Results 1 to 15 of 15

Thread: Bitcoin Bulls Return in Wake of BearWhale Slaying

  1. #1

    Bitcoin Bulls Return in Wake of BearWhale Slaying

    http://www.coindesk.com/market-weekl...whale-slaying/

    Market Weekly: Bitcoin Bulls Return in Wake of BearWhale Slaying

    Joon Ian Wong (@joonian) | Published on October 13, 2014 at 13:05 BST


    Traders appear to have been reinvigorated by blood in the water this week in the aftermath of the slaying of the ‘BearWhale’ last Monday.
    The bitcoin price was $327 at the start of last week and it was trading for $370 at the week’s end, according to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index.
    After weeks of tepid trading volumes, bitcoin exchanges showed a surge in orders, hitting 642,000 BTC on 9th October. This almost topped the 657,000 BTC in total trading volume at the height of the buying activity as the massive sell order of 26,000 coins was unloaded by the so-called BearWhale on the market on Sunday.

    This makes the week one of the most active trading weeks in months. The last time this much trading activity was recorded on the exchanges was eight months ago, where peak trading volume was 711,000 BTC on 25th February.
    The price then was $534, according to the CoinDesk BPI. It was on its way down from the heights of January, plunging from $850 at the start of the month to $563 by the time March rolled around. That was the start of relatively range-bound trading until another sharp drop at the end of March.
    The rise of Bitfinex

    It’s no surprise that trading volumes have tapered sharply after Thursday’s peak. Volumes dropped by 30% the day after this peak and have continued to decline over the week. Exchanges recorded only 147,000 BTC in trades yesterday, or about a third of where volume stood at the start of the week.
    While the ‘big three’ Chinese exchanges continue to dominate the amount of trade in the BTC markets, with OKCoin leading the way and BTC China bringing up the rear, exchanges with less volume are still competing for commission fees.
    One such rivalry – in trading volume terms, at least – is unfolding between Bitfinex and Bitstamp. The former is the Hong Kong-based exchange that provides a suite of tools for the sophisticated trader, including trading on margin. It has emerged as a strong contender with consistently healthy trading volumes.
    While Bitstamp is often viewed as a benchmark exchange, trading volumes there have diminished over the months. Bitfinex, meanwhile, appears to be taking up the slack, as it continues to roll out new tools and products for active investors.
    The gap in volume between Bitfinex and Bitstamp has widened this week. On 6th October, Bitstamp traded 69,542 coins on its platform while Bitfinex saw 55,925 coins traded. Yesterday, however, Bitfinex recorded 20,819 BTC worth of trades for the day to Bitstamp’s 14,905 BTC.
    Movement in the price of bitcoin from 6th October to 13th OctoberThe bulls are back

    Market watchers continue to be bullish on the bitcoin price. The trading newsletter from BitMEX, a derivatives exchange in Hong Kong run by former Citi prop trader Arthur Hayes, recommends building a position around the $330-$350 price target in the near-term. As the price plummeted at the start of the week, Hayes urged newsletter subscribers:
    “Now is the time to take two hands and buy buy buy. I expect a sharp rally to $330-$350. The price will consolidate around those levels and build a base for a move higher into the year end.”
    Long-only fund Pantera Capital, meanwhile, applies some cyclical analysis to the bitcoin price in its latest monthly newsletter (PDF). It finds that September 2014 marked the end of bitcoin’s longest bear cycle, with the price declining 64% over a nine-month period.
    More cheerily, Pantera observes that bitcoin bull cycles have historically returned a whopping minimum of 3.3 times the capital invested.
    Martin Tillier, the NASDAQ’s resident markets watcher who has taken a shine to bitcoin, puts the recent bitcoin price decline down to US dollar strength. Tillier maintains that bitcoin naysayers have it wrong, although he concedes bitcoin may well have been over-valued:
    “The point is that something losing value in terms of the US dollar over the last few months is, at least in part, due to general dollar strength.”
    News and fundamentals

    The last week has also seen some positive signs for wider bitcoin adoption. The US futures regulator was heard making the right noises about bitcoin regulation on Friday’s panel discussion on cryptocurrencies in Washington, DC.
    A Philippines congresswoman has introduced a bill for an ‘e-peso’ that could pave the way for greater digital currency adoption in that remittance-heavy country. The bill calls for e-peso to be made available at all domestic bank branches.
    Bull image via Marcio Jose Bastos Silva / Shutterstock.com



  2. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  3. #2
    A bit premature to say the bulls are back IMO. Yes, definitely a bounce off a low, but not even a counter trend rally as price peaks still comfortably below the the top side of the down trend.

