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Thread: WILD Swings in the DOW (-300) ... concerned?

  1. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Gonna be waiting a while.
    Maybe , I would hope so , but who knows ?



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  3. #32
    Where are we at ? Down 435 from New Yrs ?



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  5. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by HOLLYWOOD View Post
    ...ya, but the Fed's got a printing press, and we can keep borrowing money from China forever. [/sarcasm]

  6. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    Maybe , I would hope so , but who knows ?
    What did Zimbabwe's stock market do when hyperinflation hit? It went skyhigh but the Zim dollar was worthless. Their stock market reset and currency reset didn't it? Did it reset to 3000 after their currency was worthless?

    @Zippyjuan, I request a fancy chart of the Zim dollar vs the Zim stock exchange before AND after the Zim dollar died and the USD was introduced there.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  7. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    Where are we at ? Down 435 from New Yrs ?
    January 2, 2014 close was 16,441.07 http://daytradingstockblog.blogspot....ck-market.html

    As of this moment it is 16,117.24

  8. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    What did Zimbabwe's stock market do when hyperinflation hit? It went skyhigh but the Zim dollar was worthless. Their stock market reset and currency reset didn't it? Did it reset to 3000 after their currency was worthless?

    @Zippyjuan, I request a fancy chart of the Zim dollar vs the Zim stock exchange before AND after the Zim dollar died and the USD was introduced there.
    We aren't like Zimbabwe so a comparison is not relevant but you can probably google one if interested.

  9. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    We aren't like Zimbabwe so a comparison is not relevant but you can probably google one if interested.
    That's right. The law of supply and demand is only valid in Zimbabwe. We've suspended that law here and can print as much currency as we want with no fear of inflation.

  10. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    We aren't like Zimbabwe so a comparison is not relevant but you can probably google one if interested.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  11. #39
    We aren't anywhere near any hyperinflation.

  12. #40
    I used to think hyperinflation was inevitable, but now I realize that deflation is the more likely outcome.

    The only reason we even have any inflation whatsoever is because of the Fed's QE programs.



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  14. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by DFF View Post
    I used to think hyperinflation was inevitable, but now I realize that deflation is the more likely outcome.

    The only reason we even have any inflation whatsoever is because of the Fed's QE programs.
    Yeah , the major inflation I see is just in food .Only problem is , wages are flat. Flip a coin .

  15. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by DFF View Post
    Huebner, that's one of the most boring, vanilla portfolios I've ever seen.
    Exactly! Isn't it wonderful! Bring on the boring! It was designed to be the most uber-uber-conservative portfolio available. Mission: avoid losing the money that's precious to you, no matter what. Thus far: mission accomplished.

    But you know what's funny? It actually does fantastic on giving returns, too, despite it's extreme conservatism. Delivering about 9% annually for the last 44 years, or about 4-5% real. I hereby challenge you to a competition! Post your portfolio (you already posted all the components, I presume that's what you mean by "Here's how you do it, behold:", so now you need only post the percentages and re-balancing rules if any) and I'll post mine, and we can track them for the next five years and see whose portfolio wins. Deal?

  16. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    We aren't anywhere near any hyperinflation.
    Nobody is - until they are. And no fiat currency is immune. Inflation at any level is very much NOT in my personal interest. But only a fool thinks it isn't a possibility.
    The proper concern of society is the preservation of individual freedom; the proper concern of the individual is the harmony of society.

    "Who would be free, themselves must strike the blow." - Byron

    "Who overcomes by force, hath overcome but half his foe." - Milton

  17. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by Acala View Post
    Nobody is - until they are. And no fiat currency is immune. Inflation at any level is very much NOT in my personal interest. But only a fool thinks it isn't a possibility.
    Exactly. Currency crises tend to happen very fast. Things move quick. Especially in the modern world -- you can look at any number of examples in the last couple decades. Once you know it's happening, it's too late.

  18. #45
    Looks like things may be rebounding already. As of right now, DOW is up over 200 points today. You can put away your crash helmets for another day.

  19. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Looks like things may be rebounding already. As of right now, DOW is up over 200 points today. You can put away your crash helmets for another day.
    Phew! Thank you, Peter Schiff. We are all always glad to receive the divine illumination that pours forth from your heavenly visions. Crash helmet stowed. The stock market will be fine. The great Peter Schiff has spoken.

  20. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Looks like things may be rebounding already. As of right now, DOW is up over 200 points today. You can put away your crash helmets for another day.
    Uh huh. But volatility remains, historically, a bad sign.

