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Where are we at ? Down 435 from New Yrs ?
What did Zimbabwe's stock market do when hyperinflation hit? It went skyhigh but the Zim dollar was worthless. Their stock market reset and currency reset didn't it? Did it reset to 3000 after their currency was worthless?
@Zippyjuan, I request a fancy chart of the Zim dollar vs the Zim stock exchange before AND after the Zim dollar died and the USD was introduced there.
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
January 2, 2014 close was 16,441.07 http://daytradingstockblog.blogspot....ck-market.html
As of this moment it is 16,117.24
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
We aren't anywhere near any hyperinflation.
I used to think hyperinflation was inevitable, but now I realize that deflation is the more likely outcome.
The only reason we even have any inflation whatsoever is because of the Fed's QE programs.
Exactly! Isn't it wonderful! Bring on the boring! It was designed to be the most uber-uber-conservative portfolio available. Mission: avoid losing the money that's precious to you, no matter what. Thus far: mission accomplished.
But you know what's funny? It actually does fantastic on giving returns, too, despite it's extreme conservatism. Delivering about 9% annually for the last 44 years, or about 4-5% real. I hereby challenge you to a competition! Post your portfolio (you already posted all the components, I presume that's what you mean by "Here's how you do it, behold:", so now you need only post the percentages and re-balancing rules if any) and I'll post mine, and we can track them for the next five years and see whose portfolio wins. Deal?
The proper concern of society is the preservation of individual freedom; the proper concern of the individual is the harmony of society.
"Who would be free, themselves must strike the blow." - Byron
"Who overcomes by force, hath overcome but half his foe." - Milton
Looks like things may be rebounding already. As of right now, DOW is up over 200 points today. You can put away your crash helmets for another day.
In terms of percent changes, the recent drop is not really that big. At current levels, 500 point is only about a three percent move. Especially considering how long stocks have been moving upwards. There hasn't been a correction (considered a change of ten percent or more) in over three years which is a long time for stocks. Ten percent would be over 1,600 points on the DOW. It is normal for them to move up for a while, retreat, and then move ahead again.
October being a bad month for stock is a myth. There were two times there was a large drop in October so that sticks in people's minds. Stocks actually historically do worse in August. http://247wallst.com/investing/2014/...cks-in-august/
Looking at the S&P 500 over the last 40 years, September is the worst month (end of fiscal year- maybe people taking profits or locking in losses to offset gains for the year).
http://squirrelers.com/2011/01/31/2126/
Last edited by Zippyjuan; 10-17-2014 at 05:23 PM.
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
Note too that of the 20 largest percent single day gains in stocks, six were also in Octobers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...strial_Average
(the 778 point drop in 2008 was actually in September though true that is nearly October)
Last edited by Zippyjuan; 10-18-2014 at 03:59 PM.
Ha! TheCount, I had to laugh out loud at this. What a great connection you made.
It's absolutely apt, though. Buy low is a sound principle. It applies to stock indexes as well as precious metals as well as car insurance. Of course, just because it's low doesn't mean it won't go lower! But in retrospect, late 2008 (for example) was an excellent time to be rebalancing into the stock market (that is, buying more of it because it had gone down, to bring it back up to the previous percentage in your portfolio). Rules-based fixed-percentage portfolio management makes it automatic that you will do smart things like this that otherwise would be almost unthinkable -- no normal person thinks about buying stocks in a horrible stock crisis!
You are right- it does go in both directions. Didn't say it doesn't. I was trying to show two things.
1) Share price volatility is not that high right now as a percent of market values- 200 points when the DOW is about 16,000 is only 1.25%. It sounds like a lot- but isn't.
2) While there have been large losses a couple times in the last 50 years in October there have also been large gains in the month of October. Being October means nothing in trying to predict what may happen.
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