    The story, as it has always been outside of the parabolic moves, is can the buyers sustain momentum. In other words, will the volume trend follow the price trend?

    Nothing new in this bounce so far, but I do concede the total volume must be encouraging for traders if not the buy and hold crowd as well.

    Let's get past $400 first then talk about perhaps a counter trend rally. Then lets get up thru the 450 major resist range with volume support to start talking about maybe a bulls eyes turning red. And then lets crack 550 with volume support to start talking about maybe the bull snorting and huffing.

    Then maybe if we can break 650 we could seriously consider a return of the bull and maybe a new trend setting in.

    I happen to believe 380 is the upper bounds of trading in a new paradigm of price stability. I still think the thing is over valued. The market told us something really important with the 26,000 dump.

    People with deep pockets (in terms of BTC) don't think their holdings are worth more than $300ish a piece. that 26k represented

    26,000/11,000,000 april 2013 price peak of 260. That is a scant 0.2% or .002 of ALL bitcoins that were available and obtained at prices well below $300.

    Another way to look at that is that kind of dump can happen 499 more times at the same price level and make a boat load of money. Of course the caveat would be, will the buyers show up for that party?
    Last edited by newbitech; 10-13-2014 at 12:18 PM.

  4. #3
    Minus the personal opinions at the bottom of your post, your estimate is on par with someone else I know. Elliot wave charters believe if it can break into 390, it could make a run to mid 430's. The previous leg down was a giant "wave 3". If it were to continue past 430, the next level of resistance is 520's. If that threshold can be broken, it could run between 650-700 before reversal.

    tl;dr
    short-term bullish scenario
    End of October = 400's-500's
    Nov-Dec = 600-700's.
    Reverse before the end of the year.

    News can change their geometric predictive analysis models pretty quickly though. But for now, sentiment seems positive again. Ignore the trollbox's tho...
    Last edited by muh_roads; 10-13-2014 at 01:08 PM.

  5. #4
    Personal opinions at the bottom of the post?

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by newbitech View Post
    A bit premature to say the bulls are back IMO. Yes, definitely a bounce off a low, but not even a counter trend rally as price peaks still comfortably below the the top side of the down trend.

    The story, as it has always been outside of the parabolic moves, is can the buyers sustain momentum. In other words, will the volume trend follow the price trend?

    Nothing new in this bounce so far, but I do concede the total volume must be encouraging for traders if not the buy and hold crowd as well.

    Let's get past $400 first then talk about perhaps a counter trend rally. Then lets get up thru the 450 major resist range with volume support to start talking about maybe a bulls eyes turning red. And then lets crack 550 with volume support to start talking about maybe the bull snorting and huffing.

    Then maybe if we can break 650 we could seriously consider a return of the bull and maybe a new trend setting in.

    I happen to believe 380 is the upper bounds of trading in a new paradigm of price stability. I still think the thing is over valued. The market told us something really important with the 26,000 dump.

    People with deep pockets (in terms of BTC) don't think their holdings are worth more than $300ish a piece. that 26k represented

    26,000/11,000,000 april 2013 price peak of 260. That is a scant 0.2% or .002 of ALL bitcoins that were available and obtained at prices well below $300.

    Another way to look at that is that kind of dump can happen 499 more times at the same price level and make a boat load of money. Of course the caveat would be, will the buyers show up for that party?
    I agree with this sentiment. BTC seems to be trading in a descending wedge formation since the last peak. I think the top of this bull run may be about $500 before another dip under $300. I do have my doubts about your $100s call, though. The long-term up trend is around $220 right now, and if we break below that, it may be very hard for the market to recover, considering that that's the last meaningful trend line left before sub-$100 prices. It seems like another peak would be out of the question after it broke that.
    I'm an adventurer, writer and bitcoin market analyst.

    Buy my book for $11.49 (reduced):

    Website: http://www.grandtstories.com/

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeviGrandt

    Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/grandtstori...homepage_panel

    BTC: 1NiSc21Yrv6CRANhg1DTb1EUBVax1ZtqvG

  7. #6
    Are we speculating?
    "When a portion of wealth is transferred from the person who owns it—without his consent and without compensation, and whether by force or by fraud—to anyone who does not own it, then I say that property is violated; that an act of plunder is committed." - Bastiat : The Law

    "nothing evil grows in alcohol" ~ @presence

    "I mean can you imagine what it would be like if firemen acted like police officers? They would only go into a burning house only if there's a 100% chance they won't get any burns. I mean, you've got to fully protect thy self first." ~ juleswin

  8. #7
    Chester Copperpot
    Member

    technical analysis is horse$#@!