    And this October has a couple more Fridays to go before it's over.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    We believe our lying eyes...

  21. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by acptulsa View Post
    Uh huh. But volatility remains, historically, a bad sign.

    And this October has a couple more Fridays to go before it's over.
    Silence! There will be no crash! The great Peter Schiff has spoken. Calm down, citizens. Everything is under control.



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  23. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by acptulsa View Post
    Uh huh. But volatility remains, historically, a bad sign.

    And this October has a couple more Fridays to go before it's over.
    In terms of percent changes, the recent drop is not really that big. At current levels, 500 point is only about a three percent move. Especially considering how long stocks have been moving upwards. There hasn't been a correction (considered a change of ten percent or more) in over three years which is a long time for stocks. Ten percent would be over 1,600 points on the DOW. It is normal for them to move up for a while, retreat, and then move ahead again.
    October being a bad month for stock is a myth. There were two times there was a large drop in October so that sticks in people's minds. Stocks actually historically do worse in August. http://247wallst.com/investing/2014/...cks-in-august/

    Looking at the S&P 500 over the last 40 years, September is the worst month (end of fiscal year- maybe people taking profits or locking in losses to offset gains for the year).

    http://squirrelers.com/2011/01/31/2126/
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 10-17-2014 at 05:23 PM.

  24. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    October being a bad month for stock is a myth. There were two times there was a large drop in October so that sticks in people's minds.
    Z2.0, I may be a relative ignoramus in this stuff by the standards of this board, but even I know that 1929 + 1987 + 2008 = at least three.

    Since when does Wall St. not live and die by its own traditions and superstitions?
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    We believe our lying eyes...

  25. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Looks like things may be rebounding already. As of right now, DOW is up over 200 points today. You can put away your crash helmets for another day.
    Well , I could feel a little better about it if it was up since New Years .

  26. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Looks like things may be rebounding already. As of right now, DOW is up over 200 points today. You can put away your crash helmets for another day.
    Just like 2008 when the market was swinging 200-300+ points per day until the big -777 day and Lehman and Bear announcements.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  27. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    Well , I could feel a little better about it if it was up since New Years .
    It is within 60 points as of Friday's close. Could move above the January number on Monday.

  28. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by acptulsa View Post
    Z2.0, I may be a relative ignoramus in this stuff by the standards of this board, but even I know that 1929 + 1987 + 2008 = at least three.

    Since when does Wall St. not live and die by its own traditions and superstitions?
    Note too that of the 20 largest percent single day gains in stocks, six were also in Octobers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...strial_Average

    (the 778 point drop in 2008 was actually in September though true that is nearly October)
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 10-18-2014 at 03:59 PM.

  29. #55
    Back up the truck!!!!

    BTFD!!!!



    Right?
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Pinochet is the model
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Liberty preserving authoritarianism.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Enforced internal open borders was one of the worst elements of the Constitution.

  30. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    Back up the truck!!!!

    BTFD!!!!



    Right?
    Ha! TheCount, I had to laugh out loud at this. What a great connection you made.

    It's absolutely apt, though. Buy low is a sound principle. It applies to stock indexes as well as precious metals as well as car insurance. Of course, just because it's low doesn't mean it won't go lower! But in retrospect, late 2008 (for example) was an excellent time to be rebalancing into the stock market (that is, buying more of it because it had gone down, to bring it back up to the previous percentage in your portfolio). Rules-based fixed-percentage portfolio management makes it automatic that you will do smart things like this that otherwise would be almost unthinkable -- no normal person thinks about buying stocks in a horrible stock crisis!



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  32. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Note too that of the 20 largest percent single day gains in stocks, six were also in Octobers.
    Um, since when does 'volatility' (which is what I was talking about) only go one direction...?

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    (the 778 point drop in 2008 was actually in September though true that is nearly October)
    The question neither you nor I can answer yet is, is this a good fall for a fall?
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    We believe our lying eyes...

  33. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by acptulsa View Post
    Um, since when does 'volatility' (which is what I was talking about) only go one direction...?
    You are right- it does go in both directions. Didn't say it doesn't. I was trying to show two things.

    1) Share price volatility is not that high right now as a percent of market values- 200 points when the DOW is about 16,000 is only 1.25%. It sounds like a lot- but isn't.

    2) While there have been large losses a couple times in the last 50 years in October there have also been large gains in the month of October. Being October means nothing in trying to predict what may happen.

  34. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Being October means nothing in trying to predict what may happen.
    Means something to me. Means not to listen to people who tell me not to expect the unexpected.

    You know. People like you.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    We believe our lying eyes...

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