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Thread: Zippyjuan was WRONG!

  1. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by LibForestPaul View Post
    You keep thinking the future is unpredictable. Those with the power know they create the future.
    Except for climate change, we know nobody can predict climate and anybody who says he can is a commie who wants to tax us for breathing.



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  3. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by PaulConventionWV View Post
    That's the thing: the longer you hold bonds, the worse they do against inflation.
    I realize that this seems to match with your experience of disappointment, but there really is a lot to bonds, a lot one could learn. How bonds do will depend on many things, like:

    1. their duration
    2. their credit risk
    3. whether the issuer defaults
    4. the rate of interest the bond is paying
    5. whether the bond is callable
    6. capital appreciation/depreciation based on whether interest rates move up or down

    Lately, bonds have actually been giving a very, very good return. Will that continue? Not necessarily. Certainly not forever. Eventually there will be a time when bonds will do badly. But for now, this is their day in the sun. Each of the four Permanent Portfolio assets gets its day in the sun. That's why to own all four.



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  5. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by PaulConventionWV View Post
    Under a certain set of conditions which we can reasonably expect won't change within a certain period of time, however, the markets can be predicted with some accuracy.
    Do you have any evidence for this statement?

  6. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    And the future risk of inflation is off the charts.
    DFF, former fellow-traveler in 1000% agreement with you, has now decided that deflation is inevitable:

    Quote Originally Posted by DFF View Post
    I used to think hyperinflation was inevitable, but now I realize that deflation is the more likely outcome.

    The only reason we even have any inflation whatsoever is because of the Fed's QE programs.
    Can't depend on anything nowadays. Sure-thing prognostications suddenly reversed. What will the crystal ball tell us tomorrow? You'll have to ask someone else -- I smashed all of mine.

  7. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    I never made a prediction but I did say that the most LIKELY direction for interest rates was higher in the longer term
    Umm, saying something like that is what we on Planet Earth call a Prediction.

    How could you have possibly made your position more clear? It was crystal clear to me, and to anyone else reading. "Don't buy long-term bonds. Interest rates are virtually zero, they have nowhere to go but up, and thus bonds have nowhere to go but down." The prediction is simple and clear. The advice is simple and clear. It just happens to have been wrong.

    Now you can say "no, no, no, that's just in the short term. In the long term I'll be proven right. You'll see." You can say that. And you do say that. And when you do, you start to sound an awful lot like Peter Schiff. You've been saying this about bonds at least a couple years, eh? Two years is a pretty long time, Zippy, eh? When will your "long term" finally arrive? How long do I have to wait? Ten years? Fifty?
    Last edited by helmuth_hubener; 10-17-2014 at 11:14 AM.

  8. #36
    A prediction says something will definately happen. Saying something is possible or even likely is not a prediction in my book. If I said "gold is going to $1000", that is a prediction. "It could rain tomorrow" means it could also not rain. "It will rain tomorrow" is a prediction. A prediction can also include a date. "Interest rates will rise before October 15th". I did not say interest rates would rise in the next month or any particular time. I am concerned with long term. But if you want to declare victory for a short term gain, congratulations. I was wrong. You win.

  9. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    A prediction says something will definately happen. Saying something is possible or even likely is not a prediction in my book. If I said "gold is going to $1000", that is a prediction. "It could rain tomorrow" means it could also not rain. "It will rain tomorrow" is a prediction. A prediction can also include a date. "Interest rates will rise before October 15th". I did not say interest rates would rise in the next month or any particular time. I am concerned with long term. But if you want to declare victory for a short term gain, congratulations. I was wrong. You win.
    By your ridiculous redefinition of prediction, Peter Schiff has never made a prediction in his life.

    But... guess what? Actually, he has.

    A real man would simply own up, matter-of-factly, and admit: "Yes, my advice doesn't seem too good based on the last couple years of performance. You would have been better buying the bonds after all. My expectations have not yet come true -- that is, I was wrong."