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Mitrosky View Post
    technical analysis is horse$#@!
    Nah, it's not. I use it, but in a pretty basic way. Trend following, Dow theory, reversal patterns. TA is all psychology so you must understand the market you're trading in and how individuals act and react within it.

    I think the volume says it all. Buyers flocked in at 300. Hell, I bought 8 at that price. I do agree with newbitech that I'm not going to get too excited until $800 or so.



  10. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by newbitech View Post
    Personal opinions at the bottom of the post?
    nvm. u edited something or I read it too quickly before heading out the door. Probably was the latter.

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by PaulConventionWV View Post
    I agree with this sentiment. BTC seems to be trading in a descending wedge formation since the last peak. I think the top of this bull run may be about $500 before another dip under $300. I do have my doubts about your $100s call, though. The long-term up trend is around $220 right now, and if we break below that, it may be very hard for the market to recover, considering that that's the last meaningful trend line left before sub-$100 prices. It seems like another peak would be out of the question after it broke that.
    I think we will head back below $300 as well but not yet. The inverted beginnings of the first shoulder on a new H&S if one forms is $522.

    We won't go below $100 unless someone does a noob panic flash dump which recovers within the minute. It is always good to set a really low spread buy in case that happens. The wider the spread, the greater success you will have in catching one of those.

    But staying below $100 for a long period of time sounds really silly from my perspective since I remember what that was like. RPF is a bit of a vacuum void that doesn't offer much perspective because it is always dead here. In the twittersphere of news and $#@!coins tho there is so much more buzz about BTC than there was back then in summer 2013. It's like night and day. And that doesn't take into account the new VC guys that came along. If they are investing in BTC companies u know damn well they are scooping also.
    Last edited by muh_roads; 10-14-2014 at 09:44 AM.

  13. #11
    Looks like it double-topped at 414 and double-bottomed at 395.

    Flip a coin.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by muh_roads View Post
    Looks like it double-topped at 414 and double-bottomed at 395.

    Flip a coin.
    Double top, yes. Double bottom, no. We're in a short-term shallow corrective wave before executing the $520 pump.
    I'm an adventurer, writer and bitcoin market analyst.

    Buy my book for $11.49 (reduced):

    Website: http://www.grandtstories.com/

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeviGrandt

    Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/grandtstori...homepage_panel

    BTC: 1NiSc21Yrv6CRANhg1DTb1EUBVax1ZtqvG

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by PaulConventionWV View Post
    Double top, yes. Double bottom, no. We're in a short-term shallow corrective wave before executing the $520 pump.
    Yeah it looks like upper 360's was our floor this morning. Sold some 390 and rescooped 370.

    Still seems bullish.

  16. #14
    Good call. It may not be over, though. I've been trading this pretty successfully so far and this volume just doesn't look good. It may do one more drop to support at $330 before another rise, kind of like it did when it reached $339 in April (I think it was April).
    I'm an adventurer, writer and bitcoin market analyst.

    Buy my book for $11.49 (reduced):

    Website: http://www.grandtstories.com/

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeviGrandt

    Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/grandtstori...homepage_panel

    BTC: 1NiSc21Yrv6CRANhg1DTb1EUBVax1ZtqvG

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by PaulConventionWV View Post
    Good call. It may not be over, though. I've been trading this pretty successfully so far and this volume just doesn't look good. It may do one more drop to support at $330 before another rise, kind of like it did when it reached $339 in April (I think it was April).
    Yeah I think you might be right. Resistance @ 390's again. 340's could be a new temp floor before bounce. There seems to be a wedge narrowing down to the 380's before it does something like run to 500+...and then dip below 300 again. When it does this a second time I think it will be the last chance of getting BTC in the upper $200's.

    Lets see how this plays out but I think you are seeing the same pattern I am seeing repeated over and over again. Seems to become a self-fulfilling prophecy I guess as more people learn how to trade better and do what the TA experts say to do.
    Last edited by muh_roads; 10-19-2014 at 12:31 AM.



Similar Threads

  1. AP source: Fed's gun used in San Francisco pier slaying
    By juleswin in forum U.S. Political News
    Replies: 11
    Last Post: 07-11-2015, 07:44 AM
  2. The slaying of sandy hook game.
    By BW2112 in forum Open Discussion
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 12-05-2013, 09:02 PM
  3. Slaying Dragons for Ron Paul - $17,500 raised so far
    By Rowdius in forum Ron Paul Forum
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 03-21-2012, 02:11 PM
  4. Slaying the New York State Pork Dragon
    By SARTRE in forum U.S. Constitution
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 10-17-2011, 05:13 AM
  5. A return to serious advertisement would be a return to quality in substance
    By Uncle Emanuel Watkins in forum U.S. Political News
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 10-02-2008, 12:47 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •