, perceived or manufactured attitude problem.

    You summed it all up in that one little sentence, and 97% of America agrees with you - and this is why we are where we are today with this...
    EX-USCG


    What is the difference between a hero and a cop? A hero will not hesitate to risk his life to protect your safety, a cop will not hesitate to risk your life to protect his safety.
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    Authoritarian leftists. Political prisoners. Gulags. Where are we again?

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Czolgosz View Post
    If you tuck tail, cower, and say "sir" a bunch, you'll be fine.


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