    You apparently can't do that. And you have retreated into the "but, but, but: long term" rear-guard action, just like Peter Schiff and his defenders. So, I am going to start calling you Peter Schiff. I think it fits you better.

    So, Peter Schiff, how long is your "long-term"? How many years does your advice have to fail and lose money before I can finally declare you to be wrong? Twenty? Seventy? A thousand?

  10. #38
    Chester Copperpot
    Member

    Quote Originally Posted by Spikender View Post
    I have been here for three years and I still don't understand Zippo's purpose of being on this site.

    That's all I wanted to say.
    hes prob a paid blogger to spout pro-govt stuff... that being said im not sure i agree with the OP... how do we know where he bought or what rate of return he locked in? A chart trending up doesnt tell me too much specifically

  11. #39
    Plus, ZippyJuan was wrong regarding higher rates results in lower bond prices. It's the other way around. Bond prices drop, which raises the interest rate to bring the bond to par value. It's the price of the bond that affects interest rates--not the interest rate that affects the bond price.

  12. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by Gaddafi Duck View Post
    Plus, ZippyJuan was wrong regarding higher rates results in lower bond prices. It's the other way around. Bond prices drop, which raises the interest rate to bring the bond to par value. It's the price of the bond that affects interest rates--not the interest rate that affects the bond price.
    supply vs demand only works one way?



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  14. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by Gaddafi Duck View Post
    Plus, ZippyJuan was wrong regarding higher rates results in lower bond prices. It's the other way around. Bond prices drop, which raises the interest rate to bring the bond to par value. It's the price of the bond that affects interest rates--not the interest rate that affects the bond price.
    Lo and behold! While Zippyjuan/Peter Schiff is wrong, along comes someone who is even more wrong!

  15. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by Gaddafi Duck View Post
    Plus, ZippyJuan was wrong regarding higher rates results in lower bond prices. It's the other way around. Bond prices drop, which raises the interest rate to bring the bond to par value. It's the price of the bond that affects interest rates--not the interest rate that affects the bond price.
    Bond interest rates move inversely to their price. A bond has a face value- what it is worth at maturity. If a bond has a face value of $10,000 and is sold for $9,000 the yield will be ten percent. If you hold that bond until it matures, you get that for you return. If you decide to sell your bond before it matures, how much you can get depends on what new bonds are going for. If bonds are now yielding 20% (meaning interest rates are higher), a person can buy a new bond for $8,000. They aren't going to offer you $9,000 for yours (ignoring anything like coupons which have been paid on your bond already) so if you want to sell yours, you are going to have to ask $8,000 (or less). That means that if you do sell your bond, you would lose $1,000 of what you paid. The rise in interest rates means the bond you hold is worth less. It wasn't the change in the value of your bond which caused interest rates to change but the change in interest rates which changed the value of your bond.

    You are right that on newly issued bonds the price determines the interest rate but on bonds people already have it is the prevailing interest rate which changes their value. If you sell your bond. If you keep the bond until it matures, its value is the face value and that does not change.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 10-17-2014 at 08:28 PM.

  16. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by Spikender View Post
    I have been here for three years and I still don't understand Zippo's purpose of being on this site.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Mitrosky View Post
    hes prob a paid blogger to spout pro-govt stuff...

    I don't think he's government. If I had to bet, I'd say he has a relationship with the Anti Defamation League or similar organization. Could be formal or informal. He might get paid, or maybe he just donates his time. Among other things, I have seen a Wikipedia editor by the name of Zippy who writes articles on Jewish figures and subjects.

    The ADL is a savvy group that strongly recognizes the intersection between language, discourse, and the internet. Nothing unique about that. A wide variety of groups vie for opinion and attempt to shape public perceptions, but it seems some are more assertive than others. A lot of mainstream medical professionals, for example, edit Wikipedia articles and they closely guard their edits (e.g., vaccine articles). They are however, up front about their identities. The really dumb thing about Zip is that he tries to hide it. I asked him his purpose for being here and he declined to answer. He declined to answer who he voted for on a political forum. I even proposed a bet with him where the loser would leave the forum forever. He declined.

    Seems to me he has something to lose if he left this board. I've never seen him post anything pro-liberty. Most of his posts are purposely contrary. I really don't even think it's a big deal if someone says they're from some organization that might be at odds with liberty or people here. Geez, at least be a man about it instead of cowardly skulking around here like a cockroach.
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

  17. #44
    Interesting theory. How many of my posts have been about Israel or Jews? Either pro or anti?
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 10-17-2014 at 05:32 PM.

  18. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Interesting theory.

    How so?
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

  19. #46
    I'm just curious to know what Zippyjuan thinks of Monsters University.
    Quote Originally Posted by Sister Miriam Godwinson View Post
    We Must Dissent.

  20. #47
    Thinking about enrolling?

  21. #48
    I was until I found out the University was pushing that Statist propaganda about screams being the only power source.

    The truth will come out... one day.
    Quote Originally Posted by Sister Miriam Godwinson View Post
    We Must Dissent.



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  23. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by brandon View Post
    What is that even a graph of?
    that's not important, what's important is ZIPPY WAS WRONG.

  24. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCarolinaLiberty View Post
    How so?
    because you have no proof, that's why.

  25. #51
    By the way, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...n-lingers.html

    Treasuries fell for a second day, pushing 10-year yields up the most in one month, as a report showed housing starts rose more than forecast last month, damping concern the economy may need further stimulus.

    The benchmark 10-year securities extended losses as consumer confidence in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in October to the highest level in seven years. U.S. government securities are headed for a weekly gain as concern global growth is losing momentum stoked bets the Federal Reserve will delay an interest-rate increase. Today’s rise in yields pared a move this week that sent 10-year yields to the lowest level since May 2013.

    “As domestic numbers get better, it makes people feel better,” said Kevin Giddis, the Memphis, Tennessee-based executive vice president and head of fixed-income capital markets at Raymond James & Associates Inc. “We went through that period of time where it was a great scare in the market.”
    Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased bearish bets on 10-year note futures to the most since May, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. The number of net-short positions reached 123,168 contracts as of Oct. 14, an increase of 30,383 from the week before.
    No, I am not claiming that my "prediction" was right since I did not actually make a prediction and it is short term. Long term is what matters.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 10-17-2014 at 07:56 PM.

  26. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by PRB View Post
    because you have no proof, that's why.


    It ain't that hard to figure out when you clowns are posting most of your own evidence.
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

  27. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    How many of my posts have been about Israel or Jews? Either pro or anti?




    The ADL addresses multiple issues.
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

  28. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCarolinaLiberty View Post



    The ADL addresses multiple issues.
    what? other than racism and Israel? Inflation? Taxes? Bitcoin? 9/11? Chemtails?

  29. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by PRB View Post
    what? other than racism and Israel?
    Hey buddy, there's a new invention out now. It's called a website. Most organizations have one.
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

  30. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCarolinaLiberty View Post
    Hey buddy, there's a new invention out now. It's called a website. Most organizations have one.
    Surely if I worked for them I'd know, right?

    So, just looked on ADL website, these are the categories of major issues they claim to focus on



    Anti-Semitism
    Combating Hate
    Israel & International
    Civil Rights
    Education & Outreach


    Which of these did either myself or Zippy ever post about?
    Last edited by PRB; 10-19-2014 at 01:18 PM.



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  32. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by PRB View Post
    Surely if I worked for them I'd know, right?

    Right, because you would never fib on this forum.
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

  33. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by PRB View Post
    Which of these did either myself or Zippy ever post about?

    Neg rep.

    Reason: repeated disingenuousness.
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

  34. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Interesting theory. How many of my posts have been about Israel or Jews? Either pro or anti?
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Pinochet is the model
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Liberty preserving authoritarianism.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Enforced internal open borders was one of the worst elements of the Constitution.

  35. #60
    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^


    That's actually pretty funny. "TheCount" is the funny one in the trolling quartet of Zip, PRB, MaybeMaybeNot, and TheCount.
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